Calendrier du 12 septembre 2022
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 12/09/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
KAMENICA Emir (Chicago Booth, School of Business)
*Comparisons of Signals (joint with Ben Brooks and Alex Frankel)
A (Blackwell) experiment specifies the joint distribution of truth and the data generated by the experiment. A signal specifies the joint distribution of truth, the data generated by the signal, and the data generated by any other signal. Defining two experiments does not determine their joint informational content; defining two signals does. Blackwell (1953) studied (equivalent) comparisons of experiments; he characterized when one experiment is more valuable than another regardless of the preferences of the decision maker. We study (various, non-equivalent) comparisons of signals; among other comparisons, we characterize when one signal is more valuable than another regardless of the preferences of the decision maker and regardless of what other information the decision maker may have.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 12/09/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
SEMENOVA Vira (Berkeley)
Automated Inference on Sharp Bounds
Many causal parameters involving the joint distribution of potential outcomes in treated and control states cannot be point-identified, but only be bounded from above and below. The bounds can be further tightened by conditioning on pre-treatment covariates, and the sharp version of the bounds corresponds to using a full covariate vector. This paper gives a method for estimation and inference on sharp bounds determined by a linear system of under-identified equalities (e.g., as in Heckman et al (ReSTUD, 1997)). In the sharp bounds’ case, the RHS of this system involves a nuisance function of (many) covariates (e.g., the conditional probability of employment in treated or control state). Combining Neyman-orthogonality and sample splitting, I provide an asymptotically Gaussian estimator of sharp bound that does not require solving the linear system in closed form. I demonstrate the method in an empirical application to Connecticut’s Jobs First welfare reform experiment.
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 12/09/2022 de 13:00 à 14:00
Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle 116
FERNANDO Martin Espejo (KU Leuven)
Economic Sanctions as a Trade Policy Instrument? The 2014 Western-Russian Sanction Dispute
This article examines the impact on the Russian counter-sanctions (i.e., the agri-food product ban) introduced in Russia in August 2014 on the Russian imports and the Russian domestic market. On the one hand, by using the gravity model of international trade, this article quantifies the partial change in trade flows between Russia and its main trading partners in the short- and medium-term. Additionally, by performing a product- and country-level analysis, the article explores how the trade structure of Russia changes after the sanction dispute. On the other hand, a preliminary analysis on the Russian domestic market, and in particular, on the performance of the Russian agri-food sector is presented. Finally, some hypotheses about the use of the agri-food ban as a protectionist tool in response to the Russian accession to the WTO are explored.
Texte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Du 12/09/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
CHERITEL Côme (PSE)
Generational Carbon Accounts: decomposing the carbon footprint by age to assess the impact of age and generation on carbon emissions
There is no broad scientific consensus on the impact of population dynamics such as population ageing on greenhouse gas emissions and consequently on global warming. Given that the analysis of the links between population and emissions is mainly carried out in an aggregated way, it is not possible to identify demographic heterogeneity in emissions patterns. While the studies using micro-data are able to disaggregate consumption by demographic characteristics, they often do not perform an analysis based on a true accounting of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper proposes a methodology for constructing age-specific carbon accounts, i.e. a decomposition of the carbon footprint by age. First, by estimating a household consumption model, I decompose a household's consumption by types of goods and by household members. Successively with an Input-Output analysis, I estimate the carbon footprint of each category of goods and services by age group and subsequently derive a decomposition of the carbon footprint of a given country by type of goods. The method proposed is highly flexible and can therefore be applied to any countries with micro data on household consumption. Here I present preliminary results for France, Japan, South Korea and Mexico between 1995 and 2018. According to the initial results, for all survey years, the consumption of high footprint goods is concentrated among those aged between 30–60-year-olds. The decomposition of consumption shows low emissions attributable to the youngest age group due to the scale effect that occurs when a household increases in size. Those aged over 60 years old have a lower volume of transport-related emissions, and hence a smaller carbon footprint. These results differ slightly by country, although they are broadly similar. While it is tempting to assume from these results that population ageing may facilitate decarbonisation due to lower consumption amongst the older age groups, the results presented here are static and do not take into account the dynamic nature of the issue. In the next steps, this study plans to analyse the carbon footprint by age, distinguishing between life cycle effects, cohort effects and technological dynamics.