Calendrier du 14 décembre 2020
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 14/12/2020 de 17:00 à 18:00
online
RENOU Ludovic (QMUL)
When are dynamic choices consistent with learning from common information?
A researcher observes a sequence of choices made by multiple agents in a binary-state, binary-action environment. Agents differ in terms of their initial prior beliefs about the unknown state, their preferences or both, but update beliefs based on common information in each time period. The state evolves according to a commonly known stochastic process and we separately examine the cases where the state is time-invariant and time-varying. We characterize the set of choices that are consistent with some preferences, priors, common information and stochastic process for the state. We apply our results to committee voting where they imply that the heterogeneity of voters in their bias versus their ideology can lead to very different sets of voting patterns.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 14/12/2020 de 16:00 à 17:15
FREYBERGER Joachim (University of Bonn)
Normalizations and misspecification in skill formation models
An important class of structural models investigates the determinants of skill formation and the optimal timing of interventions. To achieve point identification of the parameters, researcher typically normalize the scale and location of the unobserved skills. This paper shows that these seemingly innocuous restrictions can severely impact the interpretation of the parameters and counterfactual predictions. For example, simply changing the units of measurements of observed variables might yield ineffective investment strategies and misleading policy recommendations. To tackle these problems, this paper provides a new identification analysis, which pools all restrictions of the model, characterizes the identified set of all parameters without normalizations, illustrates which features depend on these normalizations, and introduces a new set of important policy-relevant parameters that are identified under weak assumptions and yield robust conclusions. As a byproduct, this paper also presents a general and formal definition of when restrictions are truly normalizations.
Texte intégral
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 14/12/2020 de 13:00 à 14:00
https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/93971422235?pwd=eDdyZEJ2SUpsQnByUnR5eUpRMkV5Zz09
RASTER Tom ()
The Hanseatic League versus its competitors: Evidence from millions of shipments
Long-distance trade has emerged and expanded throughout history despite abundant obstacles. How trade regimes, such as merchant guilds, were able to operate under such circumstances has attracted attention from scholars of institutions and market imperfections. However, whether merchant guilds were conducive to overall growth or only benefited a few members of society remains disputed; as is their use of formal versus informal rules in their internal functioning (e.g. Greif, 1989; Ogilvie, 2011). To the best of my knowledge, this paper is the first to quantitatively study how the trade of a merchant guild compares to that of their competitors who do not belong to any guild. I focus on the Hanseatic League (1100s-1669), a trade confederation of, at its peak, almost 200 towns in the German Lands and surrounding areas. Newly collected archival data reveals the extent and timing of each town’s participation in the League’s meetings. I combine this information with expansive, novel data of nearly all maritime trade (1.5 million shipments) between the Baltic and North Sea areas from 1497 to 1700. During this crucial period in history, institutions of the First Commercial Revolution gave way to those of the Second, which oversaw the beginning of Atlantic trade. In the empirical analysis, I exploit features of the trade data to distinguish, for each shipment, whether the trade was conducted by the Hanseatic League, more independent Dutch traders, or by another trading regime. I then compare trade across these regimes along various dimensions, such as trade value, prices (volatility), and type of goods (including new luxuries). In doing so, I test various hypotheses raised in the literature, including the relationship between trade regimes and growth. Preliminary findings suggest marked differences across trade regimes and contribute to our understanding of trade institutions, historical and contemporary, that operate in environments where coordination is difficult.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 14/12/2020 de 12:00 à 13:00
https://zoom.us/j/98281389413?pwd=cWxiVzVPdVdCYm1Ec2pDcDYybk5tQT09
REGUANT Mar (Northwes)
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Paris Game Theory Seminar
Du 14/12/2020 de 11:00 à 12:00
On line
MARLATS Chantal (LEMMA / Paris 2)
Voluntary confinement