Applied Economics Lunch Seminar

Du 21/11/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30

Salle R2.01

TZINTZUN Iván (PSE)

Extreme temperatures during pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes: Evidence from 2007 to 2019 Brazilian national birth data

This research provides the first estimates of the impacts of prenatal exposure to extreme temperatures on infant health at birth in a developing country by using the latest national birth data from 2007 to 2019 from all Brazilian municipalities. The identification strategy relies on the use of year and monthly-by-municipality fixed effects which control for any effect associated with climatic or socioeconomic conditions typical of specific months of the year in a given municipality. So recurrent level effects – possibly associated with wet and dry seasons, harvests, availability of food, etc. – are all washed away in the municipality-by-month fixed-effects. I find that an additional day with mean temperature greater than 29 C increases preterm births and low birthweight. Not surprisingly, the adverse effects are borne disproportionately less educated mothers, suggesting that the projected increase in extreme temperatures may further exacerbate the existing birth health disparities across different SES groups. This paper also contributes by investigating the impact of deviations from the normal weather pattern, to identify the extreme weather events after accounting for the adaptation response. I find that prenatal exposure to extreme heat two standard deviations above the municipalities historic average induces preterm births. These results are timely and policy relevant, considering the recent weather trends with rising temperatures and frequent extreme weather events and the lack of evidence on LMICs.