Calendrier du 22 mai 2023
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 22/05/2023 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
KELLNER Christian (University of Southampton)
*Timing decisions under model uncertainty
écrit avec Sarah Auster
We study the effect of ambiguity on timing decisions. An agent faces a stopping
problem with an uncertain stopping payoff and a stochastic deadline. The agent is
unsure about the correct model quantifying the uncertainty and seeks to maximize
her payoff guarantee over all plausible models. If model uncertainty only concerns the
deadline, the DM optimally stops as soon as this is optimal under one of the models.
If there is also uncertainty about the stopping payoff, the DM often has incentives to
continue at the point in time where she originally intends to stop. To prevent this from
happening, a forward-looking agent may then opt to stop prematurely.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 22/05/2023 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE, 48 boulevard Jourdan, R1-15
WüTHRICH Kaspar (UC San Diego)
(When) should you adjust inferences for multiple hypothesis testing?
écrit avec Co-authors: Davide Viviano and Paul Niehaus
Multiple hypothesis testing practices vary widely, without consensus on which are appropriate when. We provide an economic foundation for these practices. In studies of multiple interventions or sub-populations, adjustments may be appropriate depending on scale economies in the research production function, with control of classical notions of compound errors emerging in some but not all cases. Studies with multiple outcomes motivate testing using a single index, or adjusted tests of several indices when the intended audience is heterogeneous. Data on actual research costs in two applications suggest both that some adjustment is warranted and that standard procedures are overly conservative.
Texte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Du 22/05/2023 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
VONA Francesco (University of Milan)
*Climate Policy and the Carbon Content of Jobs
"Climate policies have heterogeneous labour
market impacts across sectors and occupations. However, there are no
clear indexes to measure the worker's exposure to ambitious
climate policy. We propose an occupation-based approach to measure the
worker's vulnerability to climate policies. Using rich
establishment-level data for France, we construct a time-varying measure
of the carbon content of jobs for more than 400 occupations
over the period 2003-2018. We show that carbon intensive occupations
exhibit a mild catching-up in terms of emissions per worker, are
geographically concentrated and highly exposed to other structural
transformations (automation and trade). We then estimate
the extent to which the impact of energy prices, a proxy of climate
policies, is mediated by the occupational carbon intensity using a
shift-share instrument. Both wages and employment losses are
significantly larger for carbon intensive occupations, also when
we carefully control for the exposure to other structural shocks.
Importantly, a sector-based approach to measure vulnerability to climate
policies gives less clear and robust results on policy effects than an
occupation-based ones. "