Calendrier du mois de janvier 2022
Econometrics Seminar
Du 31/01/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
HIRSHBERG David (Emory)
The Basis for Inference based on Synthetic Control Methods
Synthetic Control methods are becoming popular far beyond the context of comparative case studies in which they first proposed. It is no longer the rule that they are used only when we have one (or few) treated units. But despite recent attention, there is little consensus on when they work and how to do inference based on them. That there is no one way to think about panel data makes this difficult. In some interpretations, we are solving what is essentially a matrix completion problem with noise that is completely unrelated to selection of treatment; in others, we are inverse propensity weighting to adjust for the selection of treatment based on past outcomes, noise and all.
In this talk, I will discuss some results characterizing synthetic control estimation based on these two interpretations, drawing on the literature on synthetic control estimators for panel data as well as that on covariate balancing or calibrated inverse propensity weighting estimators for cross-sectional data. And I will highlight some issues that become apparent when we try to mix these perspectives, approaching inference based on selection of treatment from a perspective in which behaviors specific to individual units, i.e. fixed effects— interactive or otherwise, are needed to explain the heterogeneity of the data.
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 31/01/2022 de 13:00 à 14:00
https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/97695651406?pwd=YldRUXh3eHA0Zk1XODJVaHdlSHdxUT09
ASCIONE Fabio (Paris 1 )
A lending hand from abroad? Corporate saving and imported intermediate inputs in three European countries
Rising corporate saving has figured prominently in the debate on economic inequality and the emergence of global imbalances, even though little is known on the detrimental drivers of this dramatic trend. This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of corporate saving by highlighting the role of intermediate input importing from non-financial industries in Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands over the period 2000-2014. Combining comprehensive firm-level data from the Orbis Bureau Van Dijk database with industry information on imported intermediate inputs from the World Input-Output Database, I find robust evidence that expanded access to cheaper intermediates has significantly contributed to the rise in corporate saving. The effects are particularly strong for imports from Eastern Europe and somewhat weaker for imports from China. These findings imply that the increasing fragmentation of production of the non-financial sector has contributed considerably to corporate sector surpluses, and hence to macroeconomic imbalances and economic inequality while qualifying Eastern Europe as special in that it accounts for the bulk of these surpluses in major current account surplus countries.
Texte intégral
Economic History Seminar
Du 26/01/2022 de 13:00 à 18:00
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan
Du 25/01/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
GRAS Clément (PSE)
TBA
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 25/01/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1.09 Jourdan
ZABROCKI Leo (PSE)
Unbiased but Inflated Causal Effects
écrit avec Vincent Bagilet (Columbia University)
In this paper, we bridge two existing ideas. On the one hand, to avoid confounders, most identification strategies throw out variation and can inherently lead to a reduction in statistical power. On the other hand, when power is low, published estimates may overestimate true effects sizes. Using fake data simulations, we show that in a wide range of situations, neat causal identification strategies may produce inflated effects. As a consequence, there could be a trade off between avoiding confounders and overestimating true effect sizes due to low power issues. We discuss potential avenues to address this underrated issue.
EPCI (Economie politique du changement institutionnel) Seminar
Du 21/01/2022 de 11:00 à 12:30
Salle du 6ème, Maison des Sciences Économiques, 112 Bd de l'Hôpital, 75013 Paris
REYNAUD Bénedicte (CNRS, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, IRISSO)
Dynamique de l'emploi et restructuration des postes : une étude empirique sur des données d'entreprises françaises (2002-2016)
écrit avec with Thibault Darcillon (Université Paris 8 Vincennes-St Denis, LED) et Paul Lagneau-Ymonet (CNRS, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, IRISSO)
La présente recherche part du constat qu’il n’existe pas de travaux académiques pour la période récente (2002-2018) sur les causes des réductions de postes en France. En effet, ce sujet n’intéresse pas vraiment les économistes, soit qu’ils mettent l’accent sur l’analyse macro-économiques des flux d’emploi, soit qu’ils s’en tiennent aux conséquences de telles réductions sur les carrières salariales, ou sur les performances économiques et financières des entreprises.
Nous avons alors construit un entrepôt de données qui comporte des séries relatives à la morphologie de la main-d’œuvre (DADS salariés, postes, entreprises, établissements, DADS salariés au 1/12), aux mouvements de main-d’œuvre (MMO/DSN), à la comptabilité des entreprises (BIC-RN, BIC-IS), et enfin à la structure de l’actionnariat (LIFI).
Le champ d’investigation de cette recherche comprend toutes les entreprises qui ont compté au moins 50 postes, au moins un jour de la période 2002-2018.
Pour identifier les déterminants des réductions de postes dans ces entreprises, nous procédons en trois étapes. Il s’agit d’abord d’identifier la première variable d’intérêt. Pour cela, nous avons mis au point un algorithme qui détecte les entreprises qui sont en situation de devoir effectuer un Plan de Sauvegarde pour l’Emploi (PSE). Ensuite, un modèle logit nous permet d’estimer les déterminants pour une entreprise donnée d’être en situation de devoir présenter un PSE. Enfin, une régression quantile nous permet d’apprécier la stabilité des effets de ces déterminants sur l’évolution du nombre de postes.
Behavior Working Group
Du 21/01/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
MSE (114)
SCARELLI Thiago (PSE)
Financial Concerns and Labor Income Discounting
Du 21/01/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
MSE (114)
SCARELLI Thiago (PSE)
Design/protocol ideas
Economic History Seminar
Du 19/01/2022 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan
ARNOUX Mathieu (EHESS/CRH)
Croissance économique, crédit et rentes en grains (Normandie, XIIIe-XIVe siècle)
Le long mouvement de croissance démographique, agraire et économique qui transforma l’Europe entre Xe et XIVe siècle pose de multiples question à l’historien de l’économie. L’une d’entre elles porte sur la rareté de la monnaie métallique et sur l’origine et la nature des capitaux qui permirent l’investissement dans la transformation des campagnes et dans la croissance des villes. Les sources normandes des XIIIe et XIVe siècle montrent que ce problème trouva, en partie, sa solution par un usage monétaire des récoltes, qui permit la mise en place au XIIIe siècle d’un marché du crédit par échanges de rentes payée en grain, froment et orge essentiellement. L’intervention illustrera le fonctionnement de ces marchés, assis sur les marchés céréaliers locaux et l’importance des rentes en céréales pour le financement des institutions d’assistances, essentielles dans ces société.
Arnoux, M. (2021). Credit and investment between town and countryside: The market in grain annuities in Normandy (thirteenth-fourteenth centuries). Continuity and Change, 36(2), 149-176. doi:10.1017/S0268416021000126
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 18/01/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Jourdan R1.09
EYQUEM Aurélien (Université Lumière Lyon 2)
Explaining Income and Wealth Inequality over the Long Run: The Case of France
écrit avec Stéphane Auray, Bertrand Garbinti, Jonathan Goupille
We incorporate microeconomic evidence for France using distributional accounts into a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous workers, endogenous labor supply, entrepreneurs, three assets (deposits, housing and capital), heterogeneous discount factors and wealth in the utility. Calibrated using 1984 data, the initial stationary distribution matches the observed levels of income and wealth inequalities up to the top 1%, as well as the aggregate wealth-income ratio. It also fits the observed composition of wealth along the distribution, which makes returns on wealth increase with wealth levels, as in the data. From 1985 to 2018, we feed the model with exogenous changes in taxes and transfers, firms' markups, aggregate productivity, capital depreciation and equity and housing capital gains. The model replicates the observed dynamics of income and wealth inequalities as well as the dynamics of most macroeconomic aggregates. Counterfactual experiments suggest that markups and the tax system are the main interacting drivers of rising income and wealth inequalities over the last 40 years in France.
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 17/01/2022 de 13:00 à 14:00
https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/92845411750?pwd=Nko5aFBoLzc1ZnFEOWpaZEhmUFhsZz09
RAGAB Dina (University of Paris 1, Cairo University)
Does Past Informality Status Affect the Adoption of Foreign Technology in the Emerging Economies?
écrit avec Boris Najman (UPEC)
Informality has become a prevailing phenomenon in emerging economies. Using the World Bank Enterprise Survey for a large cross-section of emerging economies between 2006 and 2020, we examine the effect of informality costs on the adoption of foreign technology. The hypothesis tested is that the formal firms which started their operations unofficially at some point in the past are less likely to adopt foreign technology even after formalization. Accounting for endogeneity, results show that past informality status has a persistent and negative effect on the adoption of foreign technology. We also discuss the moderating role of other variables on this relationship. Results show that the exporting activities, the high quality of institutions, and the investment in human capital weaken the negative impact of the informal creation of a formal firm on the adoption of foreign technology. These findings are robust to a range of firm and country characteristics as well as checks for endogeneity concerns.
Economic History Seminar
Du 12/01/2022 de 16:00 à 17:30
On line
ARCHIBONG Belinda (Barnard College, Columbia University)
Prison Labor: The Price of Prisons and the Lasting Effects of Incarceration
écrit avec Nonso Obikili (Center For Global Development)
Institutions of justice, like prisons, can be used to serve economic and other extrajudicial interests, with lasting deleterious effects. We study the effects on incarceration when prisoners are used primarily as a source of labor using evidence from British colonial Nigeria. We digitized sixty-five years of archival records on prisons from 1920 to 1995 and provide new estimates on the value of prison labor and the effects of labor demand shocks on incarceration. We find that prison labor was economically valuable to the colonial regime, making up a significant share of colonial public works expenditure. Positive economic shocks increased incarceration rates over the colonial period. This result is reversed in the postcolonial period, where prison labor is not a notable feature of state public finance. We document a significant reduction in contemporary trust in legal institutions, like police, in areas with high historic exposure to colonial imprisonment. The resulting reduction in trust is specific to legal institutions today.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 11/01/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
https://zoom.us/j/94740575953
MAYAUX Damien (PSE)
How much should you pay for organic eggs ? Boycotts and retail market power
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 11/01/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2.01 Jourdan
FISHER-POST Matthew (PSE)
Globalization and Factor Income Taxation
écrit avec Pierre Bachas (World Bank), Anders Jensen (HKS), Gabriel Zucman (UC Berkeley)
How has globalization affected the relative taxation of labor and capital? We address this question by constructing and analyzing a database of effective macroeconomic tax rates covering 150 countries since 1965, obtained by combining national accounts data with government revenue statistics. We obtain 5 main findings. 1) The average effective labor and capital tax rates have converged globally, due to a 10 points increase in labor taxation and 5 points decline in capital taxation since the 1960s. 2) The decline in capital taxation is concentrated in high-income countries and driven by the collapse of corporate profits taxation. 3) By contrast, capital taxation has increased in developing countries since the 1990s, especially in large economies. 4) Using a variety of research designs, we find that the rise in effective capital tax rates in developing countries follows the rise of trade openness, while trade has a negative effect on capital taxation in developed countries. In both groups of countries, trade leads to an increase in effective labor taxation. 5) Countries with higher trade have a larger share of output produced in the corporate sector (where income is easier to observe and therefore to tax) and less self-employment. Globalization thus appears to have had asymmetric effects on tax structures, contributing to the decline in tax progressivity in rich countries but also to the growth of tax capacity in developing countries.
Economic History Seminar
Du 05/01/2022 de 12:00 à 13:30
On line
LACROIX Jean (Université Paris-Saclay)
Nationalism losing its Religion: Evidence from the Papal condemnation of the Action Française
écrit avec ***
How do anti-democratic organizations react to elites' opposition? This paper assesses the influence of Pope Pius XI on the development of the Action Française in interwar France to tackle this question. In 1926, the Pope condemned the Action Française (AF). As a consequence, Catholics had to choose between a potential involvement in the Action Française and accessing Catholic sacraments. We use various difference-in-differences and IV estimates to assess how the Action Française reacted to the condemnation. First, in the immediate aftermath of the condemnation, the Action Française re-organized : the number of its branches increased. Second, the Papal condemnation shaped the geography of this reaction: relatively less branches were created in highly-religious areas whereas relatively more branches were created in places were the episcopate sanctioned members of the Action Française the most. Third, additional results on voting, political violence and workers' movements suggest that the Action Française radicalized to cope with its loss of influence among its historical supporters.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 04/01/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
Campus Jourdan, R1-13
MAYAUX Damien (PSE) How much should you pay for organic eggs ? Boycotts and retail market power;
La séance est annulée
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 04/01/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2.01 Jourdan
MADINIER Etienne (PSE)
Explaining the heterogenous effect of Internet on elections: evidence from France
The paper estimates the effect of Internet availability at the municipality level on the electoral performance of the candidates to the French presidential elections. I separate the effect of mobile and stationary internet (respectively through 3G and ADSL). Applying the generalized random forest (Athey et al. 2019) algorithm to estimate the treatment effect allows to describe the effect both as a function of the candidates political platforms and the municipality's characteristics.