Calendrier du 25 novembre 2022
PSE Internal Seminar
Du 25/11/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2-01
DIETRICH Franz(PSE, CNRS)
DISDIER Anne-Célia(PSE & INRAE)
Deliberation and the Wisdom of Crowds
Co-author: K. Spiekermann (LSE)
Does pre-voting group deliberation increase majority competence? To address this question, we develop a non-game-theoretic model of opinion formation and deliberation. Two new jury theorems, one pre-deliberation and one post-deliberation, suggest that deliberation is beneficial. Successful deliberation mitigates three voting failures: (1) overcounting widespread evidence, (2) neglecting evidential inequality, and (3) neglecting evidential complementarity. Simulations and theoretic arguments confirm this. But there are five systematic exceptions where deliberation reduces majority competence, always through increasing Failure 1. Our analysis recommends deliberation that is ‘participatory', ‘even', but possibly ‘unequal', i.e., that involves substantive sharing, privileges no evidences, but possibly privileges some persons.
Texte intégral
EPCI (Economie politique du changement institutionnel) Seminar
Du 25/11/2022 de 11:00 à 12:30
Salle du 6e, Maison des Sciences Économiques, 112 Bd de l'Hôpital, 75013 Paris
PALOMBRINI Stéfano (U. Paris 8 Vincennes-St Denis, LED)
Multidimensional social conflict and institutional change
écrit avec with Bruno Amable (Université de Genève)
This paper proposes a political economy approach of social conflict, institutional change and crises based on the diversity of perceived interests among social groups. The multidimensional conflict includes ideology, (formal) institutions, and politics. Each of these dimensions corresponds to a relatively autonomous sphere, which has its own logic of functioning. Social groups may be in a dominant or dominated position in one or the other dimension, and the nature of social conflict reflects the differences in positions of the various social groups in these dimensions. Political stability hinges on the existence of a dominant social bloc., i.e. a social alliance supporting the ruling political actors. The implementation of (formal) institutional change by these political actors is driven by the search for such a support. Crisis situations correspond the rupture of the dominant social bloc. Attempts to emerge from the crisis with the reconstitution of a dominant social bloc will have more or less chance of success depending on the possibility of finding a political strategy that can make the expectations of social groups with different perceived interests compatible. Using examples from the French economic and political situation in recent decades, we show how the proposed analytical framework can inform the study of institutional change in situations of social crisis.