Calendrier du 06 décembre 2018
Du 06/12/2018 de 15:45 à 17:00
PSE - 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 06/12/2018 de 15:45 à 17:00
PSE - 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
GIOVANNI Ricco (Warwick)
A Model of the Fed’s View on Inflation
écrit avec Thomas Hasenzagl, Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin,
Texte intégral
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 06/12/2018 de 12:30 à 13:45
SARSONS Heather (University of Toronto)
Interpreting Signals in the Labor Market: Evidence from Medical Referrals
This paper provides evidence that a person’s gender influences the way others interpret
information about his or her ability and documents the implications for gender
inequality in labor markets. Using data on physicians’ referrals to surgical specialists,
I find that the referring physician views patient outcomes differently depending on
the performing surgeon’s gender. Physicians become more pessimistic about a female
surgeon’s ability than a male’s after a patient death, indicated by a sharper drop in
referrals to the female surgeon. However, physicians become more optimistic about a
male surgeon’s ability after a good patient outcome, indicated by a larger increase in
the number of referrals the male surgeon receives. After a bad experience with one female
surgeon, physicians also become less likely to refer to new female surgeons in the
same specialty. There are no such spillovers to other men after a bad experience with
one male surgeon. Consistent with learning models, physicians’ reactions to events
are strongest when they are beginning to refer to a surgeon. However, the empirical
patterns are only consistent with Bayesian learning if physicians do not have rational
expectations about the true distribution of surgeon ability.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 06/12/2018 de 12:30 à 13:30
salle R2-01, campus Jourdan - 48 bd Jourdan, 75014 Paris
LAMBERT-MOGILIANSKY Ariane (PSE)
Phishing for (quantum-like) Phools: Theory and evidence.
écrit avec V. I. Danilov (Russian Academy of Sciences), A. Calmettes (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna) and H. Gonay (GetQuanty)
The presentation will be based on two articles:
1. Targeting in quantum persuasion problems JME (2018) joint with V.I Danilov
Abstract: In this paper we investigate the potential for persuasion arising from the quantum indeterminacy of a decision-maker's beliefs, a feature that has been proposed as a formal expression of well-known cognitive limitations. We focus on a situation where an agent called Sender only has few opportunities to influence the decision-maker called Receiver. We do not address the full persuasion problem but restrict attention to a simpler one that we call targeting, i.e. inducing a specific belief state. The analysis is developed within the frame of a n-dimensional Hilbert space model. We find that when the prior is known, Sender can induce a targeted belief with a probability of at least 1/n when using two sequential measurements. This figure climbs to 1/2 when both the target and the belief are known pure states. A main insight from the analysis is that a well-designed strategy of distraction can be used as a first step to confuse Receiver. We thus find that distraction rather than the provision of relevant arguments is an effective means to achieve persuasion. We provide an example from political decision-making.
2. The power of distraction: An experimental test of quantum persuasion (2018) joint with A. Calmettes, H. Gonay forthcoming in LNCS Springer.
Abstract: Quantum-like decision theory is by now a well-developed field. We here test the predictions of an application of this approach to persuasion as developed by Danilov and Lambert-Mogiliansky in (Danilov and Lambert-Mogiliansky 2018). One remarkable result entails that in contrast to Bayesian predictions, distraction rather than relevant information has a powerful potential to influence decision-making. We conducted an experiment in the context of donations to NGOs active in the protection of endangered species.We first tested the quantum incompatibility of two perspectives 'trust' and 'urgency' in a separate experiment. We next recruited 1371 respondents and divided them into three groups: a control group, a first treatment group and the main treatment group. Our main result is that 'distracting' information significantly affected decision-making: it induced a switch in respondents' choice as to which project to support compared with the control group. The first treatment group which was provided with compatible information exhibited no difference compared with the control group. Population variables play no role suggesting that quantum-like indeterminacy may indeed be a basic regularity of the mind. We thus find support for the thesis that the manipulability of people's decision-making is linked to the quantum indeterminacy of their subjective representations (mental pictures) of the choice alternatives.