Calendrier du 06 juin 2019
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 06/06/2019 de 15:45 à 17:00
PSE - 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
WAUGH Michael (New York University, Stern School of Business)
Quantifying the Losses from International Trade
écrit avec Spencer G. Lyon New York University
Did trade with China harm the US economy in the 2000s? A popular narrative suggests so—that the rapid rise in Chinese import penetration lead to an expanding trade deficit and negative impacts on wages and employment within narrowly defined labor markets. We provide an alternative interpretation of this evidence by developing a dynamic, standard incomplete market model with Ricardian trade and frictional labor markets and calibrated to match local-labor-market evidence. Despite being consistent with the evidence of Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013), a rising trade exposure induces a boom: a increase in GDP and employment, a modest increase in consumption, and an improving trade deficit. Much heterogeneity in the gains from trade underlays the aggregate effects; however, very few actually lose from trade.
Texte intégral
brown bag Travail et Économie Publique
Du 06/06/2019 de 12:30 à 13:30
SMAGGHUE Gabriel (UC3M)
Chinese Competition, Inequality and Collective Wage Agreement: Evidence from France
We show that there exists substantial heterogeneity across occupations on the negative effect of Chinese competition. A one standard deviation increase in Chinese competition reduces total earnings over the period 1997-2015 by 24% of 1997 earnings for managers and engineers, 18% for mid-level occupation workers and only 11% for production workers. The larger earning decline suffered by high skilled workers mostly reflects a larger drop in their hourly wage (the impact of China on hours worked is comparable across occupations). These results suggest the presence of downward wage rigidities mediating trade adjustments. We confirm this mechanism using industry-variation on minimum wage agreements. We find that in more regulated industries, the impact of the China shock is more concentrated on skilled workers. Overall, this evidence show that labor market institutions can shape the link between trade and inequalities.
Behavior seminar
Du 06/06/2019 de 11:00 à 12:00
salle R2-21, campus Jourdan - 75014 Paris
FLEURBAEY Marc (PSE)
Rationality under risk and uncertainty
What is rational to do for a decision-maker who is not able to identify states of the world
or final consequences, and is not able to assign probabilities to all the relevant events? A set of
dominance conditions deriving from stochastic dominance, formulated in a model in which the objects
of preferences are act-event pairs, implies expected utility and, in a variant of Savage's theorem, the
use of a well-defined probability measure compatible with the decision-maker's beliefs. As in Skiadas
(1997b), the model is flexible enough to incorporate feelings such as ambiguity aversion in the evaluation
of consequences. However, there is a sense in which ambiguity aversion is acceptable for individuals
but appears unreasonable (which is not the same as irrational) for policy-makers.