Calendrier du mois de septembre 2024
| Programme de la semaine précédente | Programme de la semaine | Programme de la semaine suivante | |
| (du 2024-05-06 au 2024-05-13) | (du 2024-05-13 au 2024-05-19) | (du 2024-05-19 au 2024-05-26) |
Semaine du 2024-05-13 au 2024-05-19 |
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 17/05/2024 de 13:00 à 14:00
R2-21
REUTZEL Fabian (PSE)
Inequality of Opportunity and Access to Internet: Evidence from India
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 17/05/2024 de 12:00 à 13:00
Salle R1-14
PARADISI Matteo (EIEF)
Audit Rule Disclosure and Tax Compliance
écrit avec with Enrico Di Gregorio, Matteo Paradisi and Elia Sartori
We show that tax authorities can stimulate tax compliance by strategically releasing audit-relevant information. We focus on audit policies that disclose to taxpayers that audit risk discretely drops above a threshold determined by their predicted revenues. In a theoretical framework, we derive conditions for the existence of improvements over flat undisclosed audit rules, and we build a test for such improvements that relies on a change in the probability jump at the threshold. Our empirical analysis relies on the Sector Studies, an Italian policy with a disclosed threshold-based design. We leverage more than 26 million Sector Study files submitted between 2007 and 2016. First, we show that taxpayers bunch at the threshold to a great extent, and that this behavior is related to evasion proxies, availability of evasion technologies, and tax incentives. Then, we exploit a staggered Sector Studies reform that widens the initial audit risk discontinuity. In line with our theory, taxpayers who benefit from audit exemptions above the threshold reduce their relative compliance, while those below the threshold improve it. However, mean reported profits increase by 16.2% in treated sectors over six years, suggesting – in light of our test – that a disclosed rule performs better than an undisclosed one.
Behavior Working Group
Du 17/05/2024 de 11:00 à 12:00
MSE salle 115
KLOPFENSTEIN Aurélien ()
Cognitive Barriers to Impact Investing
Sustainable investing has been gaining traction as a means to speed up the environmental transition. Recent theoretical work highlights that a sustainable investor looking to maximize their impact should focus not just on their own stocks' emissions, but should also internalize the whole market's emissions – following a broad mandate. Sustainable investors should therefore coordinate with other fellow sustainable investors, as well as with the market as a whole. The goal of this project is to explore behavioral barriers to broad-mandate investing. In a first experiment, we find that some market structures make broad-mandate investing very counterintuitive for investors, irrespective of their preferences. Further experiments are planned in order to identify the precise cognitive mechanism at play
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 16/05/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R2-21
ISPHORDING Ingo (IZA)
Feedback, Overconfidence and Job Search Behavior
Job seekers face uncertainty about their abilities, and whether these match with job requirements. Such uncertainty may result in sub-optimal job search outcomes and job matches. We conduct a field experiment among job seekers in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Participants underwent a skill assessment and were asked about their willingness to pay (WTP) for information about their relative performance on a test of general intelligence. WTP is positive for about 80 percent of the population, and is associated with gender and personality. Feedback provision leads individuals to update their beliefs which only persists for individuals with low WTP. We provide evidence that suggests imperfect recall as potential mechanism for the lack of persistence. Feedback increases job search intensity but relatively less for initially overconfident individuals and those with negative or zero WTP. This results in lower realized wages for these groups. The heterogeneity in belief updating, recall and job search behavior is consistent with some overconfident job seekers being unable to forget information and, thus, to maintain motivated beliefs, but being sophisticated about this inability to forget.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 16/05/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1-14
BLUMENTHAL Benjamin (ETH Zurich)
Informational Lobbying and Implementation Standards
Policymakers are often uncertain about the right course of action. To inform their decisions, policymakers might rely on information provided by interest groups (IGs). Given that their interests are often misaligned, IGs might under-provide information to policymakers. This paper explores the possibility for policymakers of committing to implementation standards prior to IGs' lobbying, to induce more information transmission. I show that setting implementation standards ex-ante can benefit policymakers, despite possible ex-post inefficiencies, by inducing informational lobbying in cases in which IGs would not have lobbied with implementation standards set ex-post. I discuss implications of these results for constitutional design, legislative politics, and bureaucratic politics.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 16/05/2024
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle
GUVENEN Fatih (University of Minnesota)
International Macroeconomics Chair Lecture
Development Economics Seminar
Du 15/05/2024 de 16:30 à 18:00
R2.01
MOBARAK Musfiq (Yale University)
Remittance Frictions and Seasonal Poverty
écrit avec ,Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Corey Vernot , Arjun Kharel
Seasonal migration is a common strategy to mitigate rural seasonal deprivation, but migrants need to remit money back during the lean season to family
members facing food shortages. We observe counterintuitively low remittances
in rural Nepal during periods of seasonal hunger, and migrants return with remittances later during harvest when food is relatively abundant. To indirectly
overcome this apparent constraint in remittance timing, we provide a $90 consumption loan to randomly selected rural households during the pre-harvest
lean season. Loan-recipient households increase pre-harvest investments in fertilizer and time spent working on their own farm, smooth consumption, and
save more of their migration income to bring it back home. Food security, subjective well-being, rice harvest and revenues improve. 98% of beneficiaries repay
the loan with the increased harvest-period remittance. In a two-period model of
household decision-making, we show that remittance frictions – a market failure
– are necessary to qualitatively match our experimental results.
Histoire des entreprises et de la finance
Du 15/05/2024 de 16:00 à 17:30
R2.20
RIEDER Kilian (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, CEPR & SUERF)
Income Shocks, Strategic Default and Financial Stability: Evidence from the 1920s
The widespread U.S. bank failures between 1921 and 1929 are conventionally attributed to asset-side losses resulting from banks' exposure to bad agricultural debts. Exploiting a new annual database on farm real estate transfers at the county-level, we provide evidence for a complementary funding channel to bank exits during the 1920s. We find that deposit withdrawals from banks are highly correlated with bank suspensions, even after directly controlling for the asset-side impact of farm distress. Building on a simple theoretical framework, we empirically link deposit withdrawals to the agricultural income shock following 1920, farmers' expectations about future returns, and their decision to strategically default on mortgages.
Economic History Seminar
Du 15/05/2024 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1.09
LAMOUROUX Christian (EHESS)
Histoire économique et données en miettes — comment écrire l'histoire économique de la Chine des Song (960-1279) ?
Comment écrire une histoire économique sans archives ? Comment évaluer des volumes de production ou de consommation à partir de chiffres parfois nombreux mais disparates, recensés dans des régions différentes et dans des conditions souvent imprécises, voire douteuses ? Comment comparer des prix quand les monnaies diffèrent d’une région à l’autre, en incluant des monnaies « privées », circulant sur les marchés et plus ou moins tolérées par les autorités locales ? Bref, qu’est-ce qu’une histoire économique sans quantification fiable ? C’est à ce défi qu’est confronté l’historien de la Chine impériale au tournant du premier et du second millénaires, alors que les textes et l’archéologie attestent que l’empire des Song connaissait un essor sans précédent de l’économie marchande, soutenue par un développement des instruments financiers dont le premier papier-monnaie émis à partir de 1024. Le présent exposé cherchera à montrer que l’interprétation des données disponibles, y compris chiffrées, permet cependant de mettre en évidence la cohérence des mécanismes qui permit aux différents échelons de l’État dynastique de diversifier leurs finances tout en faisant de la Chine un des grands carrefours des échanges asiatiques.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 14/05/2024 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-14
REUTZEL Fabian (PSE)
Income Opportunities across the Lifecycle: Evidence from Swedish Admin Data
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 14/05/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21
BERLAND Ondine (Paris Saclay Applied Economics, Paris Saclay University and INRAE)
Households' Food Carbon Footprint
Global food systems are a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, yet strategies to mitigate food-related emissions receive low public acceptance. To better understand this gap, this study pioneers a comprehensive analysis of household-level food carbon footprints using a representative panel survey for France from 2017-2019. Using machine learning techniques to match food purchases and environmental data, I unveil significant emission disparities, with a notable portion of these differences attributable to unobserved heterogeneity. By segmenting households into quartiles based on their current emission levels, I estimate a structural demand model that reveals distinct profiles in consumption behavior and price sensitivity, particularly contrasting low and high-emission households. These findings underscore the need to consider households' heterogeneous reactions to price changes when designing climate-related food policies.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 13/05/2024 de 17:00 à 18:30
R1-09
HAUSER Daniel (Aalto)
Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification
écrit avec Aislinn Bohren
We link two approaches to biased belief formation: non-Bayesian updating rules and model misspecification. Each approach has advantages: updating rules transparently capture the underlying bias and are identifiable from belief data; misspecified models are `complete' and amenable to general analysis. We show that misspecified models can be decomposed into an updating rule and forecast of anticipated future beliefs. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for an updating rule and belief forecast to have a misspecified model representation, show the representation is unique, and construct it. This highlights the belief restrictions implicit in the misspecified model approach. Finally, we explore two ways to select belief forecasts---introspection-proof and naive consistent---and derive when a representation of each exists.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 13/05/2024 de 16:15 à 17:30
CREST, room 3001
SOKULLU Senay (University of Bristol)
Identification and Estimation of Demand Models with Endogenous Product Entry and Exit
écrit avec Co-authors: Victor Aguirregabiria and Alessandro Iaria
This paper deals with the endogeneity of firms’ entry and exit decisions in demand estimation. Product entry decisions lack a single crossing property in terms of demand unobservables, which causes the inconsistency of conventional methods dealing with selection. We present a novel and straightforward two-step approach to estimate demand while addressing endogenous product entry. In the first step, our method estimates a finite mixture model of product entry accommodating latent market types. In the second step, it estimates demand controlling for the propensity scores of all latent market types. We apply this approach to data from the airline industry.
Texte intégral
Paris Migration Economics Seminar
Du 13/05/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1-14
RUYSSEN Ilse (Ghent University)
Irrigation as mitigator for migratory aspirations following drought
écrit avec Alix Debray, Lucile Dehouck, Katrin Millock
This article aims to contribute to the ongoing debate on the causal relationship between climate and migration, which has remained inconclusive and often fails to consider alternative adaptive mechanisms. Specifically, we investigate the effect of drought on aspirations to migrate in and out of 11 West African countries, controlling for irrigation. Our analysis uses cross-country comparable Gallup World Poll surveys combined with fine-grained geo-local information on irrigation coverage as well as drought occurrence and intensity. Our preliminary findings confirm the potential of irrigation to diminish the negative effect of drought on migration aspirations. However, further robustness checks and estimations on different samples will allow determining whether this correlation would encourage individuals to continue investing in their local communities or rather enable them to fulfil their migration aspirations. Overall, the article highlights the potential of alternative adaptation mechanisms in shaping migration patterns and emphasizes the need for a more nuanced understanding of the climate-migration nexus
Régulation et Environnement
Du 13/05/2024 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1-09
BRETSCHGER Lucas (ETH Zurich)
Green Road is Open: Economic Pathway with a Carbon Price Escalator
The paper develops the concept of "Economic Pathways" (EPs), which char-
acterizes theory-based scenarios for an economy that strives for decarbonization
by the middle of the century. The theoretical framework derives closed-form an-
alytical solutions for consumption, innovation, emissions, and population. The
EPs di§er in the stringency of assumed policies and associated income and emis-
sion development. Unlike the well-known "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways",
they allow the inclusion of important causalities between the economy and the
environment and considerably narrow down the scope of likely future develop-
ments. The quantitative part serves to illustrate the long-term consequences of
climate policy. I show that deep decarbonization only moderately delays eco-
nomic development, but requires increasing escalation of the carbon price. The
paper argues that the adoption of more stringent climate policies becomes more
likely as the phase-out of fossil fuels increases. The "Green Road" is not only
feasible but also attractive and realistic.