Calendrier du 15 octobre 2024
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 15/10/2024 de 17:30 à 18:30
R1-09
TRAVERSO Fabio Enrico (TU Darmstadt)
Automation, trade and political outcomes: evidence from the United States
The China shock and Industrial robot adoptions are documented to have deeply affected labour markets in the US. This paper investigates whether the joint effect of these two shocks can be estimated in order to understand their impact on political outcomes, i.e. congressional elections and political donations.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 15/10/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
R221
TESCHKE Eric ()
Targeting Dynamic Poverty
écrit avec Jack Willis
Many social programs aim to target the poor. However, while poverty is dynamic, recipient lists are often updated infrequently. We consider the implications for targeting performance, how to measure it, and how to improve it, in the context of a targeting method widely used in developing countries: Proxy Means Tests (PMTs). Using panel data in seven developing countries, we show large annual movements of households into and out of observed poverty. This churn implies rapid deterioration in the performance of perfect targeting, based on observed poverty in time zero. In contrast, the performance of PMTs, while initially poor (consistent with the literature), only deteriorates slowly over time, and is as good as perfect targeting after only one year. Targeting future poverty does no better, while updating PMTs improves performance over time, but only when done comprehensively. We argue that distinguishing chronic poverty, transient poverty, and measurement error is central to measuring and improving targeting performance, and investigate mechanisms using high-frequency data.