Calendrier du 02 juin 2022
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 02/06/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R1-09
RUHL Kim (Wisconsin Madison)
The Aggregate Effects of Supply Chain Disruptions
We study the aggregate effects of domestic and international supply chain disruptions similar to those in the post-Pandemic period in a two-country heterogeneous firm model with a rich set of supply chain frictions: shipping delays, fixed order costs, storage costs, uncertain delivery and uncertain demand. These frictions lead firms to hold inventories that depend on the source of supply, domestic or imported, and these inventories influence price setting. We show that transitory increases to aggregate shipping times similar to those in 2021 can be quite contractionary and raise prices, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inputs. These effects are larger when inventories are already at low levels, as in the U.S. and the World in 2021. The short-run effects on output are mitigated if they coincide with stimulus, but these lead to longer term contractions in consumption as more future production goes to rebuilding stocks. The aggregate effects on employment and production are much larger when there is an input-output structure as delays constrain production. The restocking cycle induced by these shocks is a source of endogenous persistence.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 02/06/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
ZENOU Yves (Monash University)
Towards a General Theory of Peer Effects
There is substantial empirical evidence showing that peer effects matter in many activities. The workhorse model in empirical work on peer effects is the linear-in-means (LIM) model where it is assumed that agents are emph{linearly} affected by the emph{mean} action of their peers. We provide two different theoretical models (based either on spillovers or on conformism behavior) that microfound the LIM model and show that they have very different policy implications. We also develop a new general model of peer effects that relaxes the assumptions of linearity and mean peer behavior and that encompasses the spillover, the conformist model, and the LIM model as special cases. Then, using data on adolescent activities in the U.S., we structurally estimate this model. We find that, for GPA, social clubs, self-esteem, and exercise, the spillover effect strongly dominates while, for risky behavior, study effort, fighting, smoking, and drinking, conformism plays a stronger role. We also find that for many activities, individuals do not behave according to the LIM model. We run some counterfactual policies and show that imposing the mean action as an individual social norm is misleading and leads to incorrect policy implications.
Behavior seminar
Du 02/06/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
ZINOVYEVA Natalia (Warwick University)
Women in top academic positions: Is there a trickle-down effect?
écrit avec Manuel Bagues and Giulia Vattuone
We study how the presence of women in top academic positions affects future hiring decisions and the characteristics of PhD students. We exploit a natural experiment that generated exogenous variation across Spanish university departments in the probability that male and female faculty are promoted to Associate and Full Professor positions. From 2002 to 2006, the composition of review committees was randomized, and applicants were significantly more likely to be promoted if, by luck of the draw, they were assessed by a committee including a colleague, a co-author, or a former advisor. Our analysis shows that the gender of these “marginal” successful applicants has long-term consequences on the gender composition of the department, the number of male and female PhD students, and their research topics.