Calendrier du 21 octobre 2020
Paris Migration Seminar
Du 21/10/2020 de 17:30 à 18:30
MICHAEL CLEMENS (Center for Global Developpement)
MENDOLA Mariapia(Université de Milan-Bicocca)
Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson's Paradox
How does immigration affect incomes in the countries migrants go to, and how do rising incomes shape emigration from the countries they leave? The answers depend on whether people who migrate have higher or lower productivity than people who do not migrate. Theory on this subject has long exceeded evidence. We present estimates of emigrant selection on both observed and unobserved determinants of income, from across the developing world. We use nationally representative survey data on 7,013 people making active, costly preparations to emigrate from 99 developing countries during 2010–2015. We model the relationship between these measures of selection and the income elasticity of migration. In low-income countries, people actively preparing to emigrate have 30 percent higher incomes than others overall, 14 percent higher incomes explained by observable traits such as schooling, and 12 percent higher incomes explained by unobservable traits. Within low-income countries the income elasticity of emigration demand is 0.23. The world's poor collectively treat migration not as an inferior good, but as a normal good. Any negative effect of higher income on emigration within subpopulations can reverse in the aggregate, because the composition of subpopulations shifts as incomes rise—an instance of Simpson's paradox.
Texte intégral
Development Economics Seminar
Du 21/10/2020 de 16:30 à 18:00
via ZOOM
NAVARRO-SOLA Laia (IIES Stockholm)
Secondary School Expansion through Televised Lessons: The Labor Market Returns of the Mexican Telesecundaria
In areas where there is an insufficient supply of qualified teachers, delivering instruction through technology may be a solution to meet the demand for education. This paper analyzes the educational and labor market impacts of an expansion of junior secondary education in Mexico through telesecundarias - schools using televised lessons, currently serving 1.4 million students. To isolate the effects of telesecundarias, I exploit their staggered rollout from 1968 to present. I show that for every additional telesecundaria per 50 children, ten students enroll in junior secondary education and two pursue further education. Using the telesecundaria expansion as an instrument, I find that an additional year of education induced by telesecundaria enrollment increases average income by 17.6%. This increase in income comes partly from increased labor force participation and a shift away from agriculture and the informal sector. Since schooling decisions are sequential, the estimated returns combine the direct effect of attending telesecundarias and the effects of further schooling. I decompose these two effects by interacting the telesecundaria expansion with baseline access to upper secondary institutions. Roughly 84% of the estimated returns come directly from junior secondary education, while the remaining 16% are returns to higher educational levels.
Du 21/10/2020 de 12:30 à 14:00
via Zoom
Economic History Seminar
Du 21/10/2020 de 12:30 à 14:00
Zoom
CADOREL Jean-Laurent ()
An International Monetary Explanation of the 1929 Crash of the New York Stock Exchange
The crash of the New York Stock Exchange in October 1929 was a liquidity crisis caused by the sudden removal of brokers’ loans. Based on high-frequency data, this paper documents how the Bank of England’s unexpected September discount rate rise attracted short-term international capital flows. The rate rise had such exceptional effects because it caused a reallocation of gold reserves, attracting gold from the Americas to Europe, threatening some Latin American countries’ participation in the gold standard, thereby depreciating the value of their debts in New York, and reducing bondholders’ willingness to lend.