Calendrier du 10 octobre 2024
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 10/10/2024 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
FORNARO Luca (CREI)
Fiscal Stagnation
écrit avec Martin Wolf
We study public debt sustainability in an economy with endogenous productivity growth. Our model has two key features: i) financing large primary surpluses entails fiscal distortions that depress investment and growth, ii) low growth increases the primary surpluses needed to stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Negative shocks to fundamentals or pessimistic animal spirits may drive the economy into a state of fiscal stagnation, characterized by high public debt, large fiscal distortions and low productivity growth. We discuss policy options to avoid/escape fiscal stagnation.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 10/10/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
LOUMEAU Gabriel (VU)
The Persistence of Urban Decline: Evidence from France's Largest Coal Basin
écrit avec Hans Koster (VU Amsterdam)
Urban decline and urban growth are not two sides of the same coin. When local positive shocks occur it typically leads to an expansion of the building stock, but when negative shocks hit, the existing building stock persists. We use the history of coal production in France's largest mining basin as a source of exogenous variation in negative economic shocks. The geological delimitation of the basin and the placement of large-scale housing developments in close proximity to mines provide us with the opportunity to exploit very local spatial variation to identify the causal determinants of urban decline. We show that housing prices today drop by 11% when entering the mining basin. About 40% of this gap can be attributed to lower housing quality, with the remaining portion being ascribed to spillover effects. We proceed by setting up a dynamic spatial equilibrium model to disentangle the impact of spillovers and housing quality in determining the persistence of urban decline. Our model matches key moments in the data and predicts a protracted period of decline persisting for several decades before reaching a long-term equilibrium.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 10/10/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1-15
MARLATS Chantal (LEMMA / Paris 2)
Racing with a rearview mirror: Output lag and investment dynamics
écrit avec Nicolas Klein and Lucie Ménager
We analyze a dynamic investment model in which short-lived agents sequentially decide how much to invest in a project of uncertain feasibility. The outcome of the project (success/failure) is not immediate but occurs after a fixed lag. We characterize the unique equilibrium and show that, in contrast with the case without lag, the unique equilibrium dynamics is not in threshold. If the initial belief is relatively high, investment decreases monotonically as agents become more pessimistic about the feasibility of the innovation. Otherwise, investment is not monotonic in the public belief or time: players alternate periods of no investment and periods of positive, decreasing investment. We thus identify a novel economic force that drives fluctuations in R&D spending, which is due to the output lag in the innovation process. We show that fluctuations also occur when the lag is stochastic, uncertain or when agents also decide when to invest
Behavior seminar
Du 10/10/2024 de 11:00 à 12:00
R2-21
NESJE Frikk (University of Copenhagen)
Intergenerational Discounting and Inequality
We study theories of justice that disentangle normative views on intergenerational discounting and intergenerational inequality. Any modular social welfare function is uniquely identified by a time-discounting function---capturing attitudes across generations---and an aggregator function---capturing attitudes towards inequality. The rich choice of such functions allows our theories to include the most common welfare criteria adopted in the literature as special cases and unveils yet unexplored families of alternative criteria. Our axiomatic characterization clarifies the properties and limits of disentangling discounting and inequality.