Calendrier du 13 mars 2023
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 13/03/2023 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
PAVAN Alessandro (Northwestern University)
*Knowing your Lemon before you Dump It - by Alessandro Pavan and Jean Tirole
In many games of interest (e.g., trade, entry, leadership, warfare, and partnership environments), one player (the leader) covertly acquires information about the state of Nature
before choosing whether to engage with another player (the follower). The friendliness of
the follower’s reaction depends on his beliefs about what motivated the leader’s choice to
engage. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the leader’s value of acquiring
more information to increase with the follower’s expectations. We then derive the economic
implications of this characterization, focusing on three closely related topics (cognitive traps,
disclosure, and cognitive styles), drawing policy implications.
Keywords: Adverse selection, expectation conformity, generalized lemons problem, endogenous information, cognitive traps.
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 13/03/2023 de 13:00 à 14:00
Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle 116
HAZEM Nada (CES - Cairo University)
Environmental provisions in trade agreements and firms’ performance: Evidence from Egyptian Firm-Level Data
This paper examines the effect of environmental provisions in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on firms’ exports, relying on evidence from Egyptian firm-level data during the period 2005-2016. The study relies on a gravity-type model to estimate the effect of environmental provisions in PTAs on the intensive trade margin (measured by the value of exports), using a Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood technique to account for the large share of zero trade flows. The paper also examines the effect on the extensive margin (measured by firm export probability, number of exported products per firm and destination, as well as entry and exit probabilities). Results show that the inclusion of environmental provisions in PTAs has a significant effect on both the intensive and extensive margins of trade. They increase the value of exports, the firm export participation, the firm entry probability, and the number of exported products by firm. At the same time, they reduce the firm exit probability. The effect of environmental provisions is more pronounced when they are supported by more than one enforcement mechanism. Moreover, the results of the intensive margin indicate that environmental provisions can stimulate exports of green products by Egyptian firms. However, they are not effective in hindering exports of dirty products, as the effect on the value of dirty exports was found to be also positive.
Texte intégral
Paris Migration Economics Seminar
Du 13/03/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.14, Campus Jourdan
GIUNTELLA Osea (U. Pittsburgh)
Ethnic churches, enclave neighborhoods and immigrant assimilation during the Age of Mass Migration
écrit avec Ran Abramitsky et Leah Boustan
From 1850 to 1913, more than 30 million European immigrants moved to US. Many immigrants lived in segregated enclaves. Did living in immigrant enclaves slow economic and cultural assimilation? To examine this question, we explore variation in the building of ethnic Catholic churches across otherwise similar neighborhoods. We collect data on the universe of Catholic churches in 4 large cities–Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia, New York. We merge with complete-count Census records for detailed information on local residents (1900-1930) and compare residents before and after a new church is constructed to similar neighborhoods using an event-study and a matched difference-in-differences approach. We find that the construction of a new Polish church anchors Polish residents to the neighborhood, slows their cultural assimilation, and reduces their economic assimilation. As a natural placebo, we show that the effects of a construction of a Polish church are not-significant when restricting the analysis to Polish Jews. We instead find little evidence of significant effects among Italians.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 13/03/2023 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
BURLIG Fiona (University of Chicago )
*The value of forecasts: Experimental evidence from developing-country agriculture
Climate risk is a key driver of low agricultural productivity in poor countries. We use a cluster-randomized trial to evaluate a novel risk-mitigation approach: long-range forecasts that provide information about the onset of the Indian summer monsoon well in advance of its arrival. In contrast to traditional ex post risk coping approaches, this novel ex ante technology provides accurate information significantly before the monsoon's arrival, enabling farmers to alter major up front input decisions. Moreover, forecasts have the potential to be disseminated cheaply, even at scale. We assign 250 villages to one of three groups: a control group; a group that receives an opportunity to purchase the forecast; and a group that is offered insurance. We present preliminary results, including on farmers' willingness-to-pay for forecasts; how forecasts affect farmer beliefs and up-front investments; and benchmark these preliminary effects against the canonical ex post loss mitigation tool: index insurance.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 13/03/2023
CHETVERIKOV Denis (UCLA)
Seminar postponed.