Calendrier du 28 novembre 2022
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 28/11/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
FRICK Mira (Yale)
*"Welfare Comparisons for Biased Learning" (with Ryota Iijima and Yuhta Ishii)
We study robust welfare comparisons of learning biases, i.e., deviations from
correct Bayesian updating. Given a true signal distribution, we deem one bias
more harmful than another if it yields lower objective expected payoffs in all decision
problems. We characterize this ranking in static (one signal) and dynamic
(many signals) settings. While the static characterization compares posteriors
signal-by-signal, the dynamic characterization employs an “efficiency index”
quantifying the speed of belief convergence. Our results yield welfare-founded
quantifications of the severity of well-documented biases. Moreover, the static
and dynamic rankings can disagree, and “smaller” biases can be worse in dynamic
settings.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 28/11/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
SCHNEIDER Sarah (Exeter)
*Atmospheric Pollution and Child Morbidity from Respiratory Diseases: Evidence from the London Foundling Hospital 1897-1914
This paper tests the influence of short-run, exogenous spikes in atmospheric pollution on disease outcomes for children. I use Hanlon (2022)’s data on fog events in London to proxy short-run spikes in pollution since fogs trapped existing pollution close to the ground. The morbidity data, covering both the incidence (new
cases) of disease, sickness duration (time in the infirmary) and the appearance of complications, is reconstructed from rich, individual-level sickness information recorded by an orphanage in London, the Foundling Hospital, from 1897 to 1914. The infirmary records include over 6,000 sickness events from 235 different diseases for c. 1,000 children. I find evidence that pollution caused greater spread and also increased sickness duration for a wide range of respiratory diseases (catarrh, tonsillitis, influenza and bronchitis). Implications for the health transition are explored.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 28/11/2022