Calendrier du mois de mai 2023
Du 31/05/2023 de 12:00 à 13:30
annulé
ROBERTSON Charlotte (Harvard Business School)
*
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 30/05/2023 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13
STRICOT Maëlle (PSE)
Does news coverage of violence against women affect their judicial treatment?
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 30/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21
TARTOVA Desislava (PSE)
Teacher Value-Added in the Absence of Annual Test Scores: Utilising Teacher Networks
I develop a novel method for estimating teacher value added which controls for non-random student-teacher sorting without having to control for lagged grades in standardised tests. To do so, I exploit networks'' of teachers - teachers from the same subject who are observed in classrooms with a unique link'' teacher from another subject. I measure the relative value added of two teachers in a network as the difference between their classrooms' grades in a standardised exam, unexplained by student characteristics, correcting for the classrooms' grade differential in the subject of the link teacher. I show that the estimated teacher effects are unbiased under plausible assumptions that I confirm in the data. Using exhaustive French administrative data, I find that a 1 SD increase in teacher value added within school improves student scores by 0.17 SD in Math and 0.16 SD in French.
Du 29/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Annulé et reporté
MASTROBUONI Giovanni (Collegio Carlo Alberto)
TBA
PSE Internal Seminar
Du 26/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan
ASTIER Nicolas(PSE et Ecole des Ponts)
HERR Annika(Institute of Health Economics, Leibniz University Hannover)
On the use of significant digits to convey statistical precision - ASTIER
Most empirical estimates reported in economics are output from software routines. By default, these routines report a fixed number of decimal digits, typically three. We argue this practice represents a missed opportunity to convey statistical precision. We propose a statistical testing procedure that could be easily implemented to avoid both reporting too many digits that lack statistical significance and failing to report precisely estimated digits. Applying our methodology to all articles published in the American Economic Review between 2000 and 2022, we show that over 60% of printed digits for coefficient estimates are not statistically significant at standard levels.
Authors : Nicolas Astier and Frank Wolak
*****************
Ambulatory long-term care (LTC) aims to assist elderly individuals in their own homes. In this study, we analyze the causal impact of the recent increases in provider density due to increasing demand on the quality of ambulatory LTC. We employ data from publicly available transparency reports from 14,000 ambulatory care units in Germany between 2011 and 2019. Our instrumental variable approach exploits information on the nursing home market. Our primary findings indicate that an increase in provider density leads to a decrease in the quality of ambulatory LTC. A potential channel through which this effect may occur is a shortage of qualified nursing personnel. Our conclusion is that a trade-off exists between market entry, which enables better access to professional care, and higher quality. Therefore, we recommend further investment in skilled nursing personnel.
Authors : Annika Herr, Maximilian Lückemann and Olena Izhak
EPCI (Economie politique du changement institutionnel) Seminar
Du 26/05/2023 de 11:00 à 12:30
salle 116 à la MSE
HUBERMAN Michael (U.Montreal)
There Goes the Neighborhood: The Contrary Example of Social Housing in Red Vienna, 1923-1933
Between 1923 and 1933, the Social Democratic municipal council of Vienna constructed 335 apartment houses or community buildings (Gemeidenbauten). About 200,000 inhabitants, or 11 percent of the Vienna’s interwar population, occupied roughly 60,000 flats. My claim is that Red Vienna’s investment boom constituted a “big push.” A hub of activity, the Gemiendebauten gave rise to housing externalities. Business enterprises clustered in neighborhoods adjacent to the apartment blocks because they were a source of consumer demand and a readily available labor supply. Workers flocked to the buildings because of the material
and nonmaterial amenities they afforded, and because of their proximity to employment prospects and low priced goods. The quality of neighborhoods improved. The concentration of activity sustained a resilient economic model of growth and redistribution that was cut short by external events.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 25/05/2023 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-01
FERRANTE Francesco (Federal Reserve Board)
Devaluations, Deposit Dollarization and Household Heterogeneity
écrit avec Nils Gornemann
We study currency devaluation episodes in a small open economy heterogeneous households model with leverage-constrained banks. Our framework captures three stylized facts about liability dollarization in emerging economies: i) banks and firms borrow in foreign currency; ii) households save in dollar-denominated local bank deposits; and iii) such deposits are mainly held by wealthier households. The resulting currency mismatch in our economy causes an erosion of banks' net worth during a devaluation. We show that the subsequent macroeconomic decline is amplified by a strong reduction of consumption among poorer households in response to rising borrowing costs and falling labor income. Richer households are partially insured, as they are holding a larger share of their wealth in foreign currency denominated assets. We show that larger currency hedging by wealthier households deepens the recession and amplifies the negative implications for poorer agents. When deposit dollarization is high welfare gains can arise if monetary policy dampens a depreciation.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 25/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
HUBER Martin (University of Fribourg)
Testing the identification of causal effects in observational data
This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for and a suspected instrument. Under a causal structure commonly found in empirical applications, the testable conditional independence of the suspected instrument and the outcome given the treatment and the covariates has two implications. First, the instrument is valid, i.e. it does not directly affect the outcome (other than through the treatment) and is unconfounded conditional on the covariates. Second, the treatment is unconfounded conditional on the covariates such that the treatment effect is identified. We suggest tests of this conditional independence based on machine learning methods that account for covariates in a data-driven way and investigate their asymptotic behavior and finite sample performance in a simulation study. We also apply our testing approach to evaluating the impact of fertility on female labor supply when using the sibling sex ratio of the first two children as supposed instrument, which by and large points to a violation of our testable implication for the moderate set of socio-economic covariates considered.
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 25/05/2023 de 11:00 à 12:00
Salle R1.09
RIEDEL Nadine (University of Münster)
What Happens when you Tax the Rich? – Evidence from South Africa
écrit avec with Christopher Axelson, Antonia Hohmann, Jukka Pirttilä, Roxanne Raabe
In 2017, South Africa increased its top personal income tax (PIT) rate in an attempt to enhance tax revenue collection and reduce after-tax income inequality. Drawing on the population of personal income tax returns and a transparent empirical identification design, we show that treated taxpayers strongly lowered their reported taxable income in response to the tax reform, translating into an elasticity of taxable income of around 1. The size of the response is particularly pronounced at the very top of the income distribution and among the self-employed. We reject a significant increase in PIT tax revenue collection. The impact of the reform on after-tax income inequality hinges on whether observed income adjustments reflect real or reporting responses. Preliminary analyses show no response in treated taxpayers’ labor supply and job effort.
Du 25/05/2023
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-01
FERRANTE Francesco (Federal Reserve Board)
Development Economics Seminar
Du 24/05/2023 de 16:30 à 18:00
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan
BERGQUIST Lauren (Yale University)
Search Costs, Intermediation, and Trade: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Agricultural Markets (joint with Craig McIntosh and Meredith Startz)
Search costs may be a barrier to market integration in developing countries, harming both producers and consumers. We present evidence from the large-scale experimental rollout of a mobile phone-based marketplace intended to reduce search costs for agricultural commodities in Uganda. We find that market integration improves substantially: trade increases and excess price dispersion falls. This reflects price convergence across relative surplus and deficit markets, with no change on average. Using our experimental results to calibrate a trade model we can correct our reduced form estimates for the spillovers on the control, as well as simulating the impact that the intervention would have had if it were universally implemented. Our results suggest that the intervention reduced fixed trade costs by 10% and increased overall welfare in the study area by 1%. Contrary to the stated goals of the marketplace, but consistent with the existence of economies of scale in search or other trade costs, almost all activity on the platform is among larger traders, with very little use by smallholder farmers. Nevertheless, the benefits of improved arbitrage by traders appears to pass through to farmers in the form of higher revenues in surplus markets, as trader entry increases and measured trader profits decrease in response to falling search costs.
Histoire des entreprises et de la finance
Du 24/05/2023 de 16:00 à 17:00
R1-14
HOšMAN Mirek Tobiáš (Université Paris Cité)
The Most Important Research Project”: The World Bank and the Problem of Stabilizing International Commodity Prices in the 1960s
By the early 1960s, the commodity problem of international development became a well-known and eagerly debated issue. Countries of the Global South depended on exports of a limited range of primary commodities to earn foreign exchange revenues. These commodities often suffered from sluggish global demand growth and highly volatile prices. Exchange earnings of developing countries with export portfolios heavily concentrated in only a few of such commodities thus rose slowly and were highly unstable, which created pressures on the countries’ balance of payments. Counting in the often limited foreign exchange reserves, a commodity price fluctuation posed a significant challenge (and sometimes an outright disaster) for the financial position and investment plans of Global South countries.
The issue was not a new one. It was repeatedly debated at meetings of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and United Nations Conference for Trade and Development (UNCTAD). This paper tells the story of two large-scale studies prepared in the 1960s on the commodity prices stabilization, both of them having substantial consequences on global attempts to mitigate the issue. The first study was prepared by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund with the aim of examining the extent of the commodity issue, analyzing the behavior and structural changes of specific commodity markets, and discussing possible mechanisms for stabilizing international commodity prices, such as individual commodity agreements, export and import quotas, buffer stocks, or even political organization of the whole commodity trade. The second study was prepared by the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization, and the International Coffee Organization (ICO) to specifically look into coffee – the second most internationally traded commodity after petroleum.
Relying on previously untapped archival documents, this paper explores the evolving understanding of commodity markets and of different mechanisms for stabilizing commodity prices at the World Bank in the 1960s. It reconstructs debates among international organizations on regulating the global economy and demonstrates the relationship between economic research conducted by international organizations and its connection to global policy making processes
Behavior seminar
Du 24/05/2023 de 14:00 à 15:00
Online
BERNHEIM Douglas (Stanford University)
The Challenges of Behavioral Welfare Economics
In addition to offering many insights concerning public policy, Behavioral Economics challenges the premises of standard Welfare Economics. Behavioral Welfare Economics seeks to either modify the standard choice-based methods for measuring economic well-being so that they accommodate the issues that arise in Behavioral Economics, or to replace them with something else, such as hedonic measurement. This talk will provide a broad conceptual overview of the challenges that arise in Behavioral Welfare Economics, as well as the potential solutions that have emerged over the past twenty years, along with new developments.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 24/05/2023 de 14:00 à 15:15
Salle R2-21, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
BERNHEIM Douglas (Stanford)
*The Challenges of Behavioral Welfare Economics
ONLINE - joint with seminar Behaviour
Economic History Seminar
Du 24/05/2023 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan
RASTER Tom ()
Breaking the ice: The persistent effect of export pioneers on trade relationships
Trade theory holds that export pioneers - creators of new trade links - can substantially alter trade flows and lead exporters to discover their comparative advantage. I offer a first causal test of this theory, drawing on millions of captain voyages between the Baltic and North Sea between 1500 and 1855. For identification, I rely on drastic year-to-year variation in sea ice, which exogenously re-routes captains to towns they or their peers had not visited previously. I find that once (quasi-randomly) exposed to a new port, captains and their townspeople are very likely to return to this town and that trade flows and even the export mix are lastingly altered. This finding highlights the importance of pioneers and policies, such as export promotion, that foster them.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 23/05/2023 de 17:00 à 18:00
YEE Robert (Princeton)
Politics and Banking Regulation in Germany, 1900–1945
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 23/05/2023 de 14:30 à 16:00
PSE, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, Amphitheater
XU Daniel (Duke)
Regulating conglomerates in China : Evidence from an Energy Conservation Program
This seminar is part of the conference ‘PSE Global issues Conference “Re/De/Globalization”, 22-24 May 2023.
Texte intégral
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 23/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.01, Campus jourdan
NEDREGARD Oda (BI Norwegian Business School)
Speech is Silver, Silence is Gold: Trade-offs between local and collective representation
How does strong party discipline affect MPs’ willingness to represent local interests during times of distress? This paper uses parliamentary speech from Norway together with unique data on parliamentary attendance and politicians’ travels to study how local economic hardship, proxied by unemployment, shapes legislators’ representational efforts in national parliament. Contrary to what one would expect, I find that MPs deliver significantly fewer speeches and talk less about unemployment during economic downturns. Using word embeddings together with recently developed methods to identify choices in high-dimensional data, I show that, conditional on speaking, MPs tend to deviate more in floor speeches when their districts are in distress. Such deviations are favoured by local voters, but penalized financially by the party. These results demonstrate how it can be rational for party elites in well-functioning democracies to restrict MPs from representing local interests because they want to prevent deviations from the party line from compromising the party brand.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 22/05/2023 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
KELLNER Christian (University of Southampton)
*Timing decisions under model uncertainty
écrit avec Sarah Auster
We study the effect of ambiguity on timing decisions. An agent faces a stopping
problem with an uncertain stopping payoff and a stochastic deadline. The agent is
unsure about the correct model quantifying the uncertainty and seeks to maximize
her payoff guarantee over all plausible models. If model uncertainty only concerns the
deadline, the DM optimally stops as soon as this is optimal under one of the models.
If there is also uncertainty about the stopping payoff, the DM often has incentives to
continue at the point in time where she originally intends to stop. To prevent this from
happening, a forward-looking agent may then opt to stop prematurely.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 22/05/2023 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE, 48 boulevard Jourdan, R1-15
WüTHRICH Kaspar (UC San Diego)
(When) should you adjust inferences for multiple hypothesis testing?
écrit avec Co-authors: Davide Viviano and Paul Niehaus
Multiple hypothesis testing practices vary widely, without consensus on which are appropriate when. We provide an economic foundation for these practices. In studies of multiple interventions or sub-populations, adjustments may be appropriate depending on scale economies in the research production function, with control of classical notions of compound errors emerging in some but not all cases. Studies with multiple outcomes motivate testing using a single index, or adjusted tests of several indices when the intended audience is heterogeneous. Data on actual research costs in two applications suggest both that some adjustment is warranted and that standard procedures are overly conservative.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 22/05/2023 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
VONA Francesco (University of Milan)
*Climate Policy and the Carbon Content of Jobs
"Climate policies have heterogeneous labour
market impacts across sectors and occupations. However, there are no
clear indexes to measure the worker's exposure to ambitious
climate policy. We propose an occupation-based approach to measure the
worker's vulnerability to climate policies. Using rich
establishment-level data for France, we construct a time-varying measure
of the carbon content of jobs for more than 400 occupations
over the period 2003-2018. We show that carbon intensive occupations
exhibit a mild catching-up in terms of emissions per worker, are
geographically concentrated and highly exposed to other structural
transformations (automation and trade). We then estimate
the extent to which the impact of energy prices, a proxy of climate
policies, is mediated by the occupational carbon intensity using a
shift-share instrument. Both wages and employment losses are
significantly larger for carbon intensive occupations, also when
we carefully control for the exposure to other structural shocks.
Importantly, a sector-based approach to measure vulnerability to climate
policies gives less clear and robust results on policy effects than an
occupation-based ones. "
Du 18/05/2023 de 11:00 à 12:00
R2-21
ZIMMERMANN Florian (Briq and the University of Bonn)
*
Development Economics Seminar
Du 17/05/2023 de 16:30 à 18:00
R2.01
BALBONI Clare (MIT)
* Firm Adaptation in Production Networks: Evidence from Extreme Weather Events in Pakistan
écrit avec Johannes Boehm & Mazhar Waseem
This paper considers how far private adaptation may reduce future vulnerability to climate
change. Firms’ climate risk exposure depends not only on the location of production, but also
on network effects via the flood risk profile of suppliers and transportation links connecting
trading partners. We use data on monthly firm-to-firm transactions for the near-universe of
formal sector manufacturing firms in Pakistan and more than six billion observations from
commercial trucks traveling on the road network from 2011 to 2018 to study adaptation of
firms in production networks. We find that firms affected by major floods relocate to less flood-prone
areas, diversify their supplier base, and shift the composition of their suppliers towards
those located in less flood-prone regions and reached via less flood-prone roads. Identification
strategies that exploit both firm- and route-level flooding suggest that these responses reflect
forward-looking actions to reduce future vulnerability to flood risk rather than direct effects of
flooding, and are consistent with experience-based updating. We develop a quantitative spatial
model of endogenous production network formation among firms that learn about flood risk
from realized flood events. We estimate the model to quantify the importance of the adaptive
responses identified for the aggregate vulnerability of the economy to future flood risk. The
results suggest that the impacts of climate change will be mediated as firms learn from the
experience of increasingly frequent climate disasters
Economic History Seminar
Du 17/05/2023 de 12:00 à 13:30
SalleR1.09, Campus Jourdan
JURSA Michael (University of Vienna)
Growth, Prosperity and Inequality in a Pre-Modern Complex Agrarian Economy: the Case of Babylonia in the Age of Empires (6th Cent. BCE)"
This paper presents quantitative and qualitative economic data from Ancient Babylonia in the Iron Age, arguing that it is possible to describe macro-economic trends that led to economic growth, greater
(median) prosperity and, concomittantly, to greater inequality. This is possibly the earliest test case for studying the nexus between these phenomena based on statistically (more or less) sound reasoning.
Behavior seminar
Du 17/05/2023 de 11:00 à 12:00
R2-21
FLETCHER Jason (University of Wisconsin–Madison)
Early Life Conditions and Old Age Mortality
This presentation will summarize ongoing work examining impacts of early life environments in the early 20th Century in the US and associated effects on longevity for these cohorts using newly released linked data between the 1940 Complete Count Census and Death Records. Specific examples include in utero exposure to pollution, natural disasters, and clean water.
Special Seminar
Du 16/05/2023 de 14:00 à 17:00
R2-01
Economic History Seminar
Du 16/05/2023 de 14:00 à 17:00
PSE-ENS Jourdan. 58 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris :Auditorium
The two most influential books in economic history of the new millennium, Ken Pomeranz’ The Great Divergence, and Thomas Piketty Capital in the 21st century, offer two complementary views: the former puts the accent on areas, regions, eventually national differentiation over time, in terms of growth and despite initially quite similar structures and institutions. The latter insists on social inequalities within countries, which are then investigated in their historical and comparative perspective.
For the first time, these two authors will be gathered in a round table; the aim is precisely to discuss the interplay between their perspectives, in both analytical and historical empirical terms. Did the great divergence modify social inequalities in the concerned, and other areas? And viceversa, how were social inequalities influenced by the great divergence? And, even more broadly, how do we investigate similar interplays over a longer span of time (in particular in the 20th century) and in other areas (for example Africa).
Piketty’s latest book, A brief history of equality (2022) offers a first attempt to answer these (and other questions). This round table, part of the debates organized by the François Simiand Center of Economic and Social History at the Paris School of Economics and the EHESS, will start from this synthesis to discuss further integrations and developments.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 16/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan
YANG Li (University of Michigan and BREAD)
The long-run political effects of refugee shock: Evidence from post-WWII Germany
Given the exciting emerging literature on long-run impact of massive forced (im)migration on economic growth and education, the impact of forced migration on people’s political attitude towards to immigrants remains largely unexplored. We contribute to the literature by exploring the persistent impact of one of the largest displacements in human history: the eight million ethnic Germans were expelled from their domiciles in Eastern Europe and transferred to West Germany. Using both district and municipality level data, we identified significant positive impact of forced migration on today’s extreme voting and anti immigrant/refugees sentiment. Our results are significant though various robustness check. Furthermore, using a unique data set from SOEP (Social and Economic Panel of Germany), we are able to for the first time explore in detail the impact channels of the force migration. Two main findings are in order. First, the second generation of forced migrants (about 17% of the total adult population) are more likely to be anti-immigrant/refugees, this is opposite to the first generation of forced migrants. Second, overall, we find positive but not significant effect of forced migration on extreme voting and anti-immigrant/refugees sentiments of the local German (who is not first or second generation of forced migrants). However, people from the district with high unemployment rate of the forced migrants in 1950, are significantly more likely to vote for Afd and have anti-immigrant/refugees sentiments. Additionally, we also provide several piece of evidence supporting the contact hypothesis. We find in the district with high share of forced migrant tenants, people are less likely to vote for Afd.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 15/05/2023 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
MARIOTTI Thomas (TSE)
*Keeping the Agents in the Dark: Private Disclosures in Competing Mechanisms
écrit avec Andrea Attar, Eloisa Campioni, and Alessandro Pavan
We study the design of market information in games in which several principals contract with several privately informed agents. We investigate a new dimension of these games, namely, the possibility for the principals to asymmetrically inform the agents about how their mechanisms respond to their messages. We document two effects of such private disclosures. First, they raise the principals' individual payoff guarantees, protecting them against their competitors' threats. Second, by enlarging the set of incentive-compatible correlation patterns between the principals' decisions and the agents' types, they can be used to support equilibrium outcomes and payoffs that cannot be supported in their absence, no matter how rich the message spaces are allowed to be. These results challenge the folk theorems à la Yamashita (2010) and the canonicity of the universal mechanisms of Epstein and Peters (1999), calling for a novel approach to the analysis of these games. The one proposed here retains various elements of standard mechanism design theory while accommodating for competition in mechanisms and private disclosures.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 15/05/2023 de 16:00 à 17:15
CREST, room 3001
NOACK Claudia (Oxford)
Flexible Covariate Adjustments in Regression Discontinuity Designs
Empirical regression discontinuity (RD) studies often use covariates to increase the precision of their estimates. In this paper, we propose a novel class of estimators that use such covariate information more efficiently than the linear adjustment estimators that are currently used widely in practice. Our approach can accommodate a possibly large number of either discrete or continuous covariates. It involves running a standard RD analysis with an appropriately modified outcome variable, which takes the form of the difference between the original outcome and a function of the covariates. We characterize the function that leads to the estimator with the smallest asymptotic variance, and show how it can be estimated via modern machine learning, nonparametric regression, or classical parametric methods. The resulting estimator is easy to implement, as tuning parameters can be chosen as in a conventional RD analysis. An extensive simulation study illustrates the performance of our approach.
Du 15/05/2023 de 13:00 à 14:00
Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle 116
Paris Migration Economics Seminar
Du 15/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.14, Campus Jourdan
FELFE Christina (U. Würzburg)
On the formation of ingroup bias: The role of ethnic diversity and cultural distance
Régulation et Environnement
Du 15/05/2023 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
ELLIOTT Robert (Burmingham)
*“Centralising the enforcement of environmental regulations: Using machine learning to aid policy evaluation in China”
écrit avec Matt Cole, Bowen Lu, TuanVan Vu and Zongbo Shi
To overcome key challenges in environmental policy evaluation we use machine
learning based weather normalisation techniques to strip out the effect of weather
on air pollution estimates. Combined with Augmented Synthetic Control Methods
(ASCM) we provide a causal estimate of the impact of China’s decision to centralise
environmental policy enforcement. Focusing on Hebei province we find that the
recently introduced Central Environmental Inspection Policy led to a short term
reduction in PM2.5 and SO2 immediately after the inspection. However, within 3
months of the inspection team leaving, pollution levels had returned to previous levels.
Comparisons with Difference-in-Difference estimations show the importance of both
weather normalising and using an ASCM approach, particularly in the absence of
parallel pre-trends.
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 12/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
HéLIE Julia (PSE)
A tree for a vote: Electoral Incentives and Deforestation Cycles in Indonesia
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 12/05/2023 de 12:00 à 13:00
Salle R1.13
VICARD Vincent (CEPII)
The instruments of profit shifting
écrit avec Kévin Parra-Ramirez
The relevance of tax avoidance at the global level has been convincingly documented by the recent literature. How firms avoid tax - the quantitative relevance of different instruments of profit shifting - is however still unclear. Several papers have provided direct evidence and quantification for the use of different instruments of profit shifting separately and for different countries, providing conflicting conclusions. In this paper we use firm level data to assess the quantitative importance of the three main instruments of profit shifting by multinationals -- the manipulation of transfer prices in trade in goods, the location of intangibles and export of services from tax havens and the strategic location of intra-group debt -- for a single high tax country, France. We further compare these estimates based on direct evidence to estimates of the amount of missing profits in France based on the location of multinationals' profits (FDI income), to get a complete picture of the impact of profit shifting through the lens of balance of payments data.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 11/05/2023 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
ANNICCHIARICO Barbara (University of Rome Tor Vergata)
Climate Policies, Macroprudential Regulation, and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles
We compare the performance of a carbon tax and a cap-and-trade scheme in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that includes an environmental externality and agency problems associated with financial intermediation. Heterogeneous polluting firms purchase capital by combining their resources with loans from banks and are hit by idiosyncratic shocks that can lead them to default. We find that financial market distortions strongly affect the performance of climate policy throughout the business cycle. Welfare cost of business cycles are substantially lower under a cap-and-trade system than under a carbon tax if financial frictions are stringent, firm leverage is high, and agents are sufficiently risk-averse.
The difference in welfare costs shrinks significantly in the presence of simple macroprudential policy rules, which reduce financial market distortions. These policies can go a long way in smoothing business cycle fluctuations and aligning the performance of price and quantity pollution policies, reducing the uncertainty inherent to the government's chosen climate policy tool.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 11/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
BüTIKOFER Aline (NHH)
Collective Climate Action: Air Pollution and Child Outcomes
This paper examines the long-term impacts of early childhood pollution exposure by exploiting the Air Convention (Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution) as a natural experiment using Norwegian administrative data. We use a difference-in-differences design to analyze the outcomes between cohorts born in municipalities before and after significant improvements in acid exposure relative to those same cohorts born in municipalities with no improvements. We find that a higher pollution level is associated with lower academic performance and earnings at age 30. The effects are mainly driven by individuals from municipalities with initial exposure above certain thresholds. The novel Difference-in-Differences movers’ design provides new evidence on age-specific estimates of the pollution-human capital relationship.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 11/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1-14, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
COUTINHO Rafaël (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco)
*Infinitely repeated cheap-talk: From information to influence
écrit avec Paulo Melo-Filho
We solve an infinitely repeated version of Crawford and Sobel (1982) Strategic information transmission model. We find that repeated interaction allows for perfect information transmission for patient players, in the spirit of folk theorems. For impatient players, however, we also find repeated partition equilibria that are more informative than in the static game. Additionally, if the decision maker offers a biased policy, the partition equilibrium becomes even more informative. For small policy bias, more information is Pareto improving, whereas for large bias only the sender benefits. This suggests that, through repeated interaction, the sender can use his superior information to obtain a favorable policy. Applying this model to lobbying shows that interest groups can influence policy makers without monetary contributions. Plus, the influence can have positive or negative welfare impacts, depending on the level of capture.
Development Economics Seminar
Du 10/05/2023 de 16:30 à 18:00
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan
BANCALARI Antonella (Institute for Fiscal Studies / University College London)
"Public Service Delivery and Free Riding: Experimental Evidence from India"
écrit avec Alex Armand, Britta Augsburg and Maitreesh Ghatak
This paper provides novel evidence on the mechanisms driving the combination of poor-quality public services and high prevalence of non-payment (free riding) in low- and middle-income countries. We implement a field experiment in the slums of two major Indian cities and in the context of a fee-funded public service provided by community toilets. Collecting original surveys, behavioral and objective measurements, we show that an exogenous boost in the maintenance quality of the service improves delivery and reduces free riding in a static and dynamic way, but excludes a share of residents from using the service. Providers react strategically to external rewards by shifting their efforts towards monitoring activities. Excluded users are forced to dispose human waste in common-property, generating large health externalities. Residents demand more public intervention in the service provision.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 10/05/2023 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R1-14, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
LORIS André(PSE)
YANGSIYU Lu(PSE)
"Green finance and deforestation reduction in Brazil: a PVAR analysis of the Amazon Fund"
Yangsiyu
Abstract:
Whether regulation is good or bad for growth is a long-standing question in economics. In this paper, we study the impact of an environmental regulation on industrial firms’ productivity in China, examining not only firms in the highly-polluting industries but also those that are less polluting but still regulated “cleaner” firms. We show that doing so allows us to capture the net impact of environmental regulation on economic activity. Using a heterogeneous difference-in-differences approach, we find that the productivity of "cleaner" firms increases by 4%, while there is no effect on productivity for highly polluting firms. Firm exit, output effect, and process and practice innovations are the primary drivers of these productivity impacts, and the mechanisms differ between private firms and state-owned enterprises.
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Loris
Abstract:
The Amazon rainforest is emitting more carbon dioxide than it can absorb due to deforestation since 2021, leading to significant impacts on global warming. The loss of biodiversity due to land use change in the Amazon biome is also a major issue. Legal Amazon is an administrative area in Brazil that encompasses 64% of the Amazon biome and nine federal states. The Amazon Fund is the main international climate finance vehicle that operates in Legal Amazon, but its disbursements have decreased significantly in recent years due to disagreements between donors and the Brazilian government. This paper aims to assess the impact of the Amazon Fund's projects on reducing deforestation and other factors such as national environmental agency sanctions and agricultural production. By using satellite observations and microeconomic data, a panel dataset has been constructed to analyze the evolution of various environmental features, climate finance, regulation, and production from 2002 to 2020 across 760 municipalities in Legal Amazonia. A Panel Vector AutoRegression (PVAR) is used to model a stylized economic system in which variables can affect each other at different lags. The study's main findings suggest that the Amazon Fund's disbursements significantly reduce deforestation rates, with state-managed projects proving more effective than those managed by municipalities or universities. The most efficient projects involve land use planning, which includes the development and the protection of local autochthonous communities. Overall, the study highlights that the Amazon Fund's operates with a very low abatement cost (under $1 per ton of CO2).
Economic History Seminar
Du 10/05/2023 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan
DE LA VAISSIèRE Etienne (EHESS)
Zones monétaires, États et grand commerce caravanier : soie, argent et fourrures dans l’Asie du Haut Moyen-Âge
Depuis les travaux pionniers de Maurice Lombard à l'EHESS il y a 60 ans, les découvertes des corpus d’archives centre-asiatiques sont venues bouleverser nos connaissances sur le grand commerce caravanier, complétant et modifiant les riches conclusions qu’il avait tirées des seules sources arabes. Le grand commerce musulman et avant lui la « route de la soie » peuvent maintenant être traités dans une perspective qui permet d'aborder les ressorts économiques de ces échanges. Elle les place au point de rencontre de plusieurs zones monétaires, la soie chinoise, l’argent iranien et les fourrures du nord. Le commerce s’encastre et se désencastre. Il s’efface en partie, selon une périodisation précise, devant le tribut et l’action des Etats.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 09/05/2023 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13
ROUX Baptiste (PSE)
Get a Job, or Hit the Books? The Role of In-work Benefits on Youth Education Decisions in France
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 09/05/2023 de 14:30 à 16:00
PSE, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-01
SFORZA Alessandro (U. Bologna)
Credit shocks and firms’ organization
écrit avec E. Acabbi
What happens to firms' organizational structure when they are hit by a negative credit shock? By matching employer-employee data with firm loans and bank balance sheets, we study firms' reactions to a credit shock–the global financial crisis—using a combination of event study design and instrumental variable. We evaluate the impact of a credit shortage on the organization of labor within the firm: when hit by a credit supply shock, firms reduce employment of team leaders more than lower-skilled production workers, while no adjustment is found at the top of the organizational hierarchy. We show that working capital impacts the re-organization of the firms' labor structure via the financing of machines: firms that invested in machines before the financial crisis are more exposed to the credit shock and re-organize by reducing employment of workers that are complementary with machines. The results provide novel evidence of heterogenous complementarities between working capital and skills along the hierarchy of the firm.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 09/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2-21
RIBERTH Jonatan (Stockholm University)
Medical scandals and vaccine hesitancy
In this paper we consider the effects on vaccine hesitancy and health care utilization from an unusual medical scandal. Following the 2009–2010 swine flu pandemic, a small number of individuals developed narcolepsy, a severe neurological disease, as a result of vaccination against the swine flu. We use new individual level data on covid and swine flu vaccinations to measure vaccine hesitancy among the affected individuals. We find a lower covid vaccine uptake among individuals that are exposed to the individuals that developed narcolepsy. These effects are large. Family members of the affected individuals have a 10 percentage point lower covid vaccine uptake. We conclude that previous health scandals can have a lasting impact on future uptake of vaccines which in turn bears relevance for how fast vaccines should be rolled out.
Du 05/05/2023 de 13:00 à 13:30
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 05/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
DIAZ Oscar Mauricio(PSE)
MONTOYA María(PSE)
The Consequences of Integration in Schools: Evidence from Colombia
Du 02/05/2023 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 02/05/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan
SCHÜTZ Rafael ()
Does it Take a Stick to Eat a Carrot? Estimating the Animal Welfare Impacts of Food Consumption and Pigouvian Pricing
Combining 35 years of household expenditure surveys and aggregate food supply data from the United Kingdom, we compute the animal welfare footprint of consumers' food purchases. Focusing on the extensive margin, we consider three indicators of animal welfare: (1) meat and fish purchase quantities; (2) the number of slaughtered animals and caught fish; (3) the second indicator, weighted by species-specific neuron counts. Throughout the whole time frame (1985 to 2019), there is a large dispersion in animal welfare footprints across individuals. We fit a demand system to simulate the effects of two Pigouvian pricing interventions on aggregate animal welfare and greenhouse gas emissions: carbon pricing of food and an animal welfare levy as envisaged by the German government. Both interventions are predicted to reduce emissions and substantially improve aggregate animal welfare.