Calendrier du 16 avril 2018
Régulation et Environnement
Du 16/04/2018 de 12:00 à 14:00
Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
TRAEGER Christian (University of Oslo)
ACE – Analytic Climate Economy
The paper develops an analytic integrated assessment model of climate change.
It enhances our current understanding of climate policy and explains crucial relations to the
broader audience. The model offers a novel framework to address climate change uncertainties.
The analytic solution overcomes Bellman’s curse of dimensionality for a wide range
of stochastic processes. I analyze the policy implications of the main climate uncertainties
and show the different welfare implications of “objective” uncertainty, epistemological
uncertainty, and anticipated learning. In contrast to earlier suggestions in the literature,
uncertainty is not more relevant to climate change evaluation than discounting, but uncertainty
makes the policy recommendations even more sensitive to the calibration of the
discount rates and its individual components than under certainty. The present Analytic Climate
Economy (ACE) is the first analytic model comprising all the components considered
essential for quantitative policy advising.