Calendrier du 25 octobre 2018
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 25/10/2018 de 15:45 à 17:00
PSE - 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
GIORDANO Claire (Bank of Italy)
*Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area
écrit avec Michael Fidora and Martin Schmitz (ECB)
Building upon a behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model, estimated at a quarterly frequency since 1999 on a broad sample of 57 countries, this paper assesses whether both the size and persistence of real effective exchange rate misalignments from the levels implied by economic fundamentals have been affected by the adoption of a single currency. A comparison of real misalignments across different country groupings (euro area, non-euro area advanced and emerging economies) in the post-1999 period shows they are smaller in the euro area than in its main trading partners. However, in the euro area real disequilibria are more persistent, although not anymore after the global financial crisis. An improvement in the quality of regulation and institutions is found to reduce the persistence of real exchange rate misalignments, plausibly by removing real rigidities.
Texte intégral
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 25/10/2018 de 12:30 à 13:45
GLOVER Dylan (INSEAD)
Job Search and Intermediation under Discrimination: Evidence from Terrorist Attacks in France
Using detailed, high frequency data on potential job matches made through the French Public Employment Service (PES), I present evidence showing that search intensity both by and for minority jobseekers is highly sensitive to a shock that increases bias against their type. On average, minority jobseekers -- defined as having a first name of Arabic origin -- significantly reduce their job search effort in the 10 weeks following the January 2015 "Charlie Hebdo" attacks compared to majority jobseekers, defined as those with classically French sounding first names. Employers also reduce their search effort for minority candidates for their high quality contracts. This drop is offset by a substantial increase in counselor matching effort made for minorities after the shock, but only in areas with low latent levels of discrimination. In addition, this counselor compensatory effect is driven by counselors who are themselves minorities and for majority counselors who specialize in getting the most marginalized jobseekers back to work. Overall, negative employment effects on minorities are only observed in micromarkets outside of the PES' purview. This suggests that labor market intermediaries may play an important role in mitigating adverse shocks that affect labor supply.