Calendrier du 21 septembre 2023
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 21/09/2023 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
MESTIERI Marti (CREI)
Structural Change in Innovation
écrit avec Danial Lashkari and Diego Comin
We document structural change in innovation using historical patent data starting in the 1850s, and R&D expenditure and TFP growth since 1947. Innovation moved from agricultural sectors to manufacturing, and subsequently to services. To account for this structural change in innovation, we develop a multi-sector endogenous growth model in which the direction of innovation evolves endogenously. The model provides a general equilibrium framework that incorporates the classical demand-pull and technology-push drivers of innovation. Sectors differ in their innovation technologies, and the extent to which they benefit from knowledge spillovers (technology-push). Due to nonhomotheticity in demand, relative sectors’ market sizes move towards income-elastic sectors along the growth process (demand pull). A calibrated version of our model can account for the joint structural change in innovation and sectoral output observed in the US. Our framework can also be used to assess future paths of sectoral productivity (to evaluate the potential extent of Baumol’s disease) and optimal innovation policy.
Du 21/09/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
brown bag Travail et Économie Publique
Du 21/09/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
GETHIN Amory (PSE)
Distributional Growth Accounting: Education and the Reduction of Global Poverty, 1980-2022
This article studies the role played by education in the decline of global poverty. In a companion paper, I estimate that the rise of government redistribution in the form of cash transfers, education, healthcare, and other public services accounts for 30% of worldwide poverty reduction since 1980 (Gethin, 2023). In this paper, I incorporate in this analysis the causal impact of schooling on pretax incomes, combining survey microdata covering 95% of the world's population with a simple model of education and the wage structure. Private returns to schooling account for 50-60% of global economic growth, 60-70% of income gains among the world's poorest 20% individuals, and 60-90% of the decline in global gender inequality since 1980. Combining direct redistribution and indirect investment benefits from education brings the total contribution of public policies to global poverty reduction to 50-80% or more.
Macro Workshop
Du 21/09/2023 de 12:00 à 14:00
R1-15
MATHERON Julien (PSE)
Make-up Strategies with Finite Planning Horizons but Forward-Looking Asset Prices
How effective make-up strategies are depends heavily on how forward-looking agents are. Workhorse models find them suspiciously effective. Models that discount the future further find them much less effective, but imply that agents discount the very perception of future policy rates (financial markets do not notice them, or deem them non-credible). We amend one leading solution to the forward-guidance puzzle—Woodford’s finite planning horizons—to the assumption that financial markets have rational expectations on policy rates, and incorporate them into the long-term nominal interest rates faced by all. We find that make-up strategies that compensate for a past deficit of accommodation after an ELB episode have sizably better stabilization properties than inflation targeting.
Behavior seminar
Du 21/09/2023 de 11:00 à 12:00
R2-21
MARCUS Michelle ((Vanderbilt University))
Burying the Lead: Effects of Public Lead Service Line Replacements on Blood Lead Levels and Property Values
Despite the well-known health consequences of lead exposure, an estimated 6 to 10 million lead service lines still deliver drinking water to homes throughout the US. Disadvantaged communities are disproportionately exposed to lead service lines, contributing to health and human capital disparities. This paper studies the effects of public lead service line replacements using children's blood lead test data with confidential address information, home sales data, and geocoded public service line installation data from Rhode Island. Replacing public lead service lines significantly reduces child blood lead levels by about 0.4 ug/dL, or 13 percent, and increases the price of home sales by 7-8 percent, indicating that homeowners value these replacements