Calendrier du 15 septembre 2022
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 15/09/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R2-01
OUSS Aurélie (UPenn)
Measuring Effects of Conviction and Incarceration on Recidivism using Multi-Treatment Random Judge Designs
écrit avec John Eric Humphries, Megan Stevenson, Kamelia Stavreva and Winnie van Dijk
This paper examines the effects of conviction without incarceration – a common outcome of criminal court proceedings – and of incarceration on recidivism. We study felony cases in Virginia that are quasi-randomly assigned to judges, and make three contributions. First, we present estimates of the impact of conviction on recidivism based on a 2SLS regression with judge stringency instruments. If given a causal interpretation, our estimates would imply large and sustained increases in recidivism from receiving a conviction relative to dismissal. Using a similar research design, we find that incarceration reduces recidivism in the first year, likely due to incapacitation, with no longer-term effects. These conclusions about incarceration are further supported by analysis based on discontinuities in sentencing guidelines. Second, we discuss how, in multiple-treatment settings, some models of judge decision making facilitate the interpretation of 2SLS estimates as well-defined treatment effects, while others do not. In particular, we consider which models of the judge decision process imply that 2SLS estimates interpretable treatment effects for a particular margin, such as conviction vs dismissal, or incarceration vs conviction. Third, we discuss and implement several methods which allow us to recover margin-specific treatment effects under sets of assumptions where 2SLS estimates do not. Most of these yield conclusions similar in sign and magnitude to those drawn based on the 2SLS estimates, although they are sometimes less precise. We conclude that conviction may be an important and potentially overlooked driver of recidivism, while incarceration mainly has shorter-term incapacitation effects
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 15/09/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1-14, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
BLUMENTHAL Benjamin (ETH Zurich)
Policymaking under Influence
Policymaking is a fraught process: politicians often fail to change the status quo despite their best efforts. Interest groups (IGs) can, for better or for worse, affect the fate of politicians' proposals. I consider a model of policymaking with an imperfectly effective politician and an IG who, through costly lobbying, can affect the likelihood that the politician-proposed policy successfully replaces the status quo. I show that policymaking can be affected through threats of lobbying or active lobbying, depending on the cost of lobbying, the strength of the IG's influence, and the alignment of preferences between the IG and the politician. In particular, I show that the relationship between the IG's ability to shape policymaking and the cost-effectiveness of its lobbying can be non-monotonic. I also discuss empirical implications of the model and highlight the importance of taking into account status quo policies to study the welfare implications of IGs' activities.
Behavior seminar
Du 15/09/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
R2-21
BECKER Maja (Université de Toulouse )
*Common motives underlie identity construction across highly diverse cultural contexts
*Identity motives—strivings to view oneself in certain ways—affect people’s willingness to protect their health, buy consumer products, vote for politicians, or die for their country. Yet, research into identity motives has focused mainly on a small fraction of humanity who inhabit “Western” societies. I will present findings from two large studies in which we measured identity motives among >12,000 members of cultural groups spanning 35 nations on all inhabited continents. Across highly diverse cultural, socioeconomic, political, and environmental contexts, people structured their identities to view themselves as: accepted by others (belonging), positively valued (positive self-regard), distinguished from others (distinctiveness), persisting through time (continuity), competent and capable (efficacy), and having a life that matters (meaning). These common motives underlie the superficially divergent expressions of identity observed across human cultures.
Behavior Working Group
Du 15/09/2022 de 10:00 à 11:00
STAROPOLI Carine (Université Rouen Normandie & PSE)
Impact des tarifs sur les choix de mode de transport