Calendrier du 09 novembre 2020
Paris Migration Seminar
Du 09/11/2020 de 17:30 à 18:20
SCHNEIDER Sarah (Exeter)
Hosting Refugee and Voting for the Far-Right: Evidence from France
Does exposure to refugees change the political preferences of natives towards far-right parties, and how does this change in preferences occur? This paper examines the political economy of refugee-hosting. Using the opening of refugee centers in France between 1995 and 2017, I show that voting for far-right parties in cities with such opening between two presidential elections falls by about 2 percent. The drop in far-right voting is higher in municipalities with a small population, working in the primary and secondary sectors, with low educational levels and few migrants. I show that this negative effect can not be explained by an economic channel, but rather by a composition channel, through natives' avoidance, and a contact channel, through natives' exposure to refugees. I provide suggestive evidence that too-disruptive exposure to refugees, as measured by the magnitude of the inflows, the cultural distance and the media salience of refugees, can mitigate the beneficial effects of contact on reducing far-right support.
Texte intégral
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 09/11/2020 de 17:00 à 18:00
online
LIU Ce (Michigan State university)
Strategic Exploration: Preemption and Prioritization
écrit avec Yu Fu Wong
This paper provides a model of strategic exploration in which two competing players
simultaneously explore a set of alternatives over time to study search dynamics, payoff
divisions, and distributions of discovery time. The strategic tension is between preemption, i.e., the incentive to explore alternatives before the opponent explores them
in future, and prioritization, i.e., the incentive to explore alternatives with the highest
success probabilities. When players are symmetric in their speed of exploration, each
player randomizes to level his opponent’s posterior belief down, making greedy strategies best responses. In the asymmetric case, the weak player’s strategy is greedy, but
the strong player randomizes over alternatives with different posteriors and captures
a share of payoff disproportionately larger than his share of exploration capacity. The
weak player conducts extensive instead of intensive exploration, i.e., he covers many alternatives as the strong player does but never explores any alternative with cumulative
probability one. The overall discovery time decreases in asymmetry in the first-order
stochastic dominance sense.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 09/11/2020 de 16:00 à 17:15
RENAULT Jérôme (TSE)
Approximate Maximum Likelihood for Complex Structural Models
écrit avec Co-authors: D.T. Frazier and V. Czellar
Indirect Inference (I-I) is a popular technique for estimating complex parametric models whose likelihood function is intractable, however, the statistical efficiency of I-I estimation is questionable. While the efficient method of moments, Gallant and Tauchen (1996), promises efficiency, the price to pay for this efficiency is a loss of parsimony and thereby a potential lack of robustness to model misspecification. This stands in contrast to simpler I-I estimation strategies, which are known to display less sensitivity to model misspecification precisely due to their focus on specific elements of the underlying structural model. In this research, we propose a new simulation-based approach that maintains the parsimony of I-I estimation, which is often critical in empirical applications, but can also deliver estimators that are nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood. This new approach is based on using a constrained approximation to the structural model, which ensures identification and can deliver estimators that are nearly efficient. We demonstrate this approach through several examples, and show that this approach can deliver estimators that are nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood, when feasible, but can be employed in many situations where maximum likelihood is infeasible.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 09/11/2020 de 15:00 à 16:00
https://zoom.us/j/98281389413?pwd=cWxiVzVPdVdCYm1Ec2pDcDYybk5tQT09
BIGLAISER Gary (UNC)
Should I stay or should I go? Migrating away from an incumbent platform