Calendrier du 18 février 2020
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 18/02/2020 de 17:00 à 18:00
THEBAULT Georgia (PSE)
Students' Preferences, University Admission and Post-Secondary Trajectories in a Non-selective System
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 18/02/2020 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
CASANUEVA ARTIS Annalí ()
Can chant on the street change Parliament's tune ?. The effects of the 15M social movement on electoral results
This paper investigates the causal effects of the main demonstration organized by a wider social movement in Spain (15M) on short and medium-term electoral results. Using a unique self-constructed database of the number of demonstrators in the main demonstration of the 15M movement, I estimate the electoral effects of the movement six months, four, five, six and eights years after the movement took place. Using unpleasant weather (either rainy or too hot) as an instrument for the number of participants in the demonstration of the 19th of June 2011, I find that in regions that hosted relatively bigger demonstrations, voting patterns corresponded more closely to the messages spread by the movement compared to other regions and that those effects last over time, with dynamic differences depending on the political offer in different elections. I also investigate the mechanisms and find evidence supporting an increased concern about corruption as well as the creation of a network on social media around the 15M movement that was used afterwards by the new party Podemos to spread its message. Taken together, these results show that new social movements can have medium term lasting effects and can notably change the composition of a country's Parliament.