Calendrier du mois de mai 2022
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 31/05/2022 de 14:30 à 16:00
PSE, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R1-09
GANAPATI Sharat (Georgetown)
Urban Welfare: Tourism in Barcelona
écrit avec T. Allen, S. Fuchs, A. Graziano, R. Madera, and J. Montoriol-Garriga
Texte intégral
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 31/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2.01 (PSE)
FRéMEAUX Nicolas (LEMMA, Université Paris Panthéon-Assas)
A justice rendered by women for women? What judicial intervention does to gender wealth gap
écrit avec Sibylle Gollac
In order to understand the role of law and justice in the gender wealth gap in contemporary France, we study the influence of the judges' gender on decisions related to marital separations. We use a unique dataset of 3,000 judicial cases with detailed information about both the judges and the cases. We do not find any systematic effect of the judges' gender. The latter does not affect the decisions related to child physical custody and child support. However, female judges tend to grant a lower share of spousal compensatory benefits but when a benefit is granted, its value is larger than those granted by male judges. Moreover, we do not detect that decisions rendered by male or female judges are systematically closer to one of the litigants' claim. The limited effect of judicial intervention on gender inequality between separated men and women is not due to the discretion of judges but rather due to the litigants' claims and the importance that female as male judges give to these claims in their decision-making process. Information used and organizational constraints faced by judges as well as peer effects can explain these results, which question the hypothesis of a feminist justice or a justice “rendered by women for women”.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 30/05/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1.09 - Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
YANG Li (University of Michigan and BREAD)
A Theory of Ex Post Rationalization
écrit avec Mohammad Akbarpour, Scott Kominers, Paul Milgrom
Human beings attempt to rationalize their past choices, even those that were mistakes in hindsight. We propose a formal theory of this behavior. The theory predicts that agents commit the sunk-cost fallacy. Its model primitives are identified by choice behavior and it yields tractable comparative statics.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 30/05/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
STOULI Sami (Bristol)
Gaussian transforms modeling and the estimation of distributional regression functions
écrit avec Co-author: Richard Spady
We propose flexible Gaussian representations for conditional cumulative distribution functions and give a concave likelihood criterion for their estimation. Optimal representations satisfy the monotonicity property of conditional cumulative distribution functions, including in finite samples and under general misspecification. We use these representations to provide a unified framework for the flexible Maximum Likelihood estimation of conditional density, cumulative distribution, and quantile functions at parametric rate. Our formulation yields substantial simplifications and finite sample improvements over related methods. An empirical application to the gender wage gap in the United States illustrates our framework.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 30/05/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
LOPEZ Angel Luis (Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC))
Common Ownership and Technology Adoption
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 26/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
GüçERI Irem (Oxford)
ANNULE/CANCELLED
Development Economics Seminar
Du 25/05/2022 de 16:30 à 17:45
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan
MONEKE Niclas (Oxford University)
The Heterogeneous Effects of Rural Electrification: Evidence from Zambia
écrit avec with Torsten Figueiredo Walter)
Electrification is crucial for economic development. However, where and how it may have transformative effects remains unclear. In light of recent microeconomic evidence on electrification’s disappointing effects, we study the potential sources of heterogeneity underlying these results in the context of Zambia, where a large, country-wide rural electrification program is being rolled out. We develop a novel measure of electrification with high temporal and spatial coverage derived from administrative records on the universe of Zambian primary
schools and health centres. We can confirm, first, that hundreds of localities have gained access to the electric grid since 2006. Second, our best estimate of a local average treatment effect derived from accidentally electrified localities is indeed virtually zero across a wide range of outcomes. Third, exploiting two full rounds of the Zambian Population & Housing Census, we uncover two relevant sources of heterogeneity: variation in pre-existing locality size and productive capacity. Electrification’s effects are most pronounced in localities
with between 2,000 and 5,000 inhabitants, and any beneficial effects of electrification are concentrated on localities that have at least one non-residential building in commercial use before electrification, even
conditional on locality size. In line with classic theories of agglomeration, we conclude that indivisible investments, such as pre-existing productive building capacity, may determine if rural electrification will cause economic development.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 25/05/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
TELES Pedro (Catolica Lisboa)
Self Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations
Economic History Seminar
Du 25/05/2022 de 14:00 à 15:30
On Line
JUHASZ Reka (UBC)
Technology Adoption and Productivity Growth:Evidence from Industrialization in France
écrit avec Mara P. Squicciarini (Bocconi and CEPR), Nico Voigtländer (UCLA, NBER, and CEPR)
New technologies tend to be adopted slowly and – even after being adopted – take time to be reflected in higher aggregate productivity. One prominent explanation for these patterns is the need to reorganize production, which often goes hand-in-hand with major technological breakthroughs. We study a unique setting that allows us to examine the empirical relevance of this explanation: the adoption of mechanized cotton spinning during the First Industrial Revolution in France. The new technology required reorganizing production by moving workers from their homes to the newly-formed factories. Using a novel hand-collected plant-level dataset from French archival sources, we show that productivity growth in mechanized cotton spinning was driven by the disappearance
of plants in the lower tail – in contrast to other sectors that did not need to reorganize when new technologies were introduced. We provide evidence that this was driven by the need to learn about optimal ways of organizing production. This process of ‘trial and error’ led to initially low and widely dispersed productivity, and – in the subsequent decades – to high productivity growth as knowledge diffused through the economy and new entrants adopted improved methods of organizing production.
Virtual Development Economics Seminar
Du 24/05/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
On Line
LEON-CILIOTA Gianmarco ((U. Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona School of Economics (BSE), IPEG, BREAD and CEPR))
Promotions and Productivity: The Role of Meritocracy and Pay Progression in the Public Sector
écrit avec with Erika Deserranno and Philipp Kastrau.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 24/05/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13, Zoom link: https://zoom.us/j/94740575953
VERDINI Daniele (UCLouvain, FNRS)
Globalization and Urban-Rural Divide in France
Paris Migration and Demographic Economics Seminar (PMDES)
Du 24/05/2022 de 16:30 à 19:00
Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan
SANCHEZ ROMERO Miguel(Vienna Institute of Demography)
BOTEY Montserrat(Sciences Po)
Redistributive effects of pension reforms: Who are the winners and losers?
écrit avec avec Guillaume Chapelle (Maître de conférence à l'Université de Cergy-Pontoise/ LIEPP, Sciences Po Paris)
The dramatic rise in wealth inequalities has generated debates on the oppor- tunity to tax wealth (Piketty, 2014; Garbinti et al., 2017). Increasing housing prices are to a great extent driving these widening wealth disparities. This pa- per explores the potential redistributive impact of taxing imputed rents, usually exempted from income taxation. We estimate tax savings and their distribu- tion between households in France exploiting the fiscal simulator developed by Landais et al. (2011). We find that while net imputed rents represent 7% of national net income, their non-taxation is a hidden fiscal spending (i.e. tax expenditure) amounting up to 11 billion euros yearly. This shows non-taxation to be the largest public spending directed to home owners, benefiting mostly the oldest and wealthiest households. Substituting property tax with imputed rents taxation could favor the youngest and the poorest households, who went through a steady decline in their homeownership rate over the last decades.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 24/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.01 PSE
PAUL-VENTURINE Julia ()
Can central governments promote density ? Evidence from the removal of floor area ratio in France
In this paper, we study the impact of a national-level reform that abolished locally set floor area ratios (FAR) in France. FAR is a piece of regulation that local policy makers use to prevent urban densification. The goal of the reform was to foster the supply of housing projects in cities while reducing the consumption of agricultural land by densifying urban places. To identify its impact on the Paris metropolitan area, we use a difference-in-difference (DID) framework comparing housing blocks where a maximum FAR existed before the reform with the closest blocks where no FAR existed. We find that treated areas, in which FAR were removed, didn't experiment any change in their density and no particular dynamic in their price. This suggests that the suppression of FAR imposed by the central government didn't have any positive impact on the housing supply. Preliminary results on observed heights of new buildings suggest that local authorities might have compensated the disappearance of FAR using alternate tools that still were available as maximum heights.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 23/05/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R2.21 - Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
KONDOR Peter (LSE)
Cleansing by Tight Credit: Rational Cycles and Endogenous Lending Standards
écrit avec Maryam Farboodi
Endogenous cycles emerge through the two-way interaction between lending standards and production fundamentals. When lenders choose credit quantity over quality, the resulting lax lending standards lead to low interest rates and high output growth but the deterioration of future loan quality. When the quality is suciently low, lenders switch to tight standards, causing high credit spreads and low growth but a gradual improvement in the quality of loans. This eventually triggers a shift back to a boom with lax lending, and the cycle continues. As such, credit standards play a dual role.
If they help the economy through promoting loan quantity today, they hurt future loan quality, and vice-versa. Investors don't internalize either role, thus, the constraint ecient economy features both a static and a dynamic externality, and albeit often being cyclical, it di ers from the decentralized equilibrium.
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 23/05/2022 de 13:00 à 14:00
MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, Room Banquier: S03) 75013 Paris
NERI--LAINé Matteo (Paris Dauphine University - PSL)
Sovereign Gravity -- The Military Alliances’ Effect on trade and its implication in structural gravity
This paper tests and analyses the effect of military alliances on bilateral exports. Using CEPII’s and
Correlate of War’s country-level data from 1967 to 2012, we perform a gravity approach. Our baseline's
results show that alliances increase trade by 60%. We confirm the causality with an instrumental variable estimation. Thanks to the estimation of the differenced average treatment on the treated à la Couch and Placzek (2008), we show a stronger effect of 80% for the deepest alliances. Moreover, we determine this huge impact can be explained by alliances’ ability to create strong military cooperation. Therefore, they imply for exporting firms a decrease in their expropriation risk and a lower cost of information. In line with our empirical results, we formalize and include the military alliances in a generalizable theoretical structural gravity model. Performing a general equilibrium analysis, we demonstrate the trade liberalization enforced by military alliances leads to substantial welfare gains for signatories, but also losses for non-aligned countries.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 23/05/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
FRANçOIS Manon (PSE)
The complexity of multinational enterprises and tax avoidance
Does the complexity of multinationals' ownership structure serve tax avoidance? We use cross-country firm-level data to provide a description of the complexity determinants of ownership structure of multinational firms and show that affiliates belonging to more complex MNEs are more likely to bunch around zero profit, consistent with tax avoidance by multinational firms.
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 20/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2-01
DE GAUDEMARIS Louise (PSE)
Measuring psychological distress in Ghana: how to track variations over time
EPCI (Economie politique du changement institutionnel) Seminar
Du 20/05/2022 de 11:00 à 12:30
Salle 18, Maison des Sciences Économiques, 112 Bd de l'Hôpital, 75013 Paris
EL RAFHI Bilal (Université Paris 8 Vincennes-St Denis, LED)
Like father, like son? The intergenerational transmission of preferences for taxation
The literature abounds with studies highlighting the existence of strong inter generational correlations, some of which relate to economic preferences. This paper is the first to investigate empirically the intergenerational correlation of preferences for redistribution between parents and children. The main findings using the SOEP data suggest a substantial intergenerational transmission of preferences for taxation. In addition to the fact that the estimated correlations put parental preferences at the head of the determinants of individual attitudes towards taxation, our mediation analysis challenges the impact of some variables considered as key determinants in the literature. This study also shows that the absence of opinion on these taxation issues can be explained by the individual’s parents’ attitudes as well as by the individual’s level of education, gender and political orientation
PEPES (Paris Empirical Political Economics) Working Group
Du 19/05/2022 de 17:00 à 18:30
On line
XU Guo (U. Berkeley joint with UPF)
Strengthening State Capacity: Postal Reform and Innovation during the Gilded Age
écrit avec with Abhay Aneja (UC Berkeley)
We use newly digitized records from the U.S. Post Office to study how strengthening state capacity affects public service delivery and innovation in over 2,800 cities between 1875–1905. Exploiting the gradual expansion of a major civil service reform, cities with a reformed postal office experience fewer errors in delivery, lower unit costs and an increase in mail handled per worker. This improvement goes with greater information flow, as measured by increased volumes of mail and newspapers. We observe more joint patenting involving inventors and businesses from different cities, suggesting that a more effective postal service contributed to innovation and growth during the Gilded Age.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 19/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
ZIDAR Owen (Princeton)
America's Missing Entrepreneurs
écrit avec Raj Chetty, John Van Reenen, and Eric Zwick
Joint with Macro
We use de-identified tax returns to characterize entrepreneurship across the American population since the late 1990s. Our longitudinal data permit an analysis of which new firms end up being highly successful, allowing us to distinguish startups that are destined to remain as small businesses from star job creators. We develop a novel measure of the returns to founding owners using a high-dimensional matching strategy, which tracks total income in the decade following entrepreneurial entry relative to that for a similar matched worker.
In the first part of the paper, we document new facts on the lifecycle of star entrepreneurs, including their family backgrounds, where they grew up, and their labor market trajectories prior to entry. Star entrepreneurs are disproportionately white, male, and drawn from high-income families. Entrepreneurship pays at the median and mean for those who choose to enter, though under-represented groups (URGs) consistently earn lower returns than their over-represented counterparts. Higher variance in entrepreneurial returns comes primarily through the outside option in the right tail of the earnings distribution.
In the second part of the paper, we develop three research designs to evaluate the role of alternative mechanisms that might account for different entry rates and returns for URGs. First, using a sample of early employees at highly successful startups, we estimate a substantial causal effect of liquid wealth on subsequent entry. However, liquidity appears insufficient to close entry gaps. Second, using local shocks to labor demand early in a person's career, we estimate the causal effect of experience in entrepreneurial industries on subsequent entry. Finally, using a movers research design, we find that children exposed to more entrepreneurs while they are growing up are more likely to start businesses themselves.
We use these multiple research designs to decompose the reduced form effects. For example, the effect of labor market experience can be separated into a direct effect and an effect operating through accumulated savings. Our results support the class of explanations that highlight "pipeline" factors as the key supply-side constraints on the number of star URG entrepreneurs. Such factors limit the number of potential entrepreneurs who might be responsive to later-stage interventions. For example, policies that target the point of entry, such as liquidity support or tax incentives, are unlikely to close entry gaps and narrow return differences.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 19/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R1-09
ZIDAR Owen(Princeton)
VELDKAMP Laura(Columbia)
America's Missing Entrepreneurs
écrit avec Raj Chetty, John Van Reenen, and Eric Zwick
joint with Labor and Public Economics
We use de-identified tax returns to characterize entrepreneurship across the American population since the late 1990s. Our longitudinal data permit an analysis of which new firms end up being highly successful, allowing us to distinguish startups that are destined to remain as small businesses from star job creators. We develop a novel measure of the returns to founding owners using a high-dimensional matching strategy, which tracks total income in the decade following entrepreneurial entry relative to that for a similar matched worker.
In the first part of the paper, we document new facts on the lifecycle of star entrepreneurs, including their family backgrounds, where they grew up, and their labor market trajectories prior to entry. Star entrepreneurs are disproportionately white, male, and drawn from high-income families. Entrepreneurship pays at the median and mean for those who choose to enter, though under-represented groups (URGs) consistently earn lower returns than their over-represented counterparts. Higher variance in entrepreneurial returns comes primarily through the outside option in the right tail of the earnings distribution.
In the second part of the paper, we develop three research designs to evaluate the role of alternative mechanisms that might account for different entry rates and returns for URGs. First, using a sample of early employees at highly successful startups, we estimate a substantial causal effect of liquid wealth on subsequent entry. However, liquidity appears insufficient to close entry gaps. Second, using local shocks to labor demand early in a person's career, we estimate the causal effect of experience in entrepreneurial industries on subsequent entry. Finally, using a movers research design, we find that children exposed to more entrepreneurs while they are growing up are more likely to start businesses themselves.
We use these multiple research designs to decompose the reduced form effects. For example, the effect of labor market experience can be separated into a direct effect and an effect operating through accumulated savings. Our results support the class of explanations that highlight pipeline factors as the key supply-side constraints on the number of star URG entrepreneurs. Such factors limit the number of potential entrepreneurs who might be responsive to later-stage interventions. For example, policies that target the point of entry, such as liquidity support or tax incentives, are unlikely to close entry gaps and narrow return differences.
Behavior seminar
Du 19/05/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
Salle R2.01
BELLET Clément (Erasmus School of Economics, Rotterdam)
Perceived Inequality and Preferences for Redistribution Among High Earners: Do Reference Groups Matter?
Understanding attitudes towards inequality among the “working rich” matters for any policy aimed at increasing the level of redistribution in society. We investigate this question using a unique sample of nearly 1,000 graduates from a highly ranked MBA program and a representative sample of Americans. We first show that high-earning MBAs are far more likely to know their rank in the income distribution. We then explore whether and how comparisons with peers or others (i.e. reference groups) shape their preferences for redistribution. Asking them to rank within their family, colleagues or classmates leads to an average 18% drop in the income share allocated to the richest 1% but has no discernible effect on their taxation preferences. We discuss the respective contribution of the comparative and normative functions of reference groups as potential mechanisms.
Histoire des entreprises et de la finance
Du 18/05/2022 de 16:00 à 17:30
Salle R1.14, Campus Jourdan
CONDORELLI Stefano (Université de Berne)
Price momentum and analysis of sentiment through news (using Natural Language Processing): a new approach to compare booms and crashes in asset markets across centuries (18th-21st century)
Economic History Seminar
Du 18/05/2022 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan
MESPLE-SOMPS Sandrine (IRD, Paris-Dauphine-PSL University, CNRS, LEDa, DIAL.)
Decolonization of state capacity? Public revenue and expenditure from colonial times to present, evidence from former French colonies
écrit avec Cogneau Denis, PSE, IRD & EHESS -Dupraz Yannick, Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, AMSE- Knebelmann Justine, J-PAL, MIT
The ability of a government to raise taxes and the strategies deployed to do so are a core feature of state capacity. For this reason, the history of taxation is narrowly intertwined with that of state-building. Surprisingly, the capacity of states to provide public services is hardly ever considered an important dimension of state building. We question to what extent the dismantlement of the French empire in Africa that occurred between 1956 and 1962 through decolonization was a major overhaul of the state's identity and practices. Over a few months' time the legitimacy to raise tax revenue shifts from metropolitan France to newly formed independent governments that became autonomous in defining budgetary orientations. Little is known about how this in-depth political transition affected the level and composition of fiscal revenue and public expenditure, notably because of the scarcity of information on the public finances of African countries between independence and the 1980s. In this paper, we reconstruct the fiscal trajectories of eighteen former French colonies in Africa spanning years 1900-2018, linking colonial and post-colonial decades with an unprecedented level of detail on the composition of tax revenue. We also produce indicators on budgetary policies. We find that very few countries achieved significant progress in fiscal capacity between the end of the colonial period and today, if we set aside income drawn from mineral resources. This is not explained by a lasting collapse of fiscal capacity at the time of independence. On the other hand, at the time of independence, we observe new budgetary orientations, particularly a reinforcement of public spending in education. The structural adjustment programmes clearly stopped this dynamic. The orientations towards more education spending required by the objectives of sustainable development only allow for catching up with the levels already reached at the end of the 1970s.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 17/05/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13
ABOYA Nakita (PSE)
Fiscal policies, Inequality, and Poverty in Cameroon
Development Economics Seminar
Du 17/05/2022 de 16:30 à 17:45
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan
STARTZ Meredith (Dartmouth College)
Cutting out the middleman: The structure of chains of intermediation
écrit avec with Matthew Grant
Distribution of goods often involves chains of multiple intermediaries engaged in sequential buying and reselling. Why do such chains arise, and how will changes in their structure due to changes in policy or trade costs affect consumers? We show that internal economies of scale in trade costs naturally generate chains with multiple intermediaries, and that this suggests developing country markets are more likely to be served via long chains. Contrary to common wisdom, cutting middlemen out can, but does not necessarily, benefit consumers. Instead, there is a fundamental tradeoff between costs and entry that means even pure reductions in trade costs can have perverse effects. The proposed mechanism is simple, but can account for empirical patterns in wholesale firm size, prices and markups that we document using original survey data on imported consumer goods in Nigeria. We estimate a structural version of the model for distribution of Chinese-made apparel in Nigeria, and describe endogenous restructuring of chains and the resulting impacts on consumer welfare in response to counterfactual changes in regulation and e-commerce technologies. We find that cutting out middlemen has heterogeneous impacts across locations, but often harms more remote consumers.
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 17/05/2022 de 14:30 à 16:00
PSE, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
BLANCHARD Emily (Dartmouth)
ANNULE/CANCELLED
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 17/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2.01 PSE
BENVENISTE Stéphane (INED-AMSE)
Like Father, Like Child: Social Reproduction in the French Grandes Ecoles throughout the 20th Century
Educational systems expanded over the 20th century in developed countries, and
while most scholars found that it promoted social mobility, some argue that the top of
the social hierarchy remains shielded over generations. In France, the most prestigious
Grandes Ecoles are elite institutions for higher education. They constitute the main
pathway to top positions in the public and private sectors. The present work provides
the first results on intergenerational social reproduction in these schools over more than
a century. We construct an exhaustive nominative dataset of 224,264 graduate students
from ten of the leading Grandes Ecoles, spanning over five cohorts born between 1866
and 1995. We develop a new methodology within the literature using surnames to
track lineages and find that families from ancient aristocratic lineage, Parisians, as
well as descendants of graduates are highly over-represented in the top Grandes Ecoles,
throughout the 20th century. Across cohorts, children of Grandes Ecoles’ graduates are
72 to 154 times more likely to be admitted, and up to 450 times to the exact same
school than their father. This advantage appears remarkably stable for all cohorts
born since 1916 and persists across multiple generations, emphasizing the existence of
a “glass floor” for the French elites.
Regional and urban economics seminar
Du 16/05/2022 de 17:00 à 19:00
Online
LAFOURCADE Miren ()
Neighborhoods and Intergenerational Social Mobility
17:00 – 17:05 Welcome Address: Miren Lafourcade (University Paris-Saclay, CEPREMAP and PSE)
17:05 – 17:30 Leah Platt Boustan (Professor of Economics - Princeton University)
Title: “Streets of gold: The role of geography in immigrant assimilation in the US”
Abstract: The United States has absorbed two major waves of immigration: one in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, and one today. I will present new data documenting a common pattern of immigrant assimilation in both periods, whereby the children of immigrants completely converge with and even surpass the earnings of the children of the US-born. Location choice plays an important role: immigrants move to urban areas that offer opportunities for advancement for themselves and their children. Settling in an immigrant enclave can delay assimilation, but this effect is overwhelmed by the strong tendency of immigrants to move to highly mobile locations.
17:30 – 17:40 Interdisciplinary dialogue with the audience
Discussant/Panelist: Florian Mayneris (Université du Québec à Montréal)
17:40 – 18:05 Patrick Sharkey (William S Tod Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs, Princeton University School of Public and International Affairs)
Title: “The Growing Link Between Space and Inequality in the US”
Abstract: I argue that space is becoming an increasingly important dimension of inequality in the US. I will describe several trends and findings that have exacerbated spatial inequality, and present new evidence showing how the division of urban space affects the economic outcomes of children. The talk concludes with three approaches to addressing spatial inequality.
18:05 – 18:15 Interdisciplinary dialogue with the audience
Discussant/Panelist: Haley McAvay (University of York)
18:15 – 18:35 Michael Storper (Department of Geography & Environment - London School of Economics, UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs)
Title: “Deep roots and changing fortunes: the changing geography of intergenerational social mobility in the United States over the twentieth century”
Abstract: Intergenerational social mobility (ISM) – the rate at which children born into poverty climb the income ladder – varies considerably across neighborhoods and cities in the United States. Some formerly high opportunity regions are no longer so, while other regions display consistently low levels of opportunity across the century. The changing geography of employment restructures the landscape of social mobility, but factors associated with intraregional inequality and “deep roots” generate persistence. These two forces are most sharply evident in the sharp decline in ISM for persons who grew up in the Midwest in the late twentieth century, as high-income economic activity has shifted away from it, and the persistence of the South as a low-opportunity region even as new economic activity shifted toward it.
18:35 – 18:50 Interdisciplinary dialogue with the audience
Discussant/Panelist: Clara Martínez-Toledano (Imperial College Business School)
18:50 – 18:55 Concluding Address: Laurent Gobillon (Paris School of Economics)
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 16/05/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1.09 - Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
STRULOVICI Bruno (Northwestern University)
Can Society Function Without Ethical Agents? An Informational Perspective
In order to function, society relies on many facts that must be learned through intermediaries with special expertise or access to information. This paper considers whether society can learn about such facts when intermediaries are devoid of ethical motives and act sequentially. The answer depends on the severity of information attrition affecting the amount of discoverable evidence about each fact. Information attrition is nonexistent in fields based on reproducible scientific evidence but can affect the evidence in criminal and corruption investigations. Applications to institution enforcement, social cohesion, scientific progress, and historical revisionism are discussed.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 16/05/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
R1-14
MCCLOSKEY Adam (University of Colorado, Boulder )
Short and Simple Confidence Intervals when the Directions of Some Effects are Known
écrit avec Co-author: Philipp Ketz
We introduce adaptive confidence intervals on a parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters, such as coefficients on control variables, with known signs. Our confidence intervals are trivial to compute and can provide significant length reductions relative to standard ones when the nuisance parameters are small. At the same time, they entail minimal length increases at any parameter values. We apply our confidence intervals to the linear regression model, prove their uniform validity and illustrate their length properties in an empirical application to a factorial design field experiment and a Monte Carlo study calibrated to the empirical application.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 16/05/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
BOSETTI Valentina (Unibocconi)
Decarbonizing the economy, model projections and reality
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 13/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2-01
VERA Julieta (PSE)
Who does it take to raise a child?: Evidence from a parenting program in Cote d'Ivoire
écrit avec Jere Behrman, Pamela Jervis, Karen Macours and Charlotte Pelras
Du 13/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PELRAS CHARLOTTE Charlotte (PSE)
*
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 12/05/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
BRONER Fernando (CREI Barcelona)
Bilateral International Investments: The Big Sur?
Using country-to-country data, this paper documents a set of novel stylized facts about the rise of the South in global finance. The paper assembles comprehensive bilateral data on cross-border bank loans and deposits, portfolio investment in debt and equity, foreign direct investment, and international reserves. The main findings are that between 2001 and 2018 investments involving the South, and especially within the South, have grown faster than those within the North. By 2018, the South was involved in 34% of total international investments. The largest increases occurred in portfolio investment and international reserves, the smallest in banking. The growth of financial investments involving the South is often faster than that of GDP. These developments are observed across subregions of the South, beyond China and independently of offshore financial centers. The intensive margin contributed more than the extensive margin to the increasing weight of the South in international investments.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 12/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
KAPOR Adam (Princeton)
Interdependent Values in Matching Markets: Evidence from Medical Programs in Denmark
This paper studies interdependent values in a matching market and how market participants strategically adjust to this situation. We study these questions in the market for medical school programs in Denmark, which assigns students to programs based on a centralized assignment mechanism. Using administrative data on student preferences, college priorities, and student outcomes, as well as exploiting an information experiment, we present evidence that students and rival programs hold payoff relevant information that would, if known by the program, allow the program to admit students with lower program dropout rates. Building on these insights, we estimate an empirical model of this matching market that allows for heterogeneous program and student preferences as well as two sources of interdependent values: student self-selection and interdependent program values. Our findings suggest that both sources play a role and that programs benefit from learning information rival programs hold as well as learning about student preferences in identifying students with higher completion rates.
PEPES (Paris Empirical Political Economics) Working Group
Du 12/05/2022 de 12:30 à 14:00
Sciences Po, room H405
WIDMER Philine(PSE)
SALEM Ariane(University of Geneva)
PEPES Junior - En Route: The Colonial Origins of Francophone Africa's Emigration Patterns with Awa Ambra Seck
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 12/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.14, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
GHERSENGORIN Alexis (Oxford)
Personalized Pricing with Inequality Concerns
écrit avec Victor Augias (Sciences-Po) ; Daniel M.A. Barreto (Sciences-Po).
We analyze the redistributive consequences of a monopolist who can obtain additional information about consumers' tastes beyond the prior distribution, and thus implement personalized pricing. We study the problem of a social planner, who can commit to an information policy and has redistributive preferences. The latter is captured by a social welfare function that put higher weights on poorer consumers. We show that for sufficiently strong redistributive preferences, the social planner will sacrifice richer consumers' surplus and gives additional profits to the monopolist.
Behavior seminar
Du 12/05/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
Online
BONNET Celine (Toulouse School of Economics, INRAE)
Between- and within-household consumption of ultra-processed food in France
Ultra-processed food consumption has been recently associated with the prevalence of obesity and non-communicable chronic diseases such as some types of cancers, diabetes and heart diseases. However, ultra-processed food consumption is not so-well documented across individuals or across food product categories. In this paper, we construct a unique longitudinal dataset, between 2002 and 2015, of at-home food consumption of French households to which we merge information regarding nutritional values and degree of food processing. Over the period, we find increasing consumption patterns of ultra-processed products, yet still relatively low when compared to Anglo Saxon countries levels of consumption. French lower consumption levels are most likely a result of higher prices for ultra-processed products relatively to less-processed products, the reverse of Anglo saxon prices. We then develop a panel data econometric analysis to identify the determinants of ultra-processed food consumption exploiting the within- and between-household variations. We find that socio-economic demographics would explain more the between household variation that the within-household variation. In fact differences between households are due to obesity status, youth, poverty, rural, north and east location which are all associated with higher levels of ultra-processed consumption. Nonetheless, becoming old, obese, or moving does not have a strong impact in UP consumption. Some life events with impact in time constraint, such as having young children, return to labour activity, or becoming single, are associated higher UP consumption. Yet, the main driver for within-household UP consumption reduction are prices. These results suggest that policies aiming at decreasing UP consumption should , on the one hand, focus on specific population groups and, on the other hand, use price reductions as lever for within household change of consumption patterns.
Du 11/05/2022 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan
CONDORELLI Stefano (Université de Berne)
A social vs an insitutional history of the financial Revolution: the importance of financial experimentation (17th-18th century)
Economic History Seminar
Du 11/05/2022 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan
CONDORELLI Stefano (Université de Berne)
Une histoire sociale vs une histoire institutionnelle de la Révolution financière : l'importance de l'expérimentation financière (17e-18e siècle)
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 10/05/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13
REITZMANN Leo (PSE)
‘Bad’ Oil, ‘Worse’ Oil and Carbon Misallocation
Virtual Development Economics Seminar
Du 10/05/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
On line
BJöRKMAN NYQVIST Martina (Stockholm School of Economics & CEPR)
Community Health Provision at Scale: Evidence from a Randomized Trial in Uganda
écrit avec with Andrea Guariso, Jakob Svensson, and Phyllis Awor
Du 10/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.01 PSE
RICHARD Marion (PSE)
*
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Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 10/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2.01 PSE
CHAROUSSET Pauline (PSE)
How Do Elite Post-Secondary Programs Select their Students?
écrit avec Gabrielle Fack, Julien Grenet and Yinghua He
This paper uses data from the centralized system of college admissions in France to estimate selective programs' preferences over applicants. To assess how selective programs weigh each applicant's characteristic when making admissions decisions, we assume that they rank applicants based on a score value that depends linearly on their grades and demographic characteristics, among which gender, social background and geographical origin. Using a program-specific logistic lasso estimation, we find that selective programs give preferential treatment to geographically-close applicants. Applicants to selective programs located in their own high school or district are given an advantage that is equivalent to a 0.3 standard deviation increase in each of the applicant's grades, for the programs with the highest preference for geographically-close applicants. To assess how programs' preferences for applicants' demographic characteristics affect the diversity of their student body, we simulate the impact of a policy ban on demographic characteristics, and find that the ban only moderately affects the average composition of admitted students to selective programs, but can have substantial effects on the geographical composition of the student body for some types of programs.
Du 10/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.01 PSE
RICHARD Marion (PSE)
*
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 09/05/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R2.01 - Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
FRIEDMAN Evan (PSE)
Quantal Response Equilibrium with Symmetry: Representation and Applications
écrit avec Felix Mauersberger
We study an axiomatic variant of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) for normal form games that augments the regularity axioms (Goeree et al., 2005) with various forms of “symmetry” across players and actions. The model refines regular QRE, implies bounds on logit QRE, and is tractable in many applications. The main result is a representation theorem that characterizes the model’s set-valued predictions by taking unions and intersections of simple sets. We completely characterize the predictions for (almost) all 2 ? 2 games, a corollary of which is to show, in coordination games, which Nash equilibrium is selected by the principal branch of the logit correspondence. As applications, we consider three classic games: public goods provision with heterogenous costs of participation, jury voting with unanimity, and the infinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma. For each, we characterize all equilibria within a particular large class. An analysis of existing experimental data shows the potential, and limitations, of the model.
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 09/05/2022 de 13:00 à 14:00
MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle Banquier S03) 75013 Paris
BOIS Clémence (PES)
Trade, Reputation, and the Diesel Gate
écrit avec Pamina Koenig (PSE, Université de Rouen)
In September 2015 the US Environmental Protection Agency issued a notice which opened a scandal now know as the Dieselgate: the note shows that the German automaker Volkswagen cheated on the Clean Air Act by intentionally programming its diesel engine vehicles to reduce their emissions controls only during laboratory testing.
In this paper, we hypothesize that these revelations may have had an impact on consumers' perceptions of the quality of the German car firm, and potentially also of a broader group of goods associated with the country's manufacturing quality attributes. We use product-level bilateral trade data to estimate whether German exports of Diesel passenger cars were modified after September 2015. We rely on a difference-in-difference approach and compare the exports of Diesel engine vehicles to those of goods that were not affected by the scandal. We further analyze whether the effects vary according to the level of consumers information about the scandal in each country, proxied by their google searches relative to the event.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 09/05/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
CAMPIGLIO Emanuele (Universita' di Bologna)
Optimal transition to a low-carbon economy
The optimal transition to a low-carbon economy must account for adjustment costs in switching from dirty to clean capital, economic and climatic shocks, and clean technological progress. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with emissions abatement costs calibrated on a large energy modelling database and solved with recursive methods, we estimate a net premium of 17% on the optimal carbon price today relative to a ‘straw man’ model with perfect capital mobility, fixed abatement costs and no uncertainty. The optimal path involves rapid emissions reductions and a best estimate of US$2.6 trillion of cumulative disinvestment in dirty capital – ‘stranded assets’. Another reason to price carbon at a high level today is to avoid climate damages in the short to medium run. These are ignored if the planning problem is construed as one of meeting a temperature constraint at minimum discounted abatement cost, which typifies contemporary climate policy discussions.
Du 09/05/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 06/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2-01
CORDONNIER Victor (PSE)
Agricultural interventions and food security in Ethiopia: What is the role of adjusting livelihood strategies?
écrit avec Katia Covarrubias (FAO) and Ana Paula de la O Campos (FAO)
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 05/05/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R1-09
HAGEDORN Marcus (University of Oslo)
A Nominal Demand Augmented Phillips Curve
The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) explains inflation through current and future marginal costs and inflation expectations based on a time-dependent pricing model.
I show that state-dependent menu cost pricing models give rise to a nominal demand augmented Phillips curve (NDPC), which adds nominal demand as an additional explanatory variable of inflation.
I then estimate the NDPC using cross-sectional data for U.S. states. My estimates indicate that nominal demand is a significant determinant of inflation, that nominal demand is not a proxy for real marginal costs, and that nominal demand cannot be replaced with real demand. Instead, from an empirical NKPC perspective nominal demand maps into cost-push shocks. My findings on the role of nominal demand thus offer a new perspective on explaining inflation during several historical U.S. episodes and across countries. The conclusion offers some thoughts on policy implications.
PEPES (Paris Empirical Political Economics) Working Group
Du 05/05/2022 de 12:30 à 14:00
Sciences Po, Room H405
MARTINEZ LUIS (U. Chicago joint with UPF)
Bourbon Reforms and State Capacity in the Spanish Empire
écrit avec with Giorgio Chiovelli, Leopoldo Fergusson, Juan D Torres, and Felipe Valencia-Caicedo
We study the impact of large-scale administrative reform on state capacity in the Spanish empire in the Americas. During the late 18th century, the Spanish Crown entirely overhauled the provincial colonial government, introducing a new corps of Intendants to replace the existing body of local Crown representatives (Corregidores). Our empirical strategy leverages the staggered timing of this reform across different parts of the empire, extending from modern-day Mexico to Argentina, and yields three main findings. First, using granular administrative data from the network of royal treasuries, we show that the reform led to a sizable increase in public revenue (i.e. fiscal capacity). Second, the reform also led to a reduction in the incidence of acts of insurrection by the indigenous population, which had been harshly exploited by the corregidores (i.e., legal capacity). However, we show in third place that the reform also heightened tensions with the local creole elites, as reflected by naming patterns, and potentially contributed to the subsequent demise of the colonial system.
Development Economics Seminar
Du 04/05/2022 de 16:30 à 17:45
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan
DERKSEN Laura (University of Toronto)
Privacy at What Cost? Using Electronic Medical Records to Recover Lapsed Patients into HIV Care
écrit avec with Anita McGahan and Leandro Pongeluppe
We show that Malawian healthcare staff save lives by tracking down HIV patients lapsed from care – even against their wishes – using data made accessible with the implementation of an electronic medical records (EMR) system. HIV patients in Malawi receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), a highly effective treatment that also prevents transmission, for free at clinics. Yet patients frequently lapse from care, resulting in increased community transmission and unnecessary deaths. The introduction of EMR allowed health providers to manage patient data, trace lapsed patients, and encourage lapsed patients to reinitiate treatment. We implement an event study analysis using data from 106 clinics that adopted EMR between 2007 and 2019 and find that the introduction of EMR leads to an immediate increase in the number of patients actively in care and to a decline in patient deaths. After five years of implementation, facilities with EMR have approximately 34 percent more patients in care and 28 percent fewer patient deaths than facilities without EMR. These effects are concentrated among patients under 50, and are larger among young children. Effects are also concentrated among patients who do not wish to be traced; these patients are in fact more likely to lapse from care and require tracing. Robust to additional specifications and supported by interview findings, the results demonstrate that an initial preference for privacy gives way to patient reinstatement in care when the health consequences are critical.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 03/05/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13, Zoom link: https://zoom.us/j/94740575953
MEDELLIN Juan Camilo (PSE)
Firm size, informality and unemployment: The Colombian case.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 03/05/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.01 PSE
KERSTING Felix (Humboldt University Berlin)
Welfare Reform and Repression in an Autocracy: Bismarck and the Socialists
This paper studies the effect of a welfare reform, a repressive law and its interaction on the vote share for the opposition in an autocratic country in times of social unrest. I examine Bismarck’s policies of introducing social insurance and the anti-socialist law in late 19th century Germany. The socialist party, I find, increases its vote share in constituencies more affected by Bismarck’s policies. For identification, I exploit local and industry-specific variation in treatment intensity due to ex-ante existing local healthcare and detailed lists on forbidden socialist organizations. This variation allows me to use a dynamic difference-in-differences as well as a shift-share approach. As mechanisms, I highlight that the socialist party evaded the repression and dominated the narrative about the social reform. My results suggest that dominating the narrative is a crucial complementarity for the political success of social reforms.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 02/05/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
LEVONYAN Vardges (UZH)
BBC, Brexit, and Balanced Reporting
Media organizations can shape news via their choice of coverage and slant. We measure the aggregate slant of the BBC from 2014-18, benchmark it against UK newspapers of known political leaning, and show that it took a sharp turn to the right in the runup to the Brexit vote. We disaggregate this shift across topics and show that roughly three-quarters of the measured change was due to stories related to the European Union, that 90% of that change was due to increased coverage relative to topic-specific slant, and that the change was driven by crowding out of left-leaning topics. We show even stronger results on a Leave/Remain rather than Labour/Conservative scale. We measure the causal effect of this shift using two different datasets and empirical approaches and both show causal increases of exposure to BBC news on Brexit vote intentions/vote shares, with effects sufficiently large that the absence of a change in the BBC’s slant would have made the Brexit vote too close to call.