Calendrier du 05 mai 2022
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 05/05/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R1-09
HAGEDORN Marcus (University of Oslo)
A Nominal Demand Augmented Phillips Curve
The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) explains inflation through current and future marginal costs and inflation expectations based on a time-dependent pricing model.
I show that state-dependent menu cost pricing models give rise to a nominal demand augmented Phillips curve (NDPC), which adds nominal demand as an additional explanatory variable of inflation.
I then estimate the NDPC using cross-sectional data for U.S. states. My estimates indicate that nominal demand is a significant determinant of inflation, that nominal demand is not a proxy for real marginal costs, and that nominal demand cannot be replaced with real demand. Instead, from an empirical NKPC perspective nominal demand maps into cost-push shocks. My findings on the role of nominal demand thus offer a new perspective on explaining inflation during several historical U.S. episodes and across countries. The conclusion offers some thoughts on policy implications.
PEPES (Paris Empirical Political Economics) Working Group
Du 05/05/2022 de 12:30 à 14:00
Sciences Po, Room H405
MARTINEZ LUIS (U. Chicago joint with UPF)
Bourbon Reforms and State Capacity in the Spanish Empire
écrit avec with Giorgio Chiovelli, Leopoldo Fergusson, Juan D Torres, and Felipe Valencia-Caicedo
We study the impact of large-scale administrative reform on state capacity in the Spanish empire in the Americas. During the late 18th century, the Spanish Crown entirely overhauled the provincial colonial government, introducing a new corps of Intendants to replace the existing body of local Crown representatives (Corregidores). Our empirical strategy leverages the staggered timing of this reform across different parts of the empire, extending from modern-day Mexico to Argentina, and yields three main findings. First, using granular administrative data from the network of royal treasuries, we show that the reform led to a sizable increase in public revenue (i.e. fiscal capacity). Second, the reform also led to a reduction in the incidence of acts of insurrection by the indigenous population, which had been harshly exploited by the corregidores (i.e., legal capacity). However, we show in third place that the reform also heightened tensions with the local creole elites, as reflected by naming patterns, and potentially contributed to the subsequent demise of the colonial system.