Calendrier du 16 mai 2023
Special Seminar
Du 16/05/2023 de 14:00 à 17:00
R2-01
Economic History Seminar
Du 16/05/2023 de 14:00 à 17:00
PSE-ENS Jourdan. 58 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris :Auditorium
The two most influential books in economic history of the new millennium, Ken Pomeranz’ The Great Divergence, and Thomas Piketty Capital in the 21st century, offer two complementary views: the former puts the accent on areas, regions, eventually national differentiation over time, in terms of growth and despite initially quite similar structures and institutions. The latter insists on social inequalities within countries, which are then investigated in their historical and comparative perspective.
For the first time, these two authors will be gathered in a round table; the aim is precisely to discuss the interplay between their perspectives, in both analytical and historical empirical terms. Did the great divergence modify social inequalities in the concerned, and other areas? And viceversa, how were social inequalities influenced by the great divergence? And, even more broadly, how do we investigate similar interplays over a longer span of time (in particular in the 20th century) and in other areas (for example Africa).
Piketty’s latest book, A brief history of equality (2022) offers a first attempt to answer these (and other questions). This round table, part of the debates organized by the François Simiand Center of Economic and Social History at the Paris School of Economics and the EHESS, will start from this synthesis to discuss further integrations and developments.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 16/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan
YANG Li (University of Michigan and BREAD)
The long-run political effects of refugee shock: Evidence from post-WWII Germany
Given the exciting emerging literature on long-run impact of massive forced (im)migration on economic growth and education, the impact of forced migration on people’s political attitude towards to immigrants remains largely unexplored. We contribute to the literature by exploring the persistent impact of one of the largest displacements in human history: the eight million ethnic Germans were expelled from their domiciles in Eastern Europe and transferred to West Germany. Using both district and municipality level data, we identified significant positive impact of forced migration on today’s extreme voting and anti immigrant/refugees sentiment. Our results are significant though various robustness check. Furthermore, using a unique data set from SOEP (Social and Economic Panel of Germany), we are able to for the first time explore in detail the impact channels of the force migration. Two main findings are in order. First, the second generation of forced migrants (about 17% of the total adult population) are more likely to be anti-immigrant/refugees, this is opposite to the first generation of forced migrants. Second, overall, we find positive but not significant effect of forced migration on extreme voting and anti-immigrant/refugees sentiments of the local German (who is not first or second generation of forced migrants). However, people from the district with high unemployment rate of the forced migrants in 1950, are significantly more likely to vote for Afd and have anti-immigrant/refugees sentiments. Additionally, we also provide several piece of evidence supporting the contact hypothesis. We find in the district with high share of forced migrant tenants, people are less likely to vote for Afd.