Calendrier du 05 mars 2019
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 05/03/2019 de 17:00 à 18:00
GHOSH Rajarshi (ESSEC)
Uncertainty and Decision Making over Time: An Alternative Approach to study Procrastination
I consider an agent that has the possibility of finishing a one-stage task over a discrete time interval, while at every point in time he is confronted with an outside option. The one-stage task has an uncertain cost of completion. I assume that the agent knows the distribution of the outside options, but only learns the value of each outside option after its realization. Therefore, the agent is faced with the difficulty of finding the optimal timing of when to exert effort in order to finish the task, while also being uncertain about how many trials he will need to complete it. I consider families of decision rules where the agent sets thresholds, such that for all realizations of the outside option below the threshold the agent chooses to try to finish the task. From the optimal solution it follows that a fully rational agent sets thresholds that are a continuous, convex and increasing function of time, where the threshold at the last period is equal to the expected value of the task. The optimal solution therefore shows that a certain degree of delay is optimal, caused by the decreasing option value of waiting over time. The paper continues with a hypothetical analysis of the conditions under which agents depart from rationality by analyzing the effects of various biases and forms of bounded rationality. These results shed light on novel mechanisms that cause procrastination.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 05/03/2019 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
MEHMOOD Sultan (PSL)
The Dictator, the Imam and the Judge: Tracing the impact of religion on the courts
How does religion impact the courts? In this paper, we document a substantial impact of religious leaders on judicial decision making in Pakistan. Utilizing a unique dataset on the holy Muslims shrines across Pakistan, we show that districts where historically the shrine density was high, a military coup in 1999 induced a large decline in judicial independence and quality of judicial decisions. We present evidence consistent with the mechanism that increased political power of religious leaders allowed them to influence the courts. The analysis of the type of cases driving the results show that more favourable rulings for the government in land expropriation and human rights cases explain these results. We also show a judicial selection reform that changed the appointment procedure to select judges from presidential appointment to selection by a judicial commission consisting of peer judges mitigates the effect of historical shrine density on judicial outcomes.