Calendrier du 25 mai 2023
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 25/05/2023 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-01
FERRANTE Francesco (Federal Reserve Board)
Devaluations, Deposit Dollarization and Household Heterogeneity
écrit avec Nils Gornemann
We study currency devaluation episodes in a small open economy heterogeneous households model with leverage-constrained banks. Our framework captures three stylized facts about liability dollarization in emerging economies: i) banks and firms borrow in foreign currency; ii) households save in dollar-denominated local bank deposits; and iii) such deposits are mainly held by wealthier households. The resulting currency mismatch in our economy causes an erosion of banks' net worth during a devaluation. We show that the subsequent macroeconomic decline is amplified by a strong reduction of consumption among poorer households in response to rising borrowing costs and falling labor income. Richer households are partially insured, as they are holding a larger share of their wealth in foreign currency denominated assets. We show that larger currency hedging by wealthier households deepens the recession and amplifies the negative implications for poorer agents. When deposit dollarization is high welfare gains can arise if monetary policy dampens a depreciation.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 25/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
HUBER Martin (University of Fribourg)
Testing the identification of causal effects in observational data
This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for and a suspected instrument. Under a causal structure commonly found in empirical applications, the testable conditional independence of the suspected instrument and the outcome given the treatment and the covariates has two implications. First, the instrument is valid, i.e. it does not directly affect the outcome (other than through the treatment) and is unconfounded conditional on the covariates. Second, the treatment is unconfounded conditional on the covariates such that the treatment effect is identified. We suggest tests of this conditional independence based on machine learning methods that account for covariates in a data-driven way and investigate their asymptotic behavior and finite sample performance in a simulation study. We also apply our testing approach to evaluating the impact of fertility on female labor supply when using the sibling sex ratio of the first two children as supposed instrument, which by and large points to a violation of our testable implication for the moderate set of socio-economic covariates considered.
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 25/05/2023 de 11:00 à 12:00
Salle R1.09
RIEDEL Nadine (University of Münster)
What Happens when you Tax the Rich? – Evidence from South Africa
écrit avec with Christopher Axelson, Antonia Hohmann, Jukka Pirttilä, Roxanne Raabe
In 2017, South Africa increased its top personal income tax (PIT) rate in an attempt to enhance tax revenue collection and reduce after-tax income inequality. Drawing on the population of personal income tax returns and a transparent empirical identification design, we show that treated taxpayers strongly lowered their reported taxable income in response to the tax reform, translating into an elasticity of taxable income of around 1. The size of the response is particularly pronounced at the very top of the income distribution and among the self-employed. We reject a significant increase in PIT tax revenue collection. The impact of the reform on after-tax income inequality hinges on whether observed income adjustments reflect real or reporting responses. Preliminary analyses show no response in treated taxpayers’ labor supply and job effort.
Du 25/05/2023
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-01
FERRANTE Francesco (Federal Reserve Board)