Calendrier du mois de octobre 2023
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 31/10/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21
FLORES Ignacio (World Inequality Database, PSE)
Does Land Inequality Magnify Climate Change Effects? Evidence from French Agriculture
In this study, we explore how different levels of farmland inequality can mediate the adverse effects of heatwaves on agricultural productivity. Leveraging a unique data set that merges French land registry records with satellite imagery, we show that areas with pronounced land-ownership consolidation face steeper declines in productivity during thermal shocks --i.e., Gross Primary Productivity. We then show that regions with more unequal land distribution exhibit diminished crop diversity, a pattern consistent with a simple model in which the incentives for specialisation exist. We provide new evidence to examine the productivity-resilience trade-off, according to which more unequal regions tend to be more productive in normal times, but less resilient under extreme weather. Our findings have implications for farmers' and policymakers' view on the determinants of optimal agricultural production when considering diversity-trade-offs in the face of the climate change, with direct implications on resilience and stability.
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 27/10/2023 de 13:00 à 14:00
R1-09
MONTOYA María (PSE)
Growing up around drug cartels: exposure to criminal careers and education choices
brown bag Travail et Économie Publique
Du 26/10/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
ASAI Kentaro (PSE)
Firm-Level Effects of Reductions in Working Hours
This paper explores how legislative reduction in working hours impacts firms. We exploit the Portuguese transition to the 40-hour week in the 1990s, when Portugal gradually began to reduce the length of the standard working week by means of collective agreement, and then suddenly decrease it to 40 as the result of an election. We show that firms that did not adjust voluntarily hours before the reform were experiencing higher labor demand in the pre-reform period, and then decreased both employment and output. We argue this is the result of increased labor cost, as nominal salaries did not adjust and hourly wages rose. Moreover, we show that firms in collective agreements that autonomously adjusted their hours prior to the reform had a relatively stagnant labor demand, and did not experience employment and output losses relative to unaffected firms, despite a similar increase in the labor cost.
Economic History Seminar
Du 25/10/2023 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1.09
BARBOT Michela (IDHE.S-ENS Paris Saclay)
L’estimation des biens, un dispositif d’enforcement contractuel ? Les cas français et italien en perspective comparée (XVIIe -début XIXe siècle)
La présente recherche porte sur le rôle de l’estimation en tant que moyen de réduction des incertitudes qui menacent la stabilité et l’exécution des contrats comportant la fixation d’un prix. Cette problématique est analysée à partir d’une comparaison entre la France et l’Italie (XVIIe-début du XIXe siècle), réalisée en mobilisant des règlements, des ouvrages juridiques, des manuels d’estimation, ainsi qu’une série d’expertises immobilières rédigées à Milan et à Paris. Cette comparaison révèle l’existence de deux différentes modalités institutionnelles de faire face aux incertitudes qui pèsent sur les prix et les contrats. Alors qu’en Italie la voie choisie consiste à faire de l’estimation une véritable procédure juridique et à encourager ouvertement le recours à un estimateur, en France le problème de la garantie des accords contractuels est davantage résolu par l’adoption d’une série de normes qui interviennent, en amont, sur le contrôle et la certification de la qualité des biens échangés. Cette divergence est confirmée également par l’analyse des expertises à Milan et à Paris, qui montre que les fonctions attribuées à l’estimation dépendent aussi de manière déterminante de la structure de la propriété, des modes de sa transmission et des formes de son imposition fiscale.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 24/10/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21
STRICOT Maëlle (PSE)
Does news coverage of violence against women affect its reporting and judicial treatment? Evidence from French administrative data
This paper explores how news coverage of violence against women (VAW) affects the reporting and judicial treatment of sexual and domestic violence. I combine high-frequency data on French TV news content with new administrative data on all cases handled by the judicial system in France. Exploiting the quasi-random timing of news in the short run, I find that prosecutors are less likely to dismiss a case after news coverage of VAW crimes. The effect amounts to a 2% increase in prosecutions of perpetrators of VAW in the week following the news coverage, mainly for domestic violence. There is no detectable impact of news on VAW crimes on the propensity to report sexual or domestic violence, but news on law and social affairs relating to VAW leads to a small increase in reporting. The results suggest that the media can influence prosecutors’ decisions, which corresponds to a critical stage in the judicial process as around 80% of complaints are dismissed at this stage. These findings imply that documenting and talking about VAW is important to raise prosecution and combat such violence.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 23/10/2023 de 17:00 à 18:30
R1-09
ORLOV Dmitry (Wisconsin-Madison)
Exchanging Information (with Andrzej Skrzypacz and Pavel Zryumov)
We analyze a class of dynamic games of information exchange between two players. Each agent
possesses information about a binary state that is of interest to the other player and cares about
the other player’s actions. Preferences are additively separable over own and the other player’s
actions. We fully characterize the set of equilibrium payoffs that can be sustained in such
games and construct equilibria that achieve those payoffs. We show that gradual information
exchange dominates static (one-shot) communication. Moreover, the whole set of outcomes
that Pareto-dominate static communication can be supported in equilibrium.
Du 23/10/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1.14
AGER Philipp (Mannheim University)
Gender-biased technological change: Milking machines and the exodus of women from farming (joint with Marc Goni and Kjell G. Salvanes)
This paper studies the link between gender-biased technological change in the agricultural sector and structural transformation in Norway. After WWII, Norwegian farms began widely adopting milking machines to replace the hand milking of cows, a task typically performed by women. Combining population-wide panel data from the Norwegian registry with municipality-level data from the Census of Agriculture, we show that the adoption of milking machines triggered a process of structural transformation by displacing young rural women from their traditional jobs on farms in dairy-intensive municipalities. The displaced women moved to urban areas where they acquired a higher level of education and found better-paid employment. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a Roy model of comparative advantage, extended to account for task automation and the gender division of labor in the agricultural sector. We also quantify significant inter-generational effects of this gender-biased technology adoption. Our results imply that the mechanization of farming has broken deeply rooted gender norms, transformed women’s work, and improved their long-term educational and earning opportunities, relative to men.
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 20/10/2023 de 13:00 à 14:00
R1-09
JOUBERT Clement (World Bank)
Divorce Legalization and Marital Investment
écrit avec Sekyu Choi (University of Bristol)
With the 2004 Civil Marriage Act, Chile is to date the last country to make divorce legal. The new law established women’s right to child support and financial compensation for home production during marriage. While previous literature associates easier divorce with lower investment in marriages, we find preliminary evidence that marriage rates and fertility were positively affected by the law which also reduced female labor supply and assortative matching, with important disparities by schooling attainment. These patterns suggest that marital investment was risky for women in the event of informal separations and that child support, alimony, and the option to remarry provide insurance against that risk, making marriage more appealing.
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 20/10/2023 de 12:00 à 13:00
Salle R1-14
ANDRé Loris (PSE)
‘Do I get my money back?’: A Broader Approach to Inequality and Redistribution in France With a Monetary Valuation of Public Services
écrit avec with Jean-Marc Germain and Michaël Sicsic
Who benefits from public transfers after paying taxes? This paper develops an extended approach of redistribution, allocating 100% of national income and transfers between various categories of households. We complete Piketty, Saez, Zucman (2018) with a new micro-founded methods to monetize and allocate in-kind transfers and collective public services in France. We find that 60% of households are net beneficiaries of extended redistribution. The impact of redistribution on attenuation of inequalities is two times larger than with the usual monetary approach, with a major role for health and education. An analysis over age groups highlights a “tragedy of horizons”: 90% of individuals over the age of 60 receive more than they pay, mainly via retirement pensions and health, versus less than 50% for those under the age of 60. Other types of analysis, such as family, gender, geographic area or social class, confirm the importance of the extended approach to properly assessing redistribution.
EPCI (Economie politique du changement institutionnel) Seminar
Du 20/10/2023 de 11:00 à 12:30
MSE salle de 6ème étage
POLLAK Catherine (DREES-Min. de la Santé)
Behavioral interventions to promote adherence to clinical guidelines
The talk will discuss some insights from a yearlong research project analyzing the use of behavioral science to improve clinicians’ prescriptions and adherence to clinical guidelines, in particular : What is the potential for nudges to improve guideline adherence ? What can we learn from successful and failed interventions ? How should we design RCTs for evidence-based policies ? And what are the next challenges for behavioral interventions ?
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 19/10/2023 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
VIOLANTE Gianluca (Princeton)
Job Amenity Shocks and Labor Reallocation
écrit avec Sadhika Bagga, Lukas Mann and Aysegul Sahin
Du 19/10/2023 de 16:00 à 17:00
R1.14
ROBERTSON Charlotte (Harvard Business School)
Integral Outside: The Marseille Coulisse, the Electric Telegraph, and the Politics of Pricing in Second Empire France
brown bag Travail et Économie Publique
Du 19/10/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
SIRUGUE Louis (PSE)
To become or not to become French: Conscription, naturalization, and labor market integration
écrit avec Yajna Govind
We examine the effect of changing naturalization costs on the choice of second-generation migrants to become French, and the labor market effects of citizenship acquisition. We exploit the 1997 reform that abolished compulsory conscription for men born after 1978. It constitutes a drop in naturalization costs because after the reform, obtaining French citizenship is no longer tied to doing the military service. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that this sudden cost reduction induced a jump in naturalization rates. This effect is entirely driven by European Union citizens, for whom the military service cost is binding. We exploit this shock in a synthetic difference-in-differences setting and find that it raised their probability to be in employment by 2 percentage points, mainly through a reduction in inactivity rather than unemployment. We provide suggestive evidence that this effect is mainly driven by an increase in public-sector employment and a reduction in self-employment, and is associated with an enhanced sense of belonging and a reduction in perceived discrimination.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 19/10/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1-15
MACKENZIE Andrew (Maastricht University)
Tract housing, the core, and pendulum auctions
écrit avec Andrew Mackenzie and Yu Zhou
We consider a model of tract housing where buyers and sellers have (i) wealth constraints, and (ii) unit demand over identical indivisible objects represented by a valuation. First, we characterize the strong core. Second, we characterize the bilateral weak core, or the weak core allocations with no side-payments. Finally, when buyer wealth constraints and valuations are private information and when transfers are discrete, we introduce two families of pendulum auctions, both of which consist of obviously strategy-proof implementations of the bilateral weak core. The buyer-optimal pendulum auctions are preferred by the buyers but are inefficient when side-payments are possible, while the efficient pendulum auctions are efficient
PEPES (Paris Empirical Political Economics) Working Group
Du 19/10/2023 de 12:30 à 14:00
R2.01
SOUZA Pedro ()
De-Escalation Technology: The Impact of Body-Worn Cameras on Citizen-Police Interactions
écrit avec Daniel Barbosa, Thiemo Fetzer, and Caterina Viaira
We provide experimental evidence that monitoring of police activity through body-worn cameras reduces use of force, handcuffs and arrests, and enhances criminal reporting by the police. Stronger treatment effects occur on events ex-ante classified as low risk. Monitoring effects are moderated by officer rank, which is consistent with a career concern motive by junior officers. We reconcile our estimates with the literature which has, to date, shown mixed results. We rule out the hypothesis that de-policing is occurring due to BWC. Overall, our results show that body-worn cameras robustly de-escalate citizen-police interactions, and we show the mechanisms as to why that happens
Behavior seminar
Du 19/10/2023 de 11:00 à 12:00
P005
BURONE SCHAFFNER Santiago German (University of Antwerp)
Measuring multidimensional well-being when preferences differ: a non-parametric approach
A multidimensional well-being measure that respects individual preference heterogeneity, even when these preferences are incomplete, is presented in this paper. We discuss how the proposed well-being measure can be implemented in a non-parametric way, using the Adaptive Bisectional Dichotomous Choice (ABDC) method (Decancq and Nys, 2021). The ABDC method consists of two steps. In the first step, respondents are presented with a series of dichotomous choices between pairs of life situations that
consist of their actual and hypothetical life situations. Considering three dimensions of well-being (income, health, and social relationships) we measure well-being for a final sample of 2288 Dutch citizens. About 27 percent of respondents indicate to have incomplete preferences over these three dimensions, by selecting the response category ”I don’t know” in the algorithm.
Results indicate that individuals with better health are less likely to answer “I don’t know”, suggesting that individuals have more complete preferences when assessing situations similar to their current lives. On average, respondents are willing to trade off approximately 24% of their income for perfect health and social relationships (although the variability is large). The identification
of the worst-off individuals is dependent on the well-being measure used, underscoring the importance of careful consideration when selecting appropriate measures of well-being. Furthermore, our data enable us to compare three methods for eliciting preferences to estimate our multidimensional measure of well-being: subjective well-being, contingent valuation, and ABDC. The evidence suggests that results are more consistent for individuals with complete preferences.
Behavior Working Group
Du 19/10/2023 de 10:00 à 11:00
R1-14
WEBB Duncan (PSE)
Silence to Solidarity: Using Group Dynamics to Reduce Anti-Transgender Discrimination in India
Discrimination is often believed to be the result of deep-seated prejudice against a minority, or of beliefs that can only change upon the revelation of new information. But social context — in particular, how people behave differently in groups — may be a more important determinant of discrimination than traditional theories of discrimination suggest. This paper shows that involving majority-group members in a group discussion and hiring decision can sharply reduce hiring discrimination against a stigmatized minority. I focus on discrimination against the transgender community in India, a highly visible and economically vulnerable group. In a control condition, participants on average sacri?ce almost double their daily food expenditure to avoid selecting a transgender individual to deliver food to their home. But if they were earlier involved in a group discussion and collective hiring decision with two of their neighbours, they no longer discriminate at all, even when making subsequent choices in private. This effect is stronger than the effect of informing people about the legal rights of transgender people, and the reduction in discrimination partially persists until around 1 month later. The results appear to be driven by the emergence of a strong pro-trans norm in the groups, supported by pro-social reasons for selecting transgender workers that persuade others to discriminate less.
Development Economics Seminar
Du 18/10/2023 de 16:30 à 18:00
R2.01
ARCHIBONG Belinda (Barnard College, Columbia University)
Information Frictions and Gender Inequality in Online Labor Markets
We study the effects of information frictions on gender gaps in matching and hiring in online labor markets. Administrative data from a large online job platform in Nigeria suggest significant gender differences in job applications, hiring and potential mismatch by gender. Women are less likely to apply to senior level jobs, despite being equally qualified for positions. Women are also less likely to be hired. We implement randomized experiments that provide information on these patterns, along with diversity encouragement information, separately, to applicants and hiring managers. The results so far demonstrate the importance of providing information to both sides of the online labor market and suggest that information can reduce gender gaps in employment by correcting misinformation among misinformed applicants and hiring managers
Economic History Seminar
Du 18/10/2023 de 12:00 à 13:00
R1.09
GOBBI Paula (Université Libre de Bruxelles)
Revolutionary Transition: Inheritance Change and Fertility Decline
écrit avec Joint with Victor Gay and Marc Goñi
We test Le Play’s (1884) hypothesis that the French Revolution contributedto France’s early fertility decline. In 1793, a series of inheritance reformsabolished local inheritance practices, imposing equal partition of assetsamong all children. We develop a theoretical framework that predictsa decline in fertility following these reforms because of indivisibility con-straints in parents’ assets. We test this hypothesis by combining a newlycreated map of pre-Revolution local inheritance practices together withdemographic data from the Henry database and from crowdsourced ge-neaologies in Geni.com. We provide difference-in-differences and regression-discontinuity estimates based on comparing cohorts of fertile age and co-horts too old to be fertile in 1793 between municipalities where the reformsaltered and did not alter existing inheritance practices. We find that the1793 inheritance reforms reduced completed fertility by half to one child,closed the pre-reform fertility gap between different inheritance regions, andsharply accelerated France’s early fertility transition
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 17/10/2023 de 14:45 à 16:15
Sciences Po, 28 rue des Saints-Pères, 75007 Paris (M° Saint Germain des Prés), SALLE H 405
TASCHEREAU-DUMOUCHEL Mathieu (Cornell)
Endogenous Production Networks under Supply Chain Uncertainty
écrit avec Alexandr Kopytov, Bineet Mishra and Kristoffer Nimark
Supply chain disturbances can lead to substantial increases in production costs. To mitigate these risks, firms may take steps to reduce their reliance on volatile suppliers. We construct a model of endogenous network formation to investigate how these decisions affect the structure of the production network and the level and volatility of macroeconomic aggregates. When uncertainty increases in the model, producers prefer to purchase from more stable suppliers, even though they might sell at higher prices. The resulting reorganization of the network leads to less macroeconomic volatility, but at the cost of a decline in aggregate output. The model also predicts that more productive and stable firms have higher Domar weights—a measure of their importance as suppliers—in the equilibrium network. We calibrate the model to U.S. data and find that the mechanism can account for a sizable decline in expected GDP during periods of high uncertainty like the Great Recession.
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Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 17/10/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21
KAMEL Donia (PSE)
Skin Tone Penalties: Bottom-up Discrimination in Football
écrit avec Guillermo Woo-Mora
This paper investigates colorism, racial discrimination based on skin color, in men’s football. Firstly, using machine learning algorithms, we extract players’ skin tones from online headshots to examine their impact on fan-based ratings and valuations. We find evidence of a skin tone penalty, where darker-skinned players face lower fan-driven market values and ratings. Secondly, using algorithm-based ratings and employing a Difference-in-Discontinuities design with geolocated penalty kicks data, we show that lighter-skinned players enjoy a premium higher by 1.25 standard deviations than their darker-skinned peers, conditional on scoring a penalty. Additionally, we find evidence that non-native players with dark skin face a double penalty. Leveraging the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, we highlight the role of fans’ stadium attendance in algorithm-based results. The findings underscore direct skin tone discrimination in football and highlight fans’ role in perpetuating algorithmic bias.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 17/10/2023
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, Amphitheater
Econometrics Seminar
Du 16/10/2023 de 18:00 à 19:15
ZOOM
CHETVERIKOV Denis (UCLA)
Spectral and post-spectral estimators for grouped panel data models
écrit avec Co-author: Elena Manresa
In this paper, we develop spectral and post-spectral estimators for grouped panel data models. Both estimators are consistent in the asymptotics where the number of observations N and the number of time periods T simultaneously grow large. In addition, the post-spectral estimator is sqrt(NT)-consistent and asymptotically normal with mean zero under the assumption of well-separated groups even if T is growing much slower than N. The post-spectral estimator has, therefore, theoretical properties that are comparable to those of the grouped fixed-effect estimator developed by Bonhomme and Manresa (2015). In contrast to the grouped fixed-effect estimator, however, our post-spectral estimator is computationally straightforward.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 16/10/2023 de 17:00 à 18:30
R1-09
NETZER Nick (U Zurich)
Endogenous Risk Attitudes (with Arthur Robson, Jakub Steiner and Pavel Kocourek)
In a model inspired by neuroscience, we show that constrained optimal perception
encodes lottery rewards using an S-shaped encoding function and over-samples low-
probability events. The implications of this perception strategy for behavior depend
on the decision-maker’s understanding of the risk. The strategy does not distort choice
in the limit as perception frictions vanish when the decision-maker fully understands
the decision problem. If, however, the decision-maker underrates the complexity of
the decision problem, then risk attitudes re?ect properties of the perception strategy
even for vanishing perception frictions. The model explains adaptive risk attitudes
and probability weighting as in prospect theory and, additionally, predicts that risk
attitudes are strengthened by time pressure and attenuated by anticipation of large
risks.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 16/10/2023 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1-09
GOEDDE Julius (PSE)
Satiation, unraveling and capping prices. Designing peer-to-peer platforms with internal currencies
I examine how peer-to-peer sharing platforms that use internal currencies instead of real money should set prices. Individuals must earn currency by supplying on the platform and can only spend it by consuming on the same platform. Beyond this difference, such systems often mimic real markets where prices equalize demand and supply. I argue that non-market-clearing prices can be superior. As individuals typically only have a limited demand for the specific goods on the platform, some may become satiated and reduce their supply. This might induce others to reduce their supply in turn and thus lead to unraveling. I illustrate with a stylized model of a dynamic exchange economy that reducing the price of attractive goods may increase their supply and aggregate welfare. In the empirical part, I focus on a widely-used platform for exchanging holiday homes. Using proprietary data on the universe of transactions I confirm key predictions of the model. My results suggest that satiation is quantitatively important. Thus, compressed prices might indeed improve upon market-clearing prices - despite possible side-effects like misallocation. A broader insight is that lessons from traditional markets may not easily extend to markets without real money.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 16/10/2023
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, Amphitheater
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 13/10/2023 de 13:00 à 14:00
R1-09
WOO MORA Guillermo (PSE)
On the other side of the creek: The evolution and persistence of colonial zoning stigma
PSE Internal Seminar
Du 13/10/2023 de 12:00 à 13:00
SHLEIFER Andrei (Harvard University)
Cognitive Economics
écrit avec Invited guest lecture by Andrei Shleifer (Harvard University)
Human choices are often unstable, dependent on normatively irrelevant features of the problem, and variable across people in similar situations. Standard economics resolves these challenges by constructing exotic preferences. Behavioral economics deals with them by proliferating biases. Neither unifies different phenomena effectively. An alternative strategy is to start with regularities of human cognition, such as perception, attention, and memory, and to derive how people represent problems, form beliefs, and make choices from those foundations. This approach unifies theoretically a broad range of puzzling findings, and incorporates new strategies of measurement and prediction. We illustrate the ideas of cognitive
economics with examples of finance, macroeconomics, labor economics, political economy, and risk assessment using both experimental and field data.
Du 12/10/2023 de 16:00 à 17:00
R1.14
CADOREL Jean-Laurent ()
The french historical yield curve since 1870
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 12/10/2023 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-01
ELSBY Mike (University of Edinburgh)
Spatial Hysteresis
We devise a tractable model of persistent heterogeneity in the propensity to move. The model admits analytical solutions for household values, migration flows, and the distribution of mobility types across space, a fundamental challenge posed by the environment. Equilibrium mobility is ordered: locations facing adverse (favorable) shocks shrink (grow) via population flows in order of mobility type, starting with the most mobile. Spatial gaps emerge not only in labor market outcomes, but also in the composition of mobility types. Spatial convergence involves closing both gaps, and generically takes longer. Labor market outcomes display endogenous history dependence whereby locations with greater shares of mobile types exhibit greater resilience to adverse shocks. Auspicious locations are heterogeneous and feature high population churn; inauspicious locations become increasingly homogeneous and sclerotic. Confronting the model with data on population flows dating back to the 1960s, we find support for these predictions.
Macro Workshop
Du 12/10/2023 de 13:00 à 14:30
R1-13
ELINA Eustache (PSE)
From Labor Income to Wealth Inequality: General Equilibrium
The past 40 years have been characterized by a decrease in the rate of return on safe assets, an increase in the equity premium, an increase in the price of financial assets, and an increase in labor income and wealth inequality. Using a heterogeneous-agent model featuring permanent labor income inequality, a two-asset structure, and non-homothetic preferences, we investigate the impact of an increase in permanent labor income inequality on wealth inequality. As rich households save a higher share of their permanent income than poorer ones, a more skewed permanent labor income distribution increases aggregate savings. With imperfect competition, a higher level of savings leads to a higher valuation of firms and a limited increase in capital stock. The induced capital gains increase wealth inequality due to portfolio heterogeneity
PEPES (Paris Empirical Political Economics) Working Group
Du 12/10/2023 de 12:30 à 14:00
R2.01
BISIN Alberto ()
Marriage, Fertility, and Cultural Integration in Italy - with Giulia Tura (Università Milano - Bicocca)
We study cultural integration as an equilibrium of marital matching and intrahousehold decisions regarding fertility and cultural socialization. Structural estimates reveal strong demand to preserve cultural identity on the part of immigrants and little acceptance of the immigrants’ cultural diversity of natives. These demands depend crucially and interestingly on parental education. Nonetheless, we simulate substantial, though heterogeneous, integration rates across immigrant groups, 75% on average over one generation. Counterfactuals show how more accepting preferences of the natives would lead to slower cultural integration, while a reduction in economic incentives to immigrants would increase it. Finally, we evaluate a policy enhancing social welfare by strengthening the ethnic network of immigrants.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 12/10/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
KOTSADAM Andreas (University of Oslo)
Peer effects on authoritarianism – Evidence from the Norwegian Armed Forces
We explore the social basis of authoritarian orientations, proposing that attitudes are molded by perceptions of what is adequate in a given social setting. We test this proposition through a pre-registered field and survey experiment in the Norwegian Armed Forces, randomly assigning soldiers to different rooms and finding that assignment to roommates with higher levels of authoritarian orientations increased soldiers' own authoritarianism. Further survey-experimental evidence reveal that learning about others' authoritarianism levels changed both perceptions and attitudes. The findings suggest that authoritarian orientations have a social basis, rather than being a deeply held and stable orientation shaped merely by formative experiences.
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 11/10/2023 de 16:30 à 17:30
R2-01
ROGGE Lisa (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Institute of Economics)
Cost and Medical Uncertainty in Health Care Seeking
Cost and medical uncertainty in health care seeking (joint work with Alina Imping and Andreas Landmann)
Health care decisions are sometimes a matter of life and death, but also their financial consequences can be disastrous for many households around the world. While one can imagine how the fear of making an expensive mistake may deter households from making otherwise sensible health care choices, there is almost no scientific evidence on the importance and joint role of medical and financial uncertainty. In this paper, we first provide theoretical insights based on simulation exercises and develop a novel measurement instrument for medical and cost uncertainty using health vignettes. Initial analyses from data collected using this instrument with low-income households in Pakistan reveal that on top of many biases, both medical as well as cost uncertainty in health care decisions exist and may deter sensible health investments. As our results indicate potentially large dividends to providing accurate information, we are currently running an extended vignette survey that includes an RCT component with interventions targeted at changing medical and cost uncertainty separately and jointly.
Histoire des entreprises et de la finance
Du 11/10/2023 de 16:00 à 17:00
R1-16
BITTMANN Simon ()
Financing Exploitation. Colonial Capitalism and the Indochina Rubber (1916-1939)
Economic History Seminar
Du 11/10/2023 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1.09
CASTILLO GARCíA César (The New School for Social Research & PSE)
How Was Neoliberal Hegemony Constructed? Policy Networks and Free-Market Institutions in Peru (1930-1990)
écrit avec César Castillo-García (The New School for Social Research & PSE) with Luan Sánchez-Pérez (Universidad del Pacífico)
This paper analyzes the existent bonds between Peruvian experts and the transnational neoliberal network of the Walter Lippmann Colloquium/Mont Pèlerin Society during 1930-1990. We rely upon qualitative sources (member directories, institutional affiliations, board memberships) to construct a non-exhaustive database of 388 actors belonging to 295 relevant institutions for the period under study. Then, we apply social network analysis techniques to explore and visualize the nexus between personalities and organizations that pushed the free-market agenda and reacted to profit cycles in Peru during different historical periods that we call waves of neoliberalization. Our results demonstrate an increase in the participation of domestic actors in the Peruvian neoliberal network. Hence, six Peruvian intellectuals played the role of brokers transmitting the neoliberal discourse among different institutional settings: Pedro Beltrán, Rómulo Ferrero, Jacobo Rey Elmore, Roberto Abusada, and Mario Vargas Llosa. Likewise, this paper shows the organizational structure transmitting free-market ideas in Peru was heterogeneous and included government agencies, business associations, high-ed institutions, the press, and the Catholic Church. These findings demonstrate that organized actions of intellectuals, technocrats, and politicians have made neoliberal legacies prevail in the Peruvian public sphere during the second half of 20th century.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 10/10/2023 de 17:00 à 18:00
PEREZ Lucas(PSE)
PEREZ Lucas(PSE)
Air Ball and Air Quality: Effects of Air Pollution over Performance under Pressure
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 10/10/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21
BéZY Thomas ()
The Incidence of Floods on Residential Real Estate Wealth
This paper sheds new light on exposure of real estate wealth to flood risks and examines the heterogeneous vulnerability to flooding. Using fine-grained data at the dwelling level in France, I distinguish the exposure of owner-occupied primary residences, rented homes, secondary homes, and vacant units, linking these properties to their owners' disposable incomes and housing wealth. I find that owner-occupied primary residences constitute only 40% of the exposed dwellings and secondary homes represent 20% of the properties at risk. Notably, secondary homes, which make up approximately 10% of the national housing market, are substantially over-represented. The value of at-risk dwellings owned by the top 10% equals the value of exposed dwellings owned by the bottom 45%. While floods can destroy 100% of a household's housing wealth in 30% of cases, most households are left with some remaining housing wealth. In 20% of instances, less than 20% of a household's total housing wealth is exposed to floods, underscoring significant disparities in the impact of natural disasters. I show that these findings have substantial impact on the incidence of three adaptation policies: home buy-back, flood protections and insurance against extreme weather events.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 09/10/2023 de 17:00 à 18:30
R1-09
COLLIARD Jean-Edouard (HEC)
Algorithmic Pricing and Liquidity in Securities Markets
We let "Algorithmic Market-Makers" (AMMs), using Q-learning algorithms, choose prices for a risky asset when their clients are privately informed about the asset payoff. We find that AMMs learn to cope with adverse selection and to update their prices after observing trades, as predicted by economic theory. However, in contrast to theory, AMMs charge a mark-up over the competitive price, which declines with the number of AMMs. Interestingly, markups tend to decrease with AMMs’ exposure to adverse selection. Accordingly, the sensitivity of quotes to trades is stronger than that predicted by theory and AMMs’ quotes become less competitive over time as asymmetric information declines.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 09/10/2023 de 16:15 à 17:30
CREST, room 3001
KWON Soonwoo (Brown University)
Testing Mechanisms
écrit avec Co-author: Jonathan Roth
Economists are often interested in the mechanisms by which a particular treatment affects an outcome. This paper develops tests for the "sharp null of full mediation" that the treatment D operates on the outcome Y only through a particular conjectured mechanism (or sets of mechanisms) M. A key observation is that if D is randomly assigned and has a monotone effect on M, then D is a valid instrumental variable for the LATE of M on Y. Existing tools for testing the validity of the LATE assumptions can thus be used to test the sharp null of full mediation when M and D are binary. We extend these results to settings where M is multi-valued or multi-dimensional. We further provide methods for lower-bounding the size of the alternative mechanisms when the sharp null is rejected. An advantage of our approach relative to existing tools for mediation analysis is that it does not require stringent assumptions about how M is assigned.
Paris Migration Economics Seminar
Du 09/10/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1.14
YARKIN Alexander (Brown University and LISER)
Learning from the Origins
How do political preferences and voting behaviors respond to information coming from abroad? Focusing on the international migration network, I document that opinion changes at the origins spill over to 1st- and 2nd-generation immigrants abroad. Local diasporas, social media, and family ties to the origins facilitate the transmission, while social integration at destination weakens it. Using the variation in the magnitude, timing, and type of origin-country exposure to the European Refugee Crisis of 2015, I show that salient events trigger learning from the origins. Welcoming asylum policies at the origins decrease opposition to non-Europeans and far-right voting abroad. Transitory refugee flows through the origins send abroad the backlash. Data from Google Trends and Facebook suggests elevated attention to events at the origins and communication with like-minded groups as mechanisms. Similar spillovers following the passage of same-sex marriage laws show the phenomenon generalizes beyond refugee attitudes.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 09/10/2023 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1-09
ENACHE Andreea (Stockholm School of Economics)
Congestion and Market Expansion: Timing of New Movie Releases in Paris Theaters
écrit avec Christophe Bellégo
We use a unique dataset on movie ticket sales in the French movie theaters to structurally estimate the seasonal underlying movie demand, while accounting for competition effects, weather shocks and seasonal sale promotions campaigns. We use a three-level nested logit that allows us to accurately estimate the underlying demand by movie genre and find a significant inter-movie genres competition. Moreover, we control for the congestion in movie theaters and highlight the existence of a trade-off between the demand expansion for movies and the business stealing effect between different movie genres due to the limited availability of screens in a movie theater. We use the estimated model to predict the movie revenues in various scenarios and we provide recommendations for optimal time release for movies. We also discuss the implications for the theater's strategy of movies portfolio diversification given the estimated substitution patterns between different genres.
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 06/10/2023 de 13:00 à 14:00
R1-09
WEBB Duncan (PSE)
Silence to Solidarity: Using Group Dynamics to Reduce Anti-Transgender Discrimination in India
Discrimination is often believed to be the result of deep-seated prejudice against a minority, or of beliefs that can only change upon the revelation of new information. But social context — in particular, how people behave differently in groups — may be a more important determinant of discrimination than traditional theories of discrimination suggest. This paper shows that involving majority-group members in a group discussion and hiring decision can sharply reduce hiring discrimination against a stigmatized minority. I focus on discrimination against the transgender community in India, a highly visible and economically vulnerable group. In a control condition, participants on average sacri?ce almost double their daily food expenditure to avoid selecting a transgender individual to deliver food to their home. But if they were earlier involved in a group discussion and collective hiring decision with two of their neighbours, they no longer discriminate at all, even when making subsequent choices in private. This effect is stronger than the effect of informing people about the legal rights of transgender people, and the reduction in discrimination partially persists until around 1 month later. The results appear to be driven by the emergence of a strong pro-trans norm in the groups, supported by pro-social reasons for selecting transgender workers that persuade others to discriminate less.
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 06/10/2023 de 12:00 à 13:00
Salle R1-14
MIETHE Jakob (LMU)
Lost in Information: National Implementation of Global Tax Agreements
écrit avec with Annette Alstadsæter, Elisa Casi-Eberhard, and Barbara Stage
We study how national implementation shapes the success of global tax agreements. In an unprecedented act of global coordination, countries have recently implemented a global multilateral network of automatic information exchange on financial account data, the Common Reporting Standard (CRS). Two parties, the sending, and the receiving countries need to be able to process information to make the CRS work. We build a novel database on local enforcement at the sending country level and on tax authority capacity at the receiving country level and study how they shape individual reactions to the CRS. Using micro-level data, we find a significant increase in bank transfers from tax havens to Norway from deposits owned through several layers of secrecy after the local introduction of the CRS, suggesting a possible legalization of previously unreported income and wealth abroad. Further analysis provide evidence that this takes place mainly through transfers from tax havens with a high level of local enforcement. Relying on macroeconomic data on cross-border bank deposits, we employ model averaging techniques to establish the most important characteristics of the receiving countries that make the CRS more effective. Our results suggest that receiving country information processing capabilities matter for the success of the CRS.
Du 05/10/2023 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
brown bag Travail et Économie Publique
Du 05/10/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
LEITE NEVES David (PSE)
The Firm as Tax Shelter: Using Business Resources for Final Consumption
This paper studies tax evasion due to consumption through the firm using a unique matching between administrative monthly micro-data of personal expenditures from an electronic invoice program in Portugal (e-Fatura) with social security registers. Drawing on this unique combination of data, we show that owner-managers shift by about 1/3 of their personal expenditures to firms and by about 1/4 of their household expenditures. The shift is driven by expenditures that lie on the border between business and personal consumption, notably expenditures in retail trade, hotels and restaurants and consultancy services. The use of business resources for final consumption is spread all over the income distribution, but it is particularly concentrated between the 5th-8th deciles. At the top income decile, consumption shifting amounts to 1/5 of household consumption. Back of the envelope computations suggest that the scale of government revenue losses due to consumption shifting amounts to 1% of the GDP.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 05/10/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1-15
KRANTON Rachel (PSE)
Social Connectedness and Information Markets
This paper investigates information quality in a simple model of socially- connected information markets. Suppliers’ payoffs derive from the fraction of consumers who see their stories. Consumers prefer to share and act only on high-quality informa- tion. Quality is endogenous and highest when social connectedness is neither too high nor too low. In highly-connected markets, low-quality stories are widely seen, giving suppliers little incentive to invest in quality. Increasing the volume of misinformation and increasing consumers’ cost of tuning in to suppliers’ broadcasts can each increase equilibrium information quality
Macro Workshop
Du 05/10/2023
R1-15
GETHIN Amory (PSE)
Distributional Growth Accounting: Education and the Reduction of Global Poverty, 1980-2001.
This article studies the role played by education in the decline of global poverty. In a companion paper, I estimate that the rise of government redistribution in the form of cash transfers, education, healthcare, and other public services accounts for 30% of worldwide poverty reduction since 1980 (Gethin, 2023). In this paper, I incorporate in this analysis the causal impact of schooling on pretax incomes, combining survey microdata covering 95% of the world’s population with a simple model of education and the wage structure. Private returns to schooling account for 50-60% of global economic growth, 60-70% of income gains among the world’s poorest 20% individuals, and 60-90% of the decline in global gender inequality since 1980. Combining direct redistribution and indirect investment benefits from education brings the total contribution of public policies to global poverty reduction to 50-80% or more.
Development Economics Seminar
Du 04/10/2023 de 16:00 à 18:30
R2.01
MACCHIAVELLO Rocco (LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS )
Mafia & Firms
Organized crime groups (OCGs) invest substantial sums in legal economic activities worldwide. Evidence on these investments is limited due to data scarcity. We introduce a model differentiating contaminated (OCG benefits from connecting legal firm to illegal activities increasing the risk of detection) from pure investment (legal firm and OCG's illegal activities remain separate). The model clarifies how to distinguish these motives in the data and delivers predictions which we test using new and highly confidential records from the Bank of Italy's Financial Intelligence Unit. Among infiltrated firms, we distinguish born-clean (that are later infiltrated) from born-infiltrated firms. In born-clean firms, infiltration is associated with a change in the sources of finance and increased liquidity, but no changes in operational outcomes, consistent with a pure investment motive. Born-infiltrated firms, instead, present traits consistent with the contaminated motive. As born-clean firms attract more OCG capital, our results suggest OCGs mainly use legal firms to invest in assets and possibly acquire valuable connections. These results challenge existing literature and policy narratives.
Economic History Seminar
Du 04/10/2023 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1.09
ALVAREZ-NOGAL Carlos(Carlos III)
CASTILLO-GARCIA César(The New School for Social Research & PSE)
Well-being and inequality in Spain during the seventeenth century: the bull of Crusade.
Spain experienced economic decline from the 1570s to 1650, recovering gradually thereafter and only reaching its early 1570s per capita income in the 1820s. How did economic decline impact on people’s perception of well-being and inequality? An unexplored source, the bulls of the Crusade can offer some answers to that question. The bull was an alms that, after 1574, was annually collected by the Spanish Monarchy in its territories giving some material and spiritual benefits to the population. An inexpensive but fixed price alms was massively bought by those aged 12 and above. The number of bulls sold relative to the relevant population provides a measure of spiritual comfort and, hence, of subjective well-being. A subjective inequality measure, the ratio of the eight reales bulls sold, intended for wealthy and high social status people, to the two reales bulls sold, intended for the common people, is also estimated. After collecting data from 1574 to 1700, the results suggest that subjective well-being deteriorated during the late sixteenth and early seventeenth century improving during its last third, while subjective inequality increased from 1600-1640 to fall in the third quarter of the century.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 03/10/2023 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13
TZINTZUN Iván (PSE)
Extreme temperatures during pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes: Evidence from 2007 to 2019 Brazilian national birth data
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 03/10/2023 de 14:45 à 16:15
Sciences Po, 28 rue des Saints-Pères, 75007 Paris (M° Saint Germain des Prés), SALLE H 405
EGGER Peter (ETHZ)
How Uncertainty shapes the Spatial Economy
écrit avec Katharina Erhardt, Davide Suverato
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium trade model in which the economy is a collection of
spatially separated competitive markets and agents (workers/consumers) choose optimally where
to locate and seeking for a job. Agents are heterogeneous based on (i) their pre-determined choice
of a region, sector and occupation and, also, on (ii) a non-insurable risk of aging, that implies
a lower option value when changing region and job characteristics.
By solving for the resulting dynamic spatial quantitative model with labor mobility under
uncertainty we show that rational households behave differently compared to a setting with
perfect foresight (e.g. Caliendo et al., 2019). In particular, adjustment to shocks slows down,
with more people being stuck in poorer regions and higher inequality across regions and sectors
in the long run. Furthermore, greater volatility in the productivity of a job (holding constant
the mean) results in a strong decline in the attractiveness of those jobs. Using detailed administrative
French data, we quantify the productivity-loss-equivalent of a rise in uncertainty and
we document that the impact on the individual lifetime welfare of an increase in uncertainty is
comparable to the one of a medium-large negative productivity shock.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 03/10/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21
THESMAR David (MIT)
The Effects of Mandatory Profit-Sharing on Workers and Firms: Evidence from France
Since 1967, all French firms with more than 100 employees are required to share a fraction of their excess-profits with their employees. Through this scheme, firms with excess-profits distribute on average 10.5% of their pre-tax income to workers. In 1990, the eligibility threshold was reduced to 50 employees. We exploit this regulatory change to identify the effects of mandated profit-sharing on firms and their employees. The cost of mandated profit-sharing for firms is evident in the significant bunching at the 100 employee threshold observed prior to the reform, which completely disappears post-reform. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, we find that, at the firm-level, mandated profit-sharing (a) increases labor share by 1.8 percentage points, (b) reduces the profit share by 1.4 percentage points, and (c) does not affect investment nor pro- ductivity. At the employee level, mandated profit-sharing increases low-skill workers’ total compensation and leaves high-skill workers total compensation unchanged. Over- all, mandated profit-sharing redistributes excess-profits to lower-skill workers in the firm, without generating significant distortions or productivity effects.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 02/10/2023 de 17:00 à 18:30
R1-09
KUVALEKAR Aditya (Essex)
Similarity of Information in Games (with Joyee Deb and Deepak Basak)
Régulation et Environnement
Du 02/10/2023 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1-09
LISKI Matti (Aalto University)
Pigouvian Income Taxation
How to fight grand externalities without hurting the poor? We develop a mechanism design model for externality problems with redistribution goals. The welfare-optimal mechanism ties together individuals' choices on incomes and the externality, leading to income-dependent Pigouvian taxes. A policy reflecting aversion to inequity can optimally set externality taxes that are increasing or decreasing in income, yet preserving the net progression: the two tax rates adjust in opposite directions to preserve the income tax progression. Whether the Pigouvian level is exceeded and whether progressivity or regressivity arises depends on welfare weights on burdens between and within income groups, behavioral responses to incentives on the externality, and earnings distortions due to redistribution. We conclude with applications to (i) cars and (ii) electricity using individual-level register data to illustrate the magnitude of the main mechanisms.