Calendrier du 13 mai 2024
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 13/05/2024 de 17:00 à 18:30
R1-09
HAUSER Daniel (Aalto)
Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification
écrit avec Aislinn Bohren
We link two approaches to biased belief formation: non-Bayesian updating rules and model misspecification. Each approach has advantages: updating rules transparently capture the underlying bias and are identifiable from belief data; misspecified models are `complete' and amenable to general analysis. We show that misspecified models can be decomposed into an updating rule and forecast of anticipated future beliefs. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for an updating rule and belief forecast to have a misspecified model representation, show the representation is unique, and construct it. This highlights the belief restrictions implicit in the misspecified model approach. Finally, we explore two ways to select belief forecasts---introspection-proof and naive consistent---and derive when a representation of each exists.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 13/05/2024 de 16:15 à 17:30
CREST, room 3001
SOKULLU Senay (University of Bristol)
Identification and Estimation of Demand Models with Endogenous Product Entry and Exit
écrit avec Co-authors: Victor Aguirregabiria and Alessandro Iaria
This paper deals with the endogeneity of firms’ entry and exit decisions in demand estimation. Product entry decisions lack a single crossing property in terms of demand unobservables, which causes the inconsistency of conventional methods dealing with selection. We present a novel and straightforward two-step approach to estimate demand while addressing endogenous product entry. In the first step, our method estimates a finite mixture model of product entry accommodating latent market types. In the second step, it estimates demand controlling for the propensity scores of all latent market types. We apply this approach to data from the airline industry.
Texte intégral
Paris Migration Economics Seminar
Du 13/05/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1-14
RUYSSEN Ilse (Ghent University)
Irrigation as mitigator for migratory aspirations following drought
écrit avec Alix Debray, Lucile Dehouck, Katrin Millock
This article aims to contribute to the ongoing debate on the causal relationship between climate and migration, which has remained inconclusive and often fails to consider alternative adaptive mechanisms. Specifically, we investigate the effect of drought on aspirations to migrate in and out of 11 West African countries, controlling for irrigation. Our analysis uses cross-country comparable Gallup World Poll surveys combined with fine-grained geo-local information on irrigation coverage as well as drought occurrence and intensity. Our preliminary findings confirm the potential of irrigation to diminish the negative effect of drought on migration aspirations. However, further robustness checks and estimations on different samples will allow determining whether this correlation would encourage individuals to continue investing in their local communities or rather enable them to fulfil their migration aspirations. Overall, the article highlights the potential of alternative adaptation mechanisms in shaping migration patterns and emphasizes the need for a more nuanced understanding of the climate-migration nexus
Régulation et Environnement
Du 13/05/2024 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1-09
BRETSCHGER Lucas (ETH Zurich)
Green Road is Open: Economic Pathway with a Carbon Price Escalator
The paper develops the concept of "Economic Pathways" (EPs), which char-
acterizes theory-based scenarios for an economy that strives for decarbonization
by the middle of the century. The theoretical framework derives closed-form an-
alytical solutions for consumption, innovation, emissions, and population. The
EPs di§er in the stringency of assumed policies and associated income and emis-
sion development. Unlike the well-known "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways",
they allow the inclusion of important causalities between the economy and the
environment and considerably narrow down the scope of likely future develop-
ments. The quantitative part serves to illustrate the long-term consequences of
climate policy. I show that deep decarbonization only moderately delays eco-
nomic development, but requires increasing escalation of the carbon price. The
paper argues that the adoption of more stringent climate policies becomes more
likely as the phase-out of fossil fuels increases. The "Green Road" is not only
feasible but also attractive and realistic.