Calendrier du mois de janvier 2023
Job Market Seminar
Du 31/01/2023 de 13:00 à 14:15
R2-01
D ADAMO Riccardo (University College London)
Orthogonal Policy Learning Under Ambiguity
This paper studies the problem of estimating individualized treatment rules when treatment effects are partially identified, as it is often the case with observational data. By
drawing connections between the treatment assignment problem and classical decision theory, we characterize several notions of optimal treatment policies in the presence of partial
identification. The proposed framework allows to incorporate user-defined constraints on
the policies, such as restrictions for transparency or interpretability, while also ensuring
computational feasibility. We show that partial identification leads to a novel statistical
learning problem with risk directionally – but not fully – differentiable with respect to an
infinite-dimensional nuisance component. We propose an estimation procedure that ensures
Neyman-orthogonality with respect to the nuisance component and provide statistical guarantees that depend on the amount of concentration around the points of non-differentiability
in the data-generating process. The proposed method is illustrated using data from the Job
Partnership Training Act study.
Texte intégral
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 31/01/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21
GüNTHER Laurenz (University of Bonn)
Political Representation Gaps in Europe
Do parliaments in representative democracies represent the policy attitudes of their voters? I examine this question using both data on the policy attitudes of 2,074 parliamentarians and 31,461 citizens who are representative of 27 European countries and a novel estimation framework that I validate with referendum data. I find large and systematic “representation gaps.” Parliaments are more progressive on cultural issues than voters in nearly all countries. On economic issues, they tend to be more market-oriented than voters, but this result varies by country. These results are at odds with the standard assumption of vote-share maximizing politicians. I theoretically and empirically explain the existence of representation gaps through a perceived competence advantage of some politicians that enables them to implement their preferred policies. Representation gaps help explain distrust in democracy and the existence of populist parties, which fill representation gaps. These findings suggest that reversing the rise of populism and increasing trust in democratic institutions requires established parties to close representation gaps. Finally, it informs policymakers on how to reposition themselves to do so.
Paris Migration Economics Seminar
Du 30/01/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan
MENDOLA Mariapia (Université de Milan-Bicocca)
The Political Backlash to Refugee Settlement: Cultural and Economic Drivers
écrit avec with Francesco Campo, Sara Giunti and Giulia Tura
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 27/01/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
TESCHKE Eric ()
Policy targeting under dynamic poverty
écrit avec Jack Willis (Columbia University)
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 27/01/2023 de 12:00 à 13:00
Salle R1.13
BOAS Hjalte (University of Copenhagen and the Danish Ministry of Taxation)
Taxing Wealth in a Globalized World: The Compliance Effect of Automatic Information Exchange
écrit avec with Niels Johannesen, Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Lauge Larsen, and Gabriel Zucman
Leaks from offshore financial institutions have revealed significant wealth of the rich hidden away from tax authorities worldwide. To address this adverse effect of globalization, more than 100 countries recently adopted a new policy instrument that provides automatic information exchange on financial accounts. Under the new Common Reporting Standard (CRS), banks are required to identify owners of financial accounts and provide information about their assets and capital income to their home countries. Despite its immediate policy relevance, little is known about the effectiveness of such policies to improve tax compliance and uncover hidden wealth. Using several data sources inside the Danish tax authorities and customized tax audits, we study the three ways in which the new policy of automatic information exchange can improve tax compliance. Tax evaders may repatriate their undeclared offshore wealth before the onset of automatic information exchange, they may start to self-report this wealth and its return to the tax authorities, or the tax authorities may detect their evasion in audits that use the new information reports. We document compliance effects of taxpayers along all margins.
Job Market Seminar
Du 26/01/2023 de 12:00 à 13:15
R2-21
OSPITAL Augusto (UCLA)
Urban Policy and Spatial Exposure to Environmental Risk
In the past two decades, about half of the new homes in the United States were built
in environmentally risky areas. Why is new residential development being exposed to such
risk? I posit that land-use regulations restricting development in safer areas contribute to this
pattern. I study this question in the context of exposure to wildfire risk in the metropolitan
area of San Diego, California, where areas unexposed to risk are highly regulated and built
out. I estimate a quantitative urban model using detailed spatial data on zoning, density
limits, lot size restrictions, wildfire risk, and insurance. In the model, the regulations benefit
landowners and reallocate the population to unregulated at-risk areas. These effects depend on
estimated disamenities from wildfire risk, insurance access, and the spatial correlations between
regulations, wildfire risk, and location amenities. I find that land-use regulations raise citylevel rents by an average 28% and explain 7% of the residents living in fire-prone areas. The
estimated present-discounted cost of wildfire risk is $14,149 per person, with existing regulations
accounting for 10% of that cost. Over the next 40 years, as wildfire risk intensifies, the population
grows, and the current land restrictions become more binding, the number of exposed residents
will grow by 12%. The results show that institutions that restrain relocating out of harm’s way,
such as land-use regulations, can limit adaptation to climate change.
Histoire des entreprises et de la finance
Du 25/01/2023 de 16:00 à 17:30
Salle R1.14, Campus Jourdan
VIALLET - THEVENIN Scott ()
Le réseau des grandes entreprises coloniales françaises de 1885 à 1939
Economic History Seminar
Du 25/01/2023 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan
VIALLET - THEVENIN Scott ()
l'émergence d'un espace élitaire impérial et ses conséquences sur l'empire colonial français ; 1885 - 1939
Cette présentation prend pour objet l’espace impérial, défini par les circulations de groupes élitaires au sein de l’empire colonial français. Les parcours des élites impériales participent de la structuration de l’Empire. Cette recherche s'attache à décrire les processus qui participent de l’émergence de cet espace, le structurent et lui confèrent une certaine spécificité. Il s'appuie sur une analyse des carrières et origines sociales des principaux groupes dirigeants de l'empire colonial français (gouverneurs coloniaux, inspecteurs des colonies, généraux, hommes d’affaires et parlementaires), à partir d'une base de données historique ad hoc de 1300 individus. Nous montrons que l’espace impérial apparaît par déformation de l’espace élitaire métropolitain, et couplage progressif de groupes professionnels avec des espaces géographiques. Autrement dit, l’espace impérial élitaire émerge dans un double mouvement, synchronique, de dissociation des élites métropolitaines et d’interconnexions entre groupes élitaires impériaux ainsi que de mise en relation entre les groupes élitaires impériaux et les territoires colonisés. Leur professionnalisation et partant, l’émergence de l’espace impérial sont alimentés – en sus de logiques organisationnelles - par les opportunités de carrières que les individus trouvent dans les colonies et leur reconversion difficile dans l’espace métropolitain.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 24/01/2023 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13
HARRIS Gemma (PSE)
Efficiency and distributional costs of rising public debt
Job Market Seminar
Du 24/01/2023 de 13:00 à 14:15
R2-01
TEBBE Sebastian (Stockholm University)
Peer Effects in (Hybrid) Electric Vehicle Adoption: Evidence from the Swedish Vehicle Market
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 24/01/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21
OLIVEIRA Florentine (PSE)
The Minimum Wage and the Wage Distribution in Portugal
Raising the minimum wage can reshape the wage distribution. In Portugal, a sustained rise in the minimum wage over 13 years coincided with a decline in inequality that was equivalent to the US increase in inequality of the 1980s and 90s. Using a semiparametric approach, counterfactual decomposition methods, and an extremely rich administrative dataset of all employees in the country, this paper presents significant visual and quantitative evidence of how changes in the minimum wage shaped the wage distribution over the last three decades. The
remarkable minimum wage rise of 2006-19 triggered a compression of the lower half of the wage distribution that was equivalent to the full decline in wage inequality. The rise explained 40% of average wage growth. Spillover effects generated wage gains up to the 54th percentile, explaining more than half of this inequality-reducing effect. Like in many European countries, most workers benefit from collectively bargained wage floors above the national minimum. Wage floors did not react to the rising minimum wage but firms proactively raised wages higher up in the distribution in order to maintain job title premiums, suggesting that spillovers were not contingent on a heavily institutionalised labour market.
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 23/01/2023 de 13:00 à 14:00
Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle 116
MOREAU-KASTLER Ninon (ENS Paris-Saclay)
Due Diligence and Legal Havens: Conflict Minerals Exports in Africa’s Great Lake Region
This paper studies how « conflict minerals » trade flows react to due diligence policies imposing sourcing guidelines for importers, in the presence of legal havens. Dodd-Frank Act Conflict Mineral Rule (2010) imposed sourcing disclosure and name and shame for U.S. importers using 3T (tantalum, tin and tungsten) from conflict areas in Democratic Republic of the Congo and adjoining countries. Comparing targeted bilateral trade flows to non-targeted products exporters within the structural gravity framework, I find that this policy decreased targeted countries 3T exports value, creating a new trade barrier for targeted countries. However, 3T flows are diverted to legal havens. Legal havens are countries adopting laws allowing economic agents to « hide illicit activity and to exempt themselves from legal obligations linked to their economic activities ». After the Dodd-Frank Act, D.R.C. and neighboring countries export share of 3T to legal havens increases. 3T trade flows also increase from legal havens to the United States after 2010, which could point to regulation avoidance.
Job Market Seminar
Du 23/01/2023 de 12:00 à 13:15
R2-21
LIEBER Jonas (University of Chicago)
Estimating Concentration Parameters for Bandit Algorithms
Bandit models are widely used to capture learning in contexts where agents repeatedly choose
actions with uncertain rewards. Examples include firms maximizing profits by experimenting
with prices or advertisement, randomized control trials maximizing outcomes by evaluating
alternative treatments, and consumers maximizing utility by trying experience goods. A popular bandit algorithm is the upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithm. The UCB algorithm
requires sub-Gaussian concentration parameters as inputs. In practice, these parameters are
unknown so that the UCB algorithm is not fully data-driven. I propose a method to estimate
these parameters and use the estimated parameters to conduct inference with Hoeffding’s
inequality. I show that asymptotic inference with estimated parameters is valid under mild
and optimal under stronger conditions. In finite samples, I establish validity of inference under an anti-concentration condition. Equipped with the proposed estimator for sub-Gaussian
concentration parameters, I adapt the UCB algorithm to settings where these parameters
are unknown. In an empirical application, I study price experimentation after the liberalization of the spirits market in Washington State in 2012 and find that the adapted UCB
algorithm leads to considerably higher profits. My theoretical results can also be applied to
non-standard inference problems that arise in partial identification and machine learning.
Job Market Seminar
Du 20/01/2023 de 13:00 à 14:15
R2-01
DAHIS Ricardo (PUC-Rio)
Development via Administrative Redistricting
écrit avec Christiane Szerman
We study how administrative redistricting promotes local development. Exploiting a
large episode of voluntary municipality splits in Brazil and a rich panel of administrative and spatial data, we compare paths of development between areas that split
and those that did not. We find that splitting had broadly positive effects, with any
potential loss of scale from smaller governments being at least partially compensated
by extra federal transfers new municipalities received. We find that splitting led to an
expansion of the public sector, improvements in public service delivery, and increases
in economic activity in new municipalities. We show that autonomy and reductions
to administrative distance help explain results beyond simply gains in revenue. Our
findings illustrate that decentralization in form of subsidized voluntary administrative redistricting can improve public service delivery in disadvantaged areas.
EPCI (Economie politique du changement institutionnel) Seminar
Du 20/01/2023 de 11:00 à 12:30
salle du 6e, MSE, 112 Bd de l'Hôpital, 75013 Paris
DUBOIS Vincent (U.Strasbourg, Sciences Po, SAGE)
Contrôler les assistés. Genèses et usages d’un mot d’ordre
Contrôler les assistés s’est imposé à partir des années 1990 en France comme un mot d’ordre politique, bureaucratique et moral. Jamais les bénéficiaires d’aides sociales, et parmi eux les plus précaires, n’avaient été aussi rigoureusement surveillés, ni leurs illégalismes ou leurs erreurs si sévèrement sanctionnés. Ce renforcement du contrôle n’est cependant pas réductible à des préoccupations financières. Ainsi, moins sévèrement réprimés, l’évasion fiscale ou les défauts de paiement des cotisations sociales par les employeurs atteignent des montants sans commune mesure avec ceux qui concernent les erreurs ou abus des bénéficiaires d’aides sociales, traqués sans relâche.
Un mécanisme implacable à plusieurs facettes sous-tend cette spirale rigoriste à l’égard des assistés?: des leaders politiques qui pourfendent la fraude sociale et qui parviennent à stigmatiser leurs contradicteurs comme naïfs ou complices?; des administrations qui surenchérissent dans des technologies de contrôle toujours plus performantes?; une division du travail bureaucratique qui déréalise et déshumanise le traitement des cas?; le fonctionnement interne de commissions où la clémence est toujours plus difficile à défendre que la sévérité?; le point d’honneur professionnel du contrôleur de la caisse locale qui traque la moindre erreur au nom de l’exactitude des dossiers.
Au nom de la responsabilisation individuelle, de la lutte contre l’abus, de la maîtrise des dépenses, un service public fondamental qui vise à garantir des conditions de vie dignes à tous les citoyens contribue désormais à un gouvernement néopaternaliste des conduites qui stigmatise et précarise les plus faibles.
Economic History Seminar
Du 18/01/2023 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1.09, Campus Jourdan
JUIF Dacil (Université Carlos III Madrid)
The impact of copper mining activities on education in Zambia from a long-term perspective (1920 to 2000)
écrit avec with Laura Maravall-Buckwalter
The cross-country “resource curse” literature links dependence on minerals to worsening socio-economic outcomes, including education. We assess the local impact of large-scale mining activities on schooling in Zambia, a copper-dependent economy, since 1920. We use census data from IPUMS International and study how education differs across regions during the period 1920-2000. Our preliminary results show that proximity to mines raises the average years of schooling by up to around 30 percent in the 1940s. Contrary to what previous African economic history literature has claimed, early mission location has no effect on the comparative development of education within Zambia. The mechanisms explored include income and wealth, urbanization, comparatively skill-intensive job opportunities, and a better supply of schooling by state and mine companies.
Job Market Seminar
Du 18/01/2023 de 12:00 à 13:15
R2-21
BENMIR Ghassane (London School of Economics, PSL)
The Distributional Costs of Net-Zero: A Heterogeneous Agent Perspective
écrit avec Josselin Roman
This paper investigates the distributional impacts of implementing the net-zero
emissions target in the U.S. for the 2050 horizon. We model a heterogeneous household
economy and show that 2050 net-zero policy is welfare enhancing in the long run, but
induces short/medium-run distributional costs. We quantify this trade-off by a 0.54%
consumption equivalent welfare gain (compared to the laissez-faire) in the long run and
a 6-10 percent increase of financially constrained households by 2050. We then show
how distributing revenue from the carbon policy could partially offset consumption
losses and smooth the net-zero transition. We also extend our analysis to the cases
of: i) sticky prices, showing how net-zero emissions induces inflationary pressure over
the long run, which could represent a challenge for monetary policy conduction in a
world with high inflation, and ii) abatement learning, showing how green innovation
decreases carbon prices and boosts consumption over the transition.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 17/01/2023 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13
PLANTEROSE Bluebery (PSE)
Fighting Climate Change: International Attitudes Toward Climate Policies
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 17/01/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan
RASTER Tom ()
Breaking the ice: The persistent effect of pioneers on trade relationships
There is substantially less trade than is theoretically predicted, and many countries do not trade at all with each other. Pioneers - first movers to new markets - are hypothesized to play an important role in establishing lasting trade relationships and a country 'self-discovering' its comparative advantage. This paper offers a first causal test of the role of pioneers, drawing on millions of captain voyages between the Baltic and North Sea between 1500 and 1855. For identification, I rely on drastic year-to-year variation in sea ice, which exogenously re-routes captains to towns they or their peers had not previously visited. I find that once (randomly) exposed to a new port, captains and their townspeople are very likely to return to this town and that trade flows and the export mix are lastingly altered. These findings highlight the importance of pioneers and policies, such as export promotion, that foster them.
Du 13/01/2023 de 12:00 à 13:00
Salle R1.13
MANDEL Antoine (Paris 1)
The network structure of global tax evasion evidence from the Panama papers
écrit avec Fernando Garcia Alvarado
This paper builds on recent insights from network theory and on the rich dataset made available by the Panama Papers in order to investigate the micro-economic dynamics of tax-evasion. We model offshore financial entities documented in the Panama Papers as links between jurisdictions in the global network of tax evasion. A quantitative analysis shows that the resulting network, far from being a random collection of bilateral links, has key features of complex networks such as a core-periphery structure and a fat-tail degree distribution. We argue that these structural features imply that policy must adopt a systemic perspective to mitigate tax evasion. We offer three sets of insights from this perspective. First, we identify through centrality measures tax havens that ought to be priority policy targets. Second, we show that efficient tax treaties must contain exchange information clauses and link tax-havens to non-haven jurisdictions. Third, we show that the optimal deterrence strategies for a social-planner facing a strategic tax-evader in a Stackelberg competition can be characterized using the notion of Bonacich centrality.
Du 13/01/2023 de 12:00 à 13:00
Salle R1.13
MANDEL Antoine (Paris 1)
The network structure of global tax evasion evidence from the Panama papers
écrit avec Fernando Garcia Alvarado
This paper builds on recent insights from network theory and on the rich dataset made available by the Panama Papers in order to investigate the micro-economic dynamics of tax-evasion. We model offshore financial entities documented in the Panama Papers as links between jurisdictions in the global network of tax evasion. A quantitative analysis shows that the resulting network, far from being a random collection of bilateral links, has key features of complex networks such as a core-periphery structure and a fat-tail degree distribution. We argue that these structural features imply that policy must adopt a systemic perspective to mitigate tax evasion. We offer three sets of insights from this perspective. First, we identify through centrality measures tax havens that ought to be priority policy targets. Second, we show that efficient tax treaties must contain exchange information clauses and link tax-havens to non-haven jurisdictions. Third, we show that the optimal deterrence strategies for a social-planner facing a strategic tax-evader in a Stackelberg competition can be characterized using the notion of Bonacich centrality.
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 13/01/2023 de 12:00 à 13:00
Salle R1.13
MANDEL Antoine (Paris 1)
The network structure of global tax evasion evidence from the Panama papers
écrit avec with Fernando Garcia Alvarado
This paper builds on recent insights from network theory and on the rich dataset made available by the Panama Papers in order to investigate the micro-economic dynamics of tax-evasion. We model offshore financial entities documented in the Panama Papers as links between jurisdictions in the global network of tax evasion. A quantitative analysis shows that the resulting network, far from being a random collection of bilateral links, has key features of complex networks such as a core-periphery structure and a fat-tail degree distribution. We argue that these structural features imply that policy must adopt a systemic perspective to mitigate tax evasion. We offer three sets of insights from this perspective. First, we identify through centrality measures tax havens that ought to be priority policy targets. Second, we show that efficient tax treaties must contain exchange information clauses and link tax-havens to non-haven jurisdictions. Third, we show that the optimal deterrence strategies for a social-planner facing a strategic tax-evader in a Stackelberg competition can be characterized using the notion of Bonacich centrality.
Job Market Seminar
Du 13/01/2023 de 12:00 à 13:15
R2-21
KUANG Yizhou (Cornell University)
Robust Bayesian Estimation and Inference for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models
This paper introduces a new algorithm to conduct robust Bayesian estimation and inference in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The algorithm combines standard
Bayesian methods with an equivalence characterization of model solutions. This algorithm
allows researchers to perform the following analysis: First, find the complete range of
posterior means of both the deep parameters and any parameters of interest robust to the
choice of priors in a sense I make precise. Second, derive the robust Bayesian credible
region for the model parameters. I prove the validity of this algorithm and apply this
method to the models in Cochrane (2011) and An and Schorfheide (2007) to achieve robust
estimations for structural parameters and impulse responses. In addition, I conduct a
sensitivity analysis of optimal monetary policy rules with respect to the choice of priors
and provide bounds to the optimal Taylor rule parameters.
Job Market Seminar
Du 12/01/2023 de 12:00 à 13:15
R2-21
DEOPA Neha (Aix-Marseille School Of Economics)
Sacred Ecology: The Environmental Impact of African Traditional Religions
Do religions codify ecological principles? This paper explores theoretically and empirically the
role religious beliefs play in shaping environmental interactions. I study African Traditional
Religions (ATR) which place forests within a sacred sphere. I build a model of non-market
interactions of the mean-field type where the actions of agents with heterogeneous religious
beliefs continuously affect the spatial density of forest cover. The equilibrium extraction policy
shows how individual beliefs and their distribution among the population can be a key driver
of forest conservation. The model also characterizes the role of resource scarcity in both individual and population extraction decisions. I test the model predictions empirically relying
on the unique case of Benin, where ATR adherence is freely reported. Using an instrumental
variable strategy that exploits the variation in proximity to the Benin-Nigerian border, I find
that a 1 standard deviation increase in ATR adherence has a 0.4 standard deviation positive
impact on forest cover change. I study the impact of historically belonging to the ancient
Kingdom of Dahomey, birthplace of the Vodun religion. Using the original boundaries as a
spatial discontinuity, I find positive evidence of Dahomey affiliation on contemporary forest
change. Lastly, I compare observed forest cover to counterfactual outcomes by simulating the
absence of ATR beliefs across the population.
Job Market Seminar
Du 11/01/2023 de 12:30 à 13:45
R2-21
BEYHUM Jad (ENSAI)
Instrumental variable quantile regression under random right censoring
écrit avec Lorenzo Tedesco
This paper studies a semiparametric quantile regression model
with endogenous variables and random right censoring. The endogeneity issue is solved using instrumental variables. It is assumed that the
structural quantile of the logarithm of the outcome variable is linear
in the covariates and censoring is independent. The regressors and
instruments can be either continuous or discrete. The specification
generates a continuum of equations of which the quantile regression
coefficients are a solution. Identification is obtained when this system
of equations has a unique solution. Our estimation procedure solves
an empirical analogue of the system of equations. We derive conditions under which the estimator is asymptotically normal and prove
the validity of a bootstrap procedure for inference. The finite sample
performance of the approach is evaluated through numerical simulations. The method is illustrated by an application to the national Job
Training Partnership Act study
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 10/01/2023 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13
HATEM Nicolas (PSE)
Dynamic (Mis)allocation of Investments in Solar Energy
Special Seminar
Du 10/01/2023 de 14:00 à 15:00
R2-01
CHALLE Edouard (Pse & Cnrs)
TBA
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 10/01/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21
STOSTAD Morten ()
The Consequences of Inequality: Beliefs and Redistributive Preferences
écrit avec Max Lobeck
What are the societal consequences of economic inequality, and how do concerns for these consequences affect individuals' redistributive preferences? This paper examines beliefs about how economic inequality changes society, and establishes a causal link between such inequality externality beliefs and redistributive preferences. Using two representative surveys of a combined 6,731 U.S. citizens, we show that a majority of respondents believe that inequality leads to negative societal outcomes through channels such as increased crime, deteriorating democratic institutions, and diminished economic growth. We establish a causal link from individuals' inequality externality beliefs to their redistributive preferences by using exogenously provided video information treatments. With this and other methods we estimate that inequality externality beliefs are about two-thirds as impactful for individuals' redistributive preferences as broad economic fairness views. Although Democrats are more likely to believe in the negative consequences of inequality than Republicans, beliefs are surprisingly similar across political parties and less polarized than comparable fairness views. Inequality externality-based arguments cause less anger among respondents than fairness-based arguments, however, indicating structural differences in the two types of arguments.
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 09/01/2023 de 13:00 à 14:00
Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle 116
DENAGISCARDE Olivier (CES/BNP Paribas Real Estate)
Working From Home and Business Districts: Evidence From the Paris Metropolitan Area
In this preliminary work, I provide a first empirical analysis of the intracity effect of Working From Home (WFH) on office property markets at the municipality level in the Paris metropolitan area, by taking advantage of the Covid-19 crisis as a natural experiment. In addition, I similarly explore the impact on local consumer services as another dimension of the consequences of the rise of WFH.
Job Market Seminar
Du 09/01/2023 de 12:00 à 13:15
R2-01
MUGNIER Martin (CREST, ENSAE, Institut Polytechnique de Paris)
Unobserved Clusters of Time-Varying Heterogeneity in Nonlinear Panel Data Models
In studies based on longitudinal data, researchers often assume time-invariant unobserved
heterogeneity or linear-in-parameters conditional expectations. Violation of these assumptions
may lead to poor counterfactuals. I study the identification and estimation of a large class
of nonlinear grouped fixed effects (NGFE) models where the relationship between observed
covariates and cross-sectional unobserved heterogeneity is left unrestricted but the latter only
takes a restricted number of paths over time. I show that the corresponding “clusters” and the
nonparametrically specified link function can be point-identified when both dimensions of the
panel are large. I propose a semiparametric NGFE estimator and establish its large sample
properties in popular binary and count outcome models. Distinctive features of the NGFE
estimator are that it is asymptotically normal unbiased at parametric rates, and it allows for
the number of periods to grow slowly with the number of cross-sectional units. Monte Carlo
simulations suggest good finite sample performance. I apply this new method to revisit the so-
called inverted-U relationship between product market competition and innovation. Allowing
for clustered patterns of time-varying unobserved heterogeneity leads to a less pronounced
inverted-U relationship.
Du 07/01/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
BARBETA MARGARIT Anna (PSE)
Comparing Risk-Taking Behavior across Matrilocal and Patrilocal Women: The Power of Social Support
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 03/01/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan
GOUPILLE-LEBRET Jonathan (ENS LYON)
Tax Design, Information, and Elasticities: Evidence From the French Wealth Tax
écrit avec Bertrand GARBINTI (CREST), Mathilde MUNOZ (UC Berkeley), Stefanie STANTCHEVA (Harvard University), and Gabriel ZUCMAN (UC Berkeley)
We study a reform of the French wealth tax that dramatically reduced the amount of information that taxpayers must self-report below a certain level of wealth. Combining administrative micro-data with dynamic bunching and difference-in-differences approaches, we find large behavioral responses to this switch to a low-information regime. The reform caused a 0.5 percentage points average decrease in the annual growth rate of wealth reported by treated taxpayers each year following the switch to the low-information regime. This reduction is driven by a 4 percentage points decrease for taxpayers bunching at the information discontinuity threshold. Consistent with opacity leading to lower compliance, treated households do not experience a real change in their (third-party) reported labor and capital income. The wealth tax base becomes much more elastic in the low-information regime, illustrating the first-order role of information policy choices for tax base elasticities.