Calendrier du 27 mai 2021
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 27/05/2021 de 12:30 à 13:30
Using Zoom
SIEGLOCH Sebastian (Manheim)
Direct, Spillover and Welfare Effects of Regional Firm Subsidies
écrit avec Nils Wehrhöfer, Tobias Etzel
We analyze the effects of a large place-based policy, subsidizing up to 50% of investment costs of manufacturing firms in East Germany after reunification. We show that a 1-percentage-point decrease in the subsidy rate leads to a 1% decrease in manufacturing employment. We document important spillovers for untreated sectors in treated counties, untreated counties connected via trade and local taxes, whereas we do not find spillovers on counties in the same local labor market. We show that the policy is at least as efficient as cash transfers to the unemployed, but is more effective in curbing regional inequality.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 27/05/2021 de 12:30 à 13:30
online
PATTY Morgan (LEDa, PSL)
Top dominance
To deal with crucial issues of iterated elimination of weakly or strictly dominated strategies (IEWDS or IESDS), we propose a new elimination procedure. Our procedure, named iterated elimination of top dominated strategies (IETDS), is based on the new notion of top dominance. It is more consistent than IESDS in a certain sense. Top dominance is more restrictive than weak dominance (and may be more restrictive than strict dominance): it requires weak dominance and strict domination of the strategy on a specific profiles set. Contrary to IESDS, IETDS may reduce the set of Nash equilibria (whilst never expanding it and never eliminating strict Nash equilibria) without the problem of inconsistencies and order dependence faced by IEWDS and IESDS.
Behavior Working Group
Du 27/05/2021 de 11:00 à 12:00
ZAPPALà Guglielmo (PSE)
Drought exposure and accuracy: Motivated reasoning in climate change beliefs
Despite scientific consensus, there is no unanimity among citizens in the beliefs about climate change. Understanding how people form beliefs about climate change and what drives their interpretation of climatic events is essential, especially in developing countries and among agricultural communities, who may most suffer from climate change consequences. Using survey data from rural households in Bangladesh matched with objective drought data, this paper studies how long-term average drought exposure and short-term deviations shape belief formation and accuracy in recollecting past drought events. In order to further investigate how agents interpret these past drought events, I use an instrumental variable approach to test and validate that individuals are subject to confirmation bias. The results show that the probability of overestimating the number of past drought events and the intensity with which individuals overestimate are significantly biased in the direction of their prior beliefs. The findings highlight the need of models that account for behavioral factors such as confirmation bias and motivated reasoning to study climate change preference formation, and its implications for effective communication.