Calendrier du 22 avril 2024
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 22/04/2024 de 17:00 à 18:30
R1-09
IIJIMA Ryota (Yale)
Multidimensional Screening with Rich Consumer Data
écrit avec Mira Frick and Yuhta Ishii
We study multi-good sales by a seller who has access to rich data about a buyer's valuations for the goods. Optimal mechanisms in such multi-dimensional screening problems are known to in general be complicated and not resemble mechanisms observed in practice. Thus, we instead analyze the optimal convergence rate of the seller's revenue to the first-best revenue as the amount of data grows large. Our main result provides a rationale for a simple and widely used class of mechanisms---(pure) bundling---by showing that these mechanisms allow the seller to achieve the optimal convergence rate. In contrast, we find that another simple class of mechanisms---separate sales---yields a suboptimal convergence rate to the first-best and thus is outperformed by bundling whenever the seller has sufficiently precise information about consumers.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 22/04/2024 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1-09
KELLOGG Ryan (University of Chicago)
*The End of Oil
Abstract: It is now plausible to envision scenarios in which global demand for crude oil falls to essentially zero by the end of this century, driven by a combination of improvements in clean energy technologies and adoption of increasingly stringent climate policies. This paper asks what such a demand decline might mean for global oil supply once the industry adopts a belief that the decline is upon it. One concern is the well-known “green paradox” effect: because oil is an exhaustible resource, producers may accelerate near-term extraction in order to beat the demand decline. This reaction would increase near-term CO2 emissions and could possibly even lead the total present value of climate damages to be greater than if demand had not declined at all. However, because increasing or even maintaining the rate of oil production requires investments in wells and other infrastructure, and because such investments can be long-lived, the opposite effect may also occur: an anticipated demand decline causes firms to reduce their investments, hence decreasing near-term production and CO2 emissions. I develop a tractable model that incorporates both of these effects in a market with heterogeneous producers—while also capturing industry features such as exercise of market power by low-cost OPEC producers and marginal drilling costs that increase with the rate of drilling—and examine quantitatively which effect is likely to outweigh the other. Preliminary results indicate that for model inputs with the strongest empirical support, the disinvestment effect dominates the traditional green paradox effect. In order for an anticipated demand decline to substantially increase near-term global oil production, I find that industry investments must have very short time horizons, and that producers must have discount rates that are comparable to U.S. treasury bill rates.