Calendrier du mois de octobre 2020
brown bag Travail et Économie Publique
Du 29/10/2020 de 12:30 à 13:30
cancelled
GOVIND Yajna (PSE)
Is naturalization a passport for better labor market integration? Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Setting
Better integration is beneficial for migrants and the host country. In this respect, granting citizenship is deemed to be an important policy to boost migrants’ integration. In this paper, I estimate the causal impact of obtaining citizenship on migrants’ labor market integration. I exploit a change in the law of naturalization through marriage in France in 2006. This reform amended the eligibility criteria of applicants by increasing the required number of years of marital life from 2 to 4, providing a quasi-experimental setting. Using administrative panel data, I first show evidence of the impact of the reform on the naturalization rates. I then use a dynamic triple differences model to estimate the labor market returns to naturalization. I find that, among those working, citizenship leads to an increase in annual earnings by 28%. It is driven by a significant increase in the number of hours worked, as well as an effect on hourly wages. A gender decomposition reveals that both men and women experience an increase in earnings, while the effect on number of hours worked is stronger for men. I further show that obtaining the nationality potentially helps reduce discrimination by signaling better language proficiency. This paper thus provides evidence that naturalization acts as a catalyst for labor market integration.
Paris Migration Seminar
Du 28/10/2020 de 17:30 à 18:30
BATISTA Catia(Nova School of Business and Economics.)
MC KENZIE David(World Bank)
Testing Classic Theories of Migration in the Lab
We use incentivized laboratory experiments to investigate how potential migrants make decisions between working in different destinations in order to test the predictions ofdifferent classic theories of migration. We test theories of income maximization, migrant skill-selection, and multi-destination choice and how the predictions and behavior under these theories vary as we vary migration costs, liquidity constraints, risk,social benefits, and incomplete information. We show how the basic income maximization model of migration with selection on observed and unobserved skills leads to a much higher migration rate and more negative skill-selection than is obtained when migration decisions take place under more realistic assumptions. Second, we find evidence of a home bias, where simply labelling a destination as “home” causes more people to choose that location. Thirdly, we investigate whether the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) assumption holds. We find it holds for most people when decisions just involve wages, costs, and liquidity constraints. However, once we add a risk of unemployment and incomplete information, IIA no longer holds for about 20 percent of our sample.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 27/10/2020 de 17:00 à 18:00
https://zoom.us/j/97117933045?pwd=VG5oY0RDaWJMbmtSY2o3Y2F5RkZxZz09
Virtual Development Economics Seminar
Du 27/10/2020 de 17:00 à 18:15
PANDE Rohini (Yale)
nvesting in the Next Generation: The Long-Run Educational Impacts of a Liquidity Shock
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 27/10/2020 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan sur inscriptions et via ZOOM
LANDAUD Fanny (NHH)
Where Does Wealth Come From? The Determinants of Wealth over the Lifetime
écrit avec with Sandra Black, Paul Devereux and Kjell Salvanes
There has been much attention given to rising wealth inequality in recent decades. However, understanding this trend requires an understanding of where wealth comes from. Using administrative data from Norway, we create a measure of potential wealth—which abstracts from differential consumption and spending behavior—to examine the role played by different components of wealth in the distribution of potential wealth. We then examine the relationship between potential wealth and observed net wealth. We find that persons in different parts of the potential wealth (or actual wealth) distribution get their wealth from very different sources. Labor income is the most important determinant of wealth, except among the top 1% where capital income and capital gains on financial assets become important. Inheritances and gifts are not an important determinant of wealth, even at the top of the wealth distribution.
Paris Migration Seminar
Du 26/10/2020 de 17:30 à 18:20
GOVIND Yajna (PSE)
Is naturalization a passport for better labor market integration? Evidence from a quasi-experimental setting
Better integration is beneficial for migrants and the host country. In this respect, granting citizenship is deemed to be an important policy to boost migrants’ integration. In this paper, I estimate the causal impact of obtaining citizenship on migrants’ labor market integration. I exploit a change in the law of naturalization through marriage in France in 2006. This reform amended the eligibility criteria of applicants by increasing the required number of years of marital life from 2 to 4, providing a quasi-experimental setting. Using administrative panel data, I first show evidence of the impact of the reform on the naturalization rates. I then use a dynamic triple differences model to estimate the labor market returns to naturalization. I find that, among those working, citizenship leads to an increase in annual earnings by 28%. It is driven by a significant increase in the number of hours worked, as well as an effect on hourly wages. A gender decomposition reveals that both men and women experience an increase in earnings, while the effect on the number of hours worked is stronger for men. I further show that obtaining the nationality potentially helps to reduce discrimination by signaling better language proficiency. This paper thus provides evidence that naturalization acts as a catalyst for labor market integration.
EPCI (Economie politique du changement institutionnel) Seminar
Du 23/10/2020 de 11:00 à 12:30
TIM VLANDAS (Oxford Institute of Social Policy)
The political effects of ageing on the economy - ZOOM : https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/97180134474?pwd=L1RVd2RSMXhDWXVZVGtmVzhKQTdCQT09
This article investigates the economic consequences of long term changes in the composition of the electorate. It focuses on the effects of ageing on the economy that operate through the growing political influence of the elderly on public policies. Since the elderly may have different policy preferences, their growing numbers and political power increasingly shape the policies and priorities that electorally responsive governments choose to pursue, with important effects on economic performance. Most research in economics, political science, social policy, sociology and population studies that either theorises the direct economic impact of ageing on the economy or the direct political impact of ageing on public policies. By contrast, I explore a third possibility, namely that the growing political power of the elderly may indirectly affect the economy. Specifically, I argue that ageing leads to lower economic growth both because the elderly direct resources in less efficient ‘consumption’ policies - instead of ‘social investment’ policies (crowding out mechanism), and because they do not penalise governments for poor economic performance as much as economically active electorate (‘unaccountability’ mechanism). To substantiate these claims, I provide evidence for the different policy preferences of the elderly, the ways parties adjust their party manifestos when faced with ageing electorates, and how the elderly penalise governments for economic mismanagement differently from the rest of the electorate. I then show that the share of the elderly is associated with more spending on pensions and health care, but less on childcare, family and labour market policies. As a result, ageing is negatively correlated with economic growth in advanced economies since the 1960s. Thus, ageing may lead to economic decline in democratic advanced capitalist countries.
Paris Migration Seminar
Du 21/10/2020 de 17:30 à 18:30
MICHAEL CLEMENS (Center for Global Developpement)
MENDOLA Mariapia(Université de Milan-Bicocca)
Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson's Paradox
How does immigration affect incomes in the countries migrants go to, and how do rising incomes shape emigration from the countries they leave? The answers depend on whether people who migrate have higher or lower productivity than people who do not migrate. Theory on this subject has long exceeded evidence. We present estimates of emigrant selection on both observed and unobserved determinants of income, from across the developing world. We use nationally representative survey data on 7,013 people making active, costly preparations to emigrate from 99 developing countries during 2010–2015. We model the relationship between these measures of selection and the income elasticity of migration. In low-income countries, people actively preparing to emigrate have 30 percent higher incomes than others overall, 14 percent higher incomes explained by observable traits such as schooling, and 12 percent higher incomes explained by unobservable traits. Within low-income countries the income elasticity of emigration demand is 0.23. The world's poor collectively treat migration not as an inferior good, but as a normal good. Any negative effect of higher income on emigration within subpopulations can reverse in the aggregate, because the composition of subpopulations shifts as incomes rise—an instance of Simpson's paradox.
Texte intégral
Development Economics Seminar
Du 21/10/2020 de 16:30 à 18:00
via ZOOM
NAVARRO-SOLA Laia (IIES Stockholm)
Secondary School Expansion through Televised Lessons: The Labor Market Returns of the Mexican Telesecundaria
In areas where there is an insufficient supply of qualified teachers, delivering instruction through technology may be a solution to meet the demand for education. This paper analyzes the educational and labor market impacts of an expansion of junior secondary education in Mexico through telesecundarias - schools using televised lessons, currently serving 1.4 million students. To isolate the effects of telesecundarias, I exploit their staggered rollout from 1968 to present. I show that for every additional telesecundaria per 50 children, ten students enroll in junior secondary education and two pursue further education. Using the telesecundaria expansion as an instrument, I find that an additional year of education induced by telesecundaria enrollment increases average income by 17.6%. This increase in income comes partly from increased labor force participation and a shift away from agriculture and the informal sector. Since schooling decisions are sequential, the estimated returns combine the direct effect of attending telesecundarias and the effects of further schooling. I decompose these two effects by interacting the telesecundaria expansion with baseline access to upper secondary institutions. Roughly 84% of the estimated returns come directly from junior secondary education, while the remaining 16% are returns to higher educational levels.
Economic History Seminar
Du 21/10/2020 de 12:30 à 14:00
Zoom
CADOREL Jean-Laurent ()
An International Monetary Explanation of the 1929 Crash of the New York Stock Exchange
The crash of the New York Stock Exchange in October 1929 was a liquidity crisis caused by the sudden removal of brokers’ loans. Based on high-frequency data, this paper documents how the Bank of England’s unexpected September discount rate rise attracted short-term international capital flows. The rate rise had such exceptional effects because it caused a reallocation of gold reserves, attracting gold from the Americas to Europe, threatening some Latin American countries’ participation in the gold standard, thereby depreciating the value of their debts in New York, and reducing bondholders’ willingness to lend.
Du 21/10/2020 de 12:30 à 14:00
via Zoom
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 20/10/2020 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan sur inscriptions et via ZOOM
MESLIN Olivier ()
Housing Wealth and Redistributive Effects of Property Tax : a Microsimulation Approach on French Data
écrit avec ANDRE Mathias
The property tax on built properties constitutes the main tax on households wealth, and the preponderant role it plays in local taxation has been reinforced by the partial abolition of the housing tax in France. However, the property tax is little studied in France and its redistributive properties remain poorly understood.
The contribution of our study is multiple. First of all, it presents a new comprehensive database on household real estate assets from various administrative sources such as the land register (“cadastre”), tax and social income, real estate transactions and data on trading real estate companies (“SCI”). Based on the Fidéli directory developped by Insee, this new source allows a detailed analysis of the concentration of real estate assets. It then details the redistributive properties of the property tax on housing and outbuildings properties. It aims in particular to measure the share of the property tax in the income and in the property holdings of households. We also document the heterogeneity of the receipts of this tax at a fine geographic level. Finally, it offers an analysis of household multi-ownership including real estate companies (“SCI”).
Régulation et Environnement
Du 19/10/2020 de 17:30 à 18:30
https://zoom.us/j/98281389413?pwd=cWxiVzVPdVdCYm1Ec2pDcDYybk5tQT09
HSIANG Solomon (Berkeley)
Accounting for Unobservable Heterogeneity in Cross Section Using Spatial First Differences
écrit avec Hannah Druckenmiller
We develop a simple cross-sectional research design to identify causal effects that is robust to unobservable heterogeneity. When many observational units are dense in physical space, it may be sufficient to regress the “spatial first differences” (SFD) of the outcome on the treatment and omit all covariates. This approach is conceptually similar to first differencing approaches in time-series or panel models, except the index for time is replaced with an index for locations in space. The SFD design identifies plausibly causal effects, even when no instruments are available, so long as local changes in the treatment and unobservable confounders are not systematically correlated between immediately adjacent neighbors. We demonstrate the SFD approach by recovering new cross-sectional estimates for the effects of time-invariant geographic factors, soil and climate, on long-run average crop productivities across US counties — relationships that are notoriously confounded by unobservables but crucial for guiding economic decisions, such as land management and climate policy.
Paris Migration Seminar
Du 19/10/2020 de 17:30 à 18:20
LEVAI Adam (UCLouvain)
The Impact of Immigration on Workers Protection
Even though the current literature investigating the labor market impact of immigration assumes implicitly or explicitly labor market regulation as exogenous to immigration (both in terms of size and composition) - this is not necessarily the case. This paper shows that the composition of the immigrant population affects the degree of workers protection over a sample of 70 developed and developing countries from 1970 to 2010. After building a workers protection index based on 36 labor law variables and exploiting a dynamic panel setting using both internal and external instruments, we find that migrants impact the destination countries' workers protection mainly through the degree of workers protection experienced in their origin countries, captured by an "epidemiological" effect. On the other hand, the size of the immigrant population has a small and rather insignificant effect. The results are robust to alternative and competing immigration effects such as diversity, polarization and skill-selection. The effects are particularly strong across two dimensions of the workers protection index: worker representation laws and employment forms laws. This paper provides suggestive evidence that immigrants' participation to unions and its implications for the political actors is one of the potential mechanisms through which the epidemiological effect could materialize. Finally, calculations based on the estimated coefficients suggest that immigration contributes to a reduction of the degree of workers protection, particularly in OECD high-income countries.
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 19/10/2020 de 13:00 à 14:00
https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/97838602106?pwd=SGtZS2ZnOUd2M1FxTlNtSGIxRHd3UT09
LONDON Melina (AMSE)
Cross-Sector Interactions in Western Europe: Lessons From Trade Credit Data
Both the ongoing US-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic have induced supply-chain disruptions. They have shown the importance of international cross-sector connections in disseminating distress. Yet, little is known about how those connections relate to trade credit. To fill the gap, this study investigates how firms' trade credit payments interact across sectors and the relation of these interactions with already documented production links. To do so, it uses an original database from one of the top three credit insurers in the world. It measures payment behavior in each sector using data on defaults on trade credit between 2007 and 2019. Data are collected for sectors in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. Using a two-step high-dimensional method, this article identifies Granger causalities across sectors. Results highlight the existence of predictive relationships between sectors' payment behavior on trade credits. A few
sectors – among which construction, wholesale and retail, and motor vehicles – tend to display a wider set of predictive relationships towards other sectors than the average. The existence of these relationships, as well as their magnitude, is positively and significantly related to intermediate good owing from one sector to the other. Such result is consistent with sector-level shock propagation patterns working through production links such as highlighted in the production network literature.
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 16/10/2020 de 12:45 à 13:45
Using Zoom
YACOUBOU DJIMA Ismael (PSE)
Exploring the Role of Caste in Shaping Socio-Economic Status in Mali
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 15/10/2020 de 16:00 à 17:30
Using zoom
IOVINO Luigi (Bocconi)
Social Insurance, Information Revelation, and Lack of Commitment
écrit avec Mikhail Golosov (University of Chicago)
We consider optimal public provision of unemployment insurance when governmentís ability to commit is imperfect. Unemployed persons privately observe arrivals of job opportunities and choose probabilities of communicating this information to the government. Imperfect commitment implies that full information revelation is generally suboptimal. We define anotion of the social value of information and show that, due to the incentive constraints, it is a convex function of the information revealed. In the optimum each person is provided with an incentive to either reveal his private information fully or not reveal any of it, but the allocation of these incentives may be stochastic. In dynamic economies unemployed persons who enter a period with higher continuation utilities reveal their private information with lower probabilities. The optimal contract can be decentralized by a joint system of unemployment and disability benefits in a way that resembles how these systems are used in practice in developed countries.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 15/10/2020 de 12:30 à 13:45
Using zoom
POSTEL VINAY Fabien (UCL)
A Structural Analysis of Mental Health and Labor Market Trajectories
écrit avec Grégory Jolivet (University of Bristol)
We analyze the joint life-cycle dynamics of labor market and mental health outcomes. We allow for two-way interactions between work and mental health. We model selection into jobs on a labor market with search frictions, accounting for the level of exposure to stress in each job using data on occupational health contents. We estimate our model on British data from Understanding Society combined with information from O*NET. We estimate the impact of job characteristics on health dynamics and of the effects of health and job stress contents on career choices. We use our model to quantify the effects of job loss or health shocks that propagate over the life cycle through both health and work channels. We also estimate the (large) values workers attach to health, employment or non-stressful jobs. Lastly, we investigate the consequences on health, employment and inequality of trend changes in the distribution of job health contents.
Paris Migration Seminar
Du 14/10/2020 de 17:30 à 18:30
KU Hyejin (UCL)
Migration and Cultural Change
écrit avec with Salin Sardoschau (Humbolt University) and Arthur Silve (Université de Laval)
We examine both theoretically and empirically how migration affects cultural change in home and host countries. Our theoretical model integrates various compositional and cultural transmission mechanisms of migration-based cultural change for which it delivers distinctive testable predictions on the sign and direction of convergence. We then use the World Value Survey for the period 1981-2014 to build time-varying measures of cultural similarity for a large number of country pairs and exploit within country-pair variation over time. Our evidence is inconsistent with the view that immigrants are a threat to the host country’s culture. While migrants do act as vectors of cultural diffusion and bringabout cultural convergence, this is mostly to disseminate cultural values and norms from host to home countries (i.e., cultural remittances).
Development Economics Seminar
Du 14/10/2020 de 16:30 à 18:00
Via ZOOM
IMELDA I. (Universidad Carlos III MADRID)
Clean Energy Access: Gender Disparity, Health, and Labor Supply
écrit avec with Anjali P. Verma
Women are known to bear the largest share of health, time, and labor supply burden associated with a lack of modern energy. In this paper, we study the impact of clean energy access on adult health and labor supply outcomes by exploiting a nationwide rollout of clean cooking fuel program in Indonesia. This program led to a large-scale fuel switching, from kerosene, a dirty fuel, to liquid petroleum gas, a cleaner one. Using longitudinal survey data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey and exploiting the staggered structure of the program rollout, we find that access to clean cooking fuel led to a significant improvement in women's health, particularly among those who spend most of their time indoors doing housework. We also find an increase in women's work hours, suggesting that access to cleaner fuel can improve women's health and plausibly their productivity, allowing them to supply more market labor. For men, we find an increase in the work hours and propensity to have an additional job, particularly in households where women accrued the largest health and labor benefits from the program. These results highlight the role of clean energy in reducing gender-disparity in health and point to the existence of positive externalities from the improved health of women on other members of the household.
Economic History Seminar
Du 14/10/2020 de 12:30 à 14:00
VIA ZOOM
GAYON Vincent (Université Paris Dauphine, IRISSO)
L’organisation internationale de l’économie dans les années 1970-1980. Une sociologie politique
Que savons-nous du fonctionnement pratique des organisations économiques internationales? Evoluent-elles dans un éther au-dessus des populations et des États? Sont-elles aussi influentes qu’on le prétend? Répondre à ces questions suppose de mener l’enquête sociologique dans ces espaces feutrés, réputés pour leur confidentialité, leur hermétisme, leur conformisme autant que pour l’anonymat de leur personnel et leur distance à l’égard des formes institutionnalisées de démocratie représentative et sociale. La réflexion s’ancrera sur l’OCDE et son projet de Welfare Society (1973-1985) qui ambitionnait de devenir le « nouveau rapport Beveridge », en intégrant le social et l’économique, voire l’écologique, et d’étendre ainsi le « Welfare State ». Ce projet a été enfoui par le « tournant néolibéral » et sa focalisation sur la « crise » de l’Etat social.
Virtual Development Economics Seminar
Du 13/10/2020 de 17:00 à 18:15
OLKEN Ben (MIT)
Tax Administration vs. Tax Rates: Evidence from Corporate Taxation in Indonesia
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 13/10/2020 de 14:45 à 16:15
Using zoom
SUVERATO Davide (ETH Zurich)
Market Power and Wage Inequality in the Global Economy
écrit avec Gianmarco Ottaviano (Bocconi University)
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 13/10/2020 de 12:30 à 13:30
Via Zoom
HU Irène (PSE)
Man Overboard! Industrial Fishing as a Driver of Out-Migration in Africa
écrit avec François Libois (PSE/INRAE)
Environmental drivers of migration attract more and more attention. This article focuses on the effect of fish stock depletion on migration in Africa and uses a novel dataset on fishing intensity (Kroodsma et al., 2018). Based on a panel of the 37 African countries with access to the sea over the period 2012-2018, we show that within country variation in fishing intensity increases migration to OECD countries. We find strong evidence that the competition created by industrial fishing vessels overfishing African seas and depleting fish stocks, increase the number of asylum seekers to OECD in general and of male asylum seekers to European OECD countries in particular. A 1% increase in the previous year’s fishing effort along an African country’s coast increases the number of asylum seekers towards the OECD by 0.05% and by 0.06% the number of male asylum seekers to European OECD countries. We then show that findings at the macro level are consistent in terms of mechanisms with micro level estimates using household level demographic data.
Paris Migration Seminar
Du 12/10/2020 de 17:30 à 18:20
SIGNORELLI Sara (University of Amsterdam)
Do Skilled Migrants Compete with Native Workers? Analysis of a Selective Immigration Policy
In recent years high-skill immigration has been often encouraged by governments aiming to support their economy, but its impact on native workers facing a direct increase in competition is still debated. This paper addresses the question by taking advantage of a reform facilitating the hiring of foreign workers within a list of technical occupations. The analysis relies on administrative employer-employee data and applies a difference-in-differences approach. Results show that the reform was successful in boosting migrants' hires without affecting native employment. Wages decrease following the supply shift but, in contrast with the standard model predictions, do so twice as much for migrants than for natives. I find that two channels explain this differential effect: imperfect degree of substitution in production and differences in bargaining power. Overall, this paper provides evidence that policies encouraging high-skill migration do not excessively harm the native labor force.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 12/10/2020 de 17:00 à 18:00
online
DORON Ravid (University of Chicago)
Persuasion via Weak Institutions
écrit avec Elliot Lipnowski and Denis Shishkin
A sender commissions a study to persuade a receiver, but influences the report with some state-dependent probability. We show that increasing this probability can benefit the receiver and can lead to a discontinuous drop in the sender's payoffs. We also examine a public-persuasion setting, where we show the sender especially prefers her report to be immune to influence in bad states. To derive our results, we geometrically characterize the sender's highest equilibrium payoff, which is based on the concave envelope of her capped value function.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 12/10/2020 de 16:00 à 17:15
on line
GUNSILIUS Florian (University of Michigan)
Distributional synthetic controls
This article extends the method of synthetic controls to probability measures. The distribution of the synthetic control group is obtained as the optimally weighted barycenter in Wasserstein space of the distributions of the control groups which minimizes the distance to the distribution of the treatment group. It can be applied to settings with disaggregated- or aggregated (functional) data. The method produces a generically unique counterfactual distribution when the data are continuously distributed. A basic representation of the barycenter provides a computationally efficient implementation via a straightforward tensor-variate regression approach. In addition, identification results are provided that also shed new light on the classical synthetic controls estimator. As an illustration, the method provides an estimate of the counterfactual distribution of household income in Colorado one year after Amendment 64.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 12/10/2020 de 12:00 à 13:00
https://zoom.us/j/98281389413?pwd=cWxiVzVPdVdCYm1Ec2pDcDYybk5tQT09
LEROUTIER Marion (PSE)
The Short-Run Effects of Maritime Traffic on Air Pollution and Health: evidence from Marseille, France
écrit avec Leo Zabrocki and Marie Abele Bind
Maritime traffic is expected to increase in the coming years due to the growth in international trade and global tourism. Today's residents of port cities benefit from the economic activity induced by maritime activities, but they also suffer from local air pollution externalities, which have triggered local public campaigns and media attention in the recent period. How much does maritime traffic contribute to local air pollution and health damages? We address this question using an exact matching procedure suited to time series data from Marseille, France's largest port city. We gathered detailed hourly and daily data on boat traffic, weather, air pollution, mortality and emergency admissions in Marseille.
We find that nitrogen dioxide and particulate matters concentrations are on average 2-3% higher than the baseline average in hours following a boat arrival or departure at the port located in the city center, compared to comparable hours with no boat traffic. The results seem to be driven by passenger boats rather than freight boats. At the daily level yet, we failed to detect a significant impact of boat traffic on short-term measures of cardio-vascular and respiratory mortality and morbidity. Future research is needed to investigate impacts at the neighborhood-level, for more subtle morbidity outcomes and in the longer term.
Paris Game Theory Seminar
Du 12/10/2020 de 11:00 à 12:00
room 314 (third floor) at Institut Henri Poincaré, 11 rue Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris 5ème.
PEREZ-RICHET Eduardo (Sciences Po, département d’économie)
Test design with unobservable falsification
We study receiver-optimal test design under manipulations by an agent who can falsify the data input of the test. We characterize an optimal test and an optimal falsification proof tests under different assumptions on the cost function, and discuss the welfare properties of such tests.
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 09/10/2020 de 12:45 à 13:45
Using Zoom
WEBB Duncan (PSE)
Understanding inequalities in COVID-19 infection across socioeconomic groups in Bogota
écrit avec Rachid Lajaaj
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 08/10/2020 de 16:00 à 17:30
PSE - 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R1-14
GABALLO Gaetano (HEC)
Learning by Shopping: Consumers' Expectations and Monetary Shocks
écrit avec Luigi Paciello (HEC, EIEF and CEPR)
New micro-evidence shows that households’ inflation expectations are influenced by
the prices they see while shopping. This paper studies the implications of the signaling
power of prices for the optimal pricing of firms, the propagation of monetary shocks
and the effectiveness of communication policies. In our theory, consumers see the prices
posted in their local markets and then choose whether to exert effort to buy at the
cheapest price in a competitive market. Upon a rise in local prices, consumers are confused
about the aggregate or local nature of the shock, and so on whether switching is
worth. Because of this confusion, an otherwise-neutral money shock coordinates consumers’
switching away from high-markup firms and increases aggregate consumption. We demonstrate the generality of this result when consumers’ demand has standard properties and firms’ pricing is friction-less. Thus, the model is able to replicate the empirical correlation of inflation and economic activity overturning the standard New Keynesian logic based on firms’ sticky prices. We embed this mechanism in a fully micro-founded general equilibrium model to show that nominal price level stabilization has first-order impact on Welfare. For realistic calibrations, providing more precise information about aggregate inflation is more valuable when mostly consumers, rather than firms, absorb it, whereas it could even be counter-productive otherwise.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 08/10/2020 de 12:30 à 13:30
salle R1-14, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris
VELLODI Nikhil (PSE)
Competition and Data Privacy on Platforms
écrit avec Erik Madsen (NYU)
Du 08/10/2020 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R2-21
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 08/10/2020 de 12:30 à 13:45
USING ZOOM
HAULTFOEUILLE Xavier (CREST)
Difference-in-Differences Estimators of Intertemporal Treatment Effects
écrit avec Clément de Chaisemartin
We consider the estimation of the effect of a policy or treatment, using panel data where different groups of units are exposed to the treatment at different times. We focus on parameters aggregating instantaneous and dynamic treatment effects, with a clear welfare interpretation. We show that under parallel trends conditions, these parameters can be unbiasedly estimated by a weighted average of differences-in-differences, provided that at least one group is always untreated, and another group is always treated. Our estimators are valid if the treatment effect is heterogeneous, contrary to the commonly-used event-study regression.?
brown bag Travail et Économie Publique
Du 08/10/2020 de 12:30 à 13:30
USING ZOOM
HAULTFOEUILLE Xavier (CREST)
Difference-in-Differences Estimators of Intertemporal Treatment Effects
écrit avec Clément de Chaisemartin
We consider the estimation of the effect of a policy or treatment, using panel data where different groups of units are exposed to the treatment at different times. We focus on parameters aggregating instantaneous and dynamic treatment effects, with a clear welfare interpretation. We show that under parallel trends conditions, these parameters can be unbiasedly estimated by a weighted average of differences-in-differences, provided that at least one group is always untreated, and another group is always treated. Our estimators are valid if the treatment effect is heterogeneous, contrary to the commonly-used event-study regression.?
Paris Migration Seminar
Du 07/10/2020 de 17:30 à 18:30
A. ERIKSSON Katherine (UC Davis)
Understanding the Success of the Know Nothing Party
écrit avec Marcella Alsan and Gregory Niemesh
The Know-Nothing Party swept to power in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts in 1854, running on a staunchly anti-Catholic and anti-Irish platform. In this paper, we examine the contribution of various factors that have been hypothesized to contribute to the party’s success. We digitize several censuses to develop exposure measures of shocks to labor supply and demand as well as measures of Irish assimilation and the fiscal burden associated with foreign-born paupers. Consistent with Fogel’s hypothesis, we find labor market crowd-out from the Irish is positively correlated with Know-Nothing vote shares. Yet, as emphasized by Mulkern (1990) industrialization and associated deskilling of the labor force was as important. These two forces played a decisive role in some, but not all, years of the Know-Nothing’s electoral success and stronghold locations were unaffected by both. Lastly, we find migration and occupational upgrading partially offset the negative association between Irish labor crowdout and the evolution of wealth for native-born men.
Development Economics Seminar
Du 07/10/2020 de 17:00 à 18:00
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan
C.AKER Jenny (Tufst University )
CANCELLED AND POSTPONED Let it Rain: What Drives the Adoption of Environmental Technologies in the Sahel ?
écrit avec with B. Kelsey Jack.
Economic History Seminar
Du 07/10/2020 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R2.21 Campus Jourdan, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris
SAINT-RAYMOND Léa (IHMC - ENS)
« La Bourse de l’art et du bric-à-brac » : une histoire économique des ventes aux enchères publiques parisiennes (1830-1939)
En 1906, un article anonyme, intitulé « Sous le marteau du commissaire-priseur », désigna l’hôtel Drouot comme « la Bourse de l’art et du bric-à-brac ». Cette expression résume, à elle seule, la double conception de cet hôtel des ventes aux enchères publiques parisiennes, considéré à la fois comme un bazar et comme un temple de la spéculation. Néanmoins, la comparaison avec le marché financier est loin d’être évidente. Raymonde Moulin écrivait, en 1967, que « l’assimilation entre l’hôtel Drouot et la Bourse n’est pas légitime, bien que largement répandue ». Le but de cette présentation est d’apporter un nouvel éclairage sur l’histoire des ventes aux enchères publiques à partir des archives des commissaires-priseurs parisiens. Celles-ci rendent possible l’analyse des différents segments – des tableaux, dessins et sculptures, en passant par les estampes, les objets d’art, les monnaies ou encore les bonsaïs et les silex – mais elles donnent également accès à des données plus macroéconomiques, permettant de mesurer la sensibilité du marché de l’art avec le marché financier.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 06/10/2020 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan
GETHIN Amory (PSE)
Estimating the Distribution of Household Wealth in South Africa
écrit avec Aroop Chatterjee, Léo Czajka
This paper estimates the distribution of personal wealth in South Africa by combining tax microdata covering the universe of income tax returns, household surveys and macroeconomic balance sheets statistics. We systematically compare estimates of the wealth distribution obtained by direct measurement of net worth, rescaling of reported wealth to balance sheets totals, and capitalisation of income flows. We document major inconsistencies between available data sources, in particular regarding the measurement of dividends, corporate assets and wealth held through trusts. Both household surveys and tax data remain insufficient to properly capture capital incomes. Notwithstanding a significant degree of uncertainty, our findings reveal unparalleled levels of wealth concentration. The top 10 per cent own 86 per cent of aggregate wealth and the top 0.1 per cent close to one third. The top 0.01 per cent of the distribution (3,500 individuals) concentrate 15 per cent of household net worth, more than the bottom 90 per cent as a whole. Such high levels of inequality can be accounted for in all forms of assets at the top end, including housing, pension funds and other financial assets. Our series show no sign of decreasing wealth inequality since apartheid: if anything, we find that inequality has remained broadly stable and has even slightly increased within top wealth groups.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 05/10/2020 de 17:30 à 18:30
https://zoom.us/j/98281389413?pwd=cWxiVzVPdVdCYm1Ec2pDcDYybk5tQT09
MENG Kyle (UCSB)
Spatial Correlation, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from the Global Climate
écrit avec Jonathan I. Dingel Chicago Booth & NBER, Solomon M. Hsiang UC Berkeley & NBER
This paper shows that greater global spatial correlation of productivities can increase crosscountry welfare dispersion by increasing the correlation between a country’s productivity and its gains from trade. We causally validate this prediction using a global climatic phenomenon as a natural experiment. We ?nd that gains from trade in cereals over the last half-century were larger for more productive countries and smaller for less productive countries when cereal productivity was more spatially correlated. Incorporating this role for spatial interdependence into a projection of climate-change impacts raises projected international inequality, with higher welfare losses across most of Africa.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 05/10/2020 de 17:00 à 18:00
https://zoom.us/j/92600440081?pwd=NEN5RlBFQ1pWWlhQc2c5VHRabUllZz09
ALGER Ingela (TSE)
Homo Moralis goes to the voting booth
écrit avec Jean-François Laslier
The paper reviews the implications of evolutionary Kantian morality for three classical problems in the theory of voting: the divided majority problem, the costly participation dilemma, and the strategic revelation of information.
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 05/10/2020 de 13:00 à 14:00
https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/99631640491?pwd=WlpUZXJhNHdHNm42cHBMQXJvTEhPQT09
BOCQUET Leonard (PSE)
Inefficient Market Selection: The Role of Uncertainty and Credit Frictions
According to Schumpeterian theory, recessions should have a cleansing effect on the economy: low productive firms are pushed to exit while high productive firms manage to survive, thereby increasing average productivity. However, new empirical evidence reports that highly productive firms default too during downturns, hence implying that market selection is not efficient during recessions (Guerini et al. 2020). What causes market selection to become inefficient? In this paper, we argue that Schumpeterian theory confuses productivity and profitability. Any mechanism weakening the correlation between the former and the latter worsens the quality of market selection. Here, we propose a model of heterogeneous firms with an endogenous exit margin, incorporating two of such mechanisms. First, uncertainty generates a potential discrepancy between the sales and the costs: high productive firms which failed to anticipate correctly their level of sales can make very low profits. Second, financial frictions lead unproductive firms to be more credit constrained, hence preventing them to take too much risk and reducing their risk of default. Finally, we show that the distribution of leverage is a sufficient statistic for assessing whether recessions are cleansing or not.
Paris Game Theory Seminar
Du 05/10/2020 de 11:00 à 12:00
room 314 (third floor) at Institut Henri Poincaré, 11 rue Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris 5ème.
AMOUSSOU-GUENOU Yackolley (CEA List & LIP6, Sorbonne Université)
Is distributed consensus possible in committee-based blockchains?
We study the rational behaviors of participants in committee-based blockchains. Committee-based blockchains rely on specific blockchain consensus that must be guaranteed in presence of rational participants. We consider a simplified blockchain consensus algorithm based on existing or proposed committee-based blockchains that encapsulates the main actions of the participants: voting for a block, and checking its validity. Knowing that those actions have costs, and achieving the consensus gives rewards to committee members, we study using game theory how strategic players behave while trying to maximizing their gains.
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 02/10/2020 de 12:45 à 13:45
Using ZOOM
PELRAS Charlotte (PSE)
Impact evaluation project on parenting programme in Côte d'Ivoire
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 01/10/2020 de 16:00 à 17:30
Using Zoom
MUELLER Gernot (Tuebingen)
The exchange-rate insulation puzzle
écrit avec Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester and Sebastian Schmidt
According to the received wisdom, flexible exchange rates insulate a country from foreign shocks. This notion is well grounded in theory, from the classics (Meade 1951, Friedman 1953) to the more recent dominant currency paradigm (Gopinath et al 2020). We confront it with new evidence from Europe. Specifically, we study how monetary and financial shocks that originate the euro area spill over to its neighbor countries. We exploit the variation of the exchange rate regime across time and countries to assess whether it alters the spillovers: it does not – flexible exchange rates fail to provide insulation against euro area shocks. This result is robust across a number of specifications and holds up once we control for global financial conditions. Based on standard theory, we offer a simple explanation for the lack of insulation: if central banks pursue a inflation targeting strategy based on consumer prices, the response of the exchange rate to foreign shock is muted and there is hardly any more insulation than under an exchange rate peg.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 01/10/2020 de 12:30 à 13:30
salle R1-14, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris
MUN Sofiia (CES, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)
An Econometric Estimation of Prospect Theory for Natural Uncertainty
écrit avec Emmanuel Kemel (HEC-Paris)
Prospect Theory (PT) has been one of the most experimentally studied models for describing behavior under risk. This model also applies to decisions involving natural sources of uncertainty, the context in which probabilities are unknown, and that concerns the large majority of real-life decisions. Surprisingly however, the literature does not propose any elicitation of PT in such context.
The paper reports a lab experiment allowing to estimate all the PT parameters in decisions involving a natural source of uncertainty: the participation rate in the 2019 European Parliament elections in the UK. This source is a genuine example of uncertainty inasmuch as is has no objective probability distribution, nor even past frequencies related to similar (Brexit) context. We analyzed the data using structural econometric modeling, that allows to estimate subjective probabilities, jointly with PT components. We also elicited PT parameters for risk, considered as a benchmark, in a within-subject design.
The main features of CPT apply under natural uncertainty: attitudes follow the fourfold pattern, and evidence for loss aversion is captured. Additionally, the estimated subjective probabilities give plausible results.
Behavior seminar
Du 01/10/2020 de 11:00 à 12:00
online
GRIMALDA Gianluca (Kiel University)
Sanctions and International Interactions Improve Cooperation to Prevent Collective Losses
écrit avec Alexis Belianin, Heike Hennig-Schmidt, Till Requate, Marina V. Ryzhkova
The use of sanctions is often invoked to bolster international agreements. For instance, it has been proposed to link climate change agreements – where costs of compliance normally exceed the benefits for a country - with trade sanctions – where a country normally benefits from having sanctions removed. We investigate whether sanctions may improve international cooperation experimentally.
Participants are involved in a “collective risk social dilemma” (CRSD), where groups of individuals are threatened by the possibility of a large loss in their savings. The loss probability is proportional to the amount of “insurance” bought by individuals. Crucially, insurance bought by an individual reduces the risk of loss for all individuals. Self-interested individuals will free ride on others’ without buying any insurance. This would lead to a “tragedy of the commons” because the collective loss would occur with certainty. The cooperative solution is instead for the group to reduce the probability of loss to 30%.
We involve German and Russian participants because, according to previous research, the two populations belong to different cultural areas with respect to the effectiveness of sanctions in sustaining cooperation. German participants can typically rely on sanctions to significantly increase group cooperation, whereas sanctions are typically detrimental in Russia, because of the high levels of anti-social punishment – i.e. punishment of cooperators – and of vengeance against punishers. This is the first experiment where the effectiveness of punishment is tested internationally. The use of populations from different cultural areas makes the prospect of cooperation particularly demanding.
We implemented eight different experimental conditions, in which the CRSD is played within countries or between countries, with or without sanctions, either revealing or not revealing the nationality of the counterparts. We find that: (1) German groups achieve higher cooperation - that is, probability of loss avoidance - than Russian groups in within-country interactions. (2) Introducing sanctions significantly increases the probability of loss avoidance in Germany, but not in Russia. (3) Cooperative behavior by Russian participants significantly increases and converges to cooperative behavior by German participants in international interactions when sanctions are available. The convergence is slower when sanctions are not available. (4) Results are the same regardless of whether national identities are revealed or not revealed. (5) Expected payoffs are always higher in the non-sanction conditions than in sanction conditions. Arguably, this is the case because people are risk averse and attach high value to a certainty premium.