Calendrier du mois de septembre 2024
| Programme de la semaine précédente | Programme de la semaine | Programme de la semaine suivante | |
| (du 2024-05-13 au 2024-05-20) | (du 2024-05-20 au 2024-05-26) | (du 2024-05-26 au 2024-06-02) |
Semaine du 2024-05-20 au 2024-05-26 |
Du 24/05/2024 de 13:00 à 14:00
R1-15
DIAZ Oscar Mauricio (PSE)
*
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 24/05/2024 de 12:45 à 13:45
R1-15
MEDELLIN Juan Camilo (PSE)
Firm size, liquidity and optimal heterogeneous hedging
In this paper we depict the market imperfections and policy distortions that limit the development and sophistication of the FX hedging market in an Emerging Market such as Colombia. We find that: i) the market of FX hedging presents lack of liquidity related to the financial frictions faced by banks; which limits entry of small firms and the extent of large firms' hedges. ii) Policy interventions that aim at protecting the economy against exchange rate movements lower the incentives of small firms to protect themselves through the financial sector.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 23/05/2024 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R1-13
LUETTICKE Ralph (University of Tübingen)
HANK's Response to Aggregate Uncertainty in an Estimated Business Cycle Model
This paper studies a HANK model with agents who respond to both idiosyncratic and aggregate uncertainty. Since aggregate uncertainty is modeled as ambiguity, it affects both the steady state and the linearized dynamics, allowing for fast computation and estimation with linear methods. The estimated model jointly fits cyclical variation in US macro aggregates and asset prices. In the presence of portfolio frictions, aggregate uncertainty shocks are a powerful driver of the business cycle, more so than idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks. Their effect is much stronger than in a representative agent model: portfolio substitution by capital owners helps fit investment and return dynamics.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 23/05/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-13
DIEGERT Paul (Duke University)
The Role of Skills and Sorting in Explaining Wage Inequality
A large literature argues that technological change since the 1980s altered the demand for workers’ skills, increasing wage inequality and polarization. By estimating a model of occupational choice using panel data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), I find that changes in the supply of workers’ skills were also major driving factors in increasing inequality and polarization. Specifically, I find that (1) as tasks in high-skill jobs have become increasingly complex, the distribution of workers’ ability to perform those tasks has become more dispersed, (2) workers’ ability to perform low-skill work tasks has become more homogenous, and (3) workers have increasingly sorted into occupations by skill level, even if this does not maximize their income. These results suggest that skill formation has been a key channel through which long run changes in the nature of work have affected wage inequality. Finally, to obtain my estimates I prove a new identification result in a multi-dimensional potential outcome model and show how to robustly estimate it semiparametrically adapting results from mixture models.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 23/05/2024 de 12:30 à 13:45
R1-09
MARIOTTI Thomas (TSE)
The war of attrition under uncertainty: Theory and robust testable implications
We study the war of attrition with symmetric information when players’ payoffs depend on a homogeneous linear diffusion. We first show that a player’s mixed Markov strategy can be represented by an intensity measure over the state space along with a subset of the state space over which the player concedes with probability 1. We then show that, if players are asymmetric, then, in all mixed-strategy Markov-perfect equilibria, these intensity measures must be discrete, and characterize any such equilibrium through a variational system for the players’ value functions. We illustrate these findings by revisiting the standard model of exit in a duopoly under uncertainty and construct a mixed-strategy Markov-perfect equilibrium in which attrition takes place on path despite firms having different liquidation values. We show that firms’ stock prices comove negatively over the attrition zone and exhibit patterns documented by technical analysis
Behavior seminar
Du 23/05/2024 de 11:00 à 12:00
R1-13
DIECIDUE Enrico (Insead)
Why Do People Discount? The Role of Impatience and Future Uncertainty
Despite the intuition that risk preferences affect intertemporal choice because the future is uncertain, time discounting is commonly regarded as a reflection of impatience. Our experimental data show that approximately 43% of the observed time discounting can be explained by an aversion against future uncertainty rather than impatience, even when controlling for utility curvature. Future uncertainty receives disproportional weight because subjects engage in subproportional probability weighting, a behavioral regularity that does not feature in the standard risk framework of most intertemporal choice models. We find that many people do not demand compensation for waiting but rather for an uncertain future
Development Economics Seminar
Du 22/05/2024 de 16:30 à 18:00
R2.01
DUFLO Esther (MIT)
Can microfinance unlock a poverty trap for some entrepreneurs" (With Abhijit Banerjee, Emily Breza and Cynthia Kinnan)
Can microcredit help unlock a poverty trap for some people by putting
their businesses on a different trajectory? Could the small microcredit treatment effects often
found for the average household mask important heterogeneity? In Hyderabad, India, we find
that “gung ho entrepreneurs” (GEs), households who were already running a business before
microfinance entered, show persistent benefits that increase over time. Six years later, the
treated GEs own businesses that have 35% more assets and generate double the revenues as
those in control neighborhoods. We find almost no effects on non-GE households. A model
of technology choice in which talented entrepreneurs can access either a diminishing-returns
technology, or a more productive technology with a fixed cost, generates dynamics matching
the data. These results show that heterogeneity in entrepreneurial ability is important and
persistent. For talented but low-wealth entrepreneurs, short-term access to credit can indeed
facilitate escape from a poverty trap.
Histoire des entreprises et de la finance
Du 22/05/2024 de 16:00 à 17:30
R2.20
FABRE Antoine ()
La fabrique managériale de l’Anthropocène, Le rôle du prix de revient des plantations d’hévéa dans la déforestation en Indochine au début du XXe siècle
écrit avec Labardin P., Loizeau J., Boyer C.
Economic History Seminar
Du 22/05/2024 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1.09
JUHASZ Reka (UBC)
Codification and Technology Absorption: Evidence from Trade Patterns
écrit avec Réka Juhász, Shogo Sakabe, David E. Weinstein,
This paper studies technology absorption around the world in the late nineteenth
century. We construct several novel datasets to test the idea that the codification of
useful knowledge in the vernacular was necessary for countries to absorb the technologies
of the Industrial Revolution. Using the rapid and unprecedented codification
of useful knowledge in Meiji Japan as a natural experiment, we show that productivity
growth in Japan was higher in industries that had a higher supply of Western
useful knowledge, but only after the Japanese government undertook a large public
good investment to provide this knowledge to its citizens. We find no similar patterns
in other parts of the world which did not codify knowledge. Taken together,
our findings shed new light on the frictions associated with technology diffusion, and
offer a novel take on why Meiji Japan was unique among non-Western countries in
successfully industrializing during the first wave of globalization.
*
Virtual Development Economics Seminar
Du 21/05/2024 de 17:00 à 18:00
Zoom
CORNO Lucia ((Cattolica University and CEPR))
*
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 21/05/2024 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-14
SANTOS-CáRDENAS Daniela (PSE)
What Women Want: Misperceived Preferences in the Marriage Market
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 21/05/2024 de 14:30 à 16:00
PSE, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-01
JUHASZ Reka (UBC)
The Who, What, When, and How of Industrial Policy: A Text-Based Approach
écrit avec Nathan Lane, Emily Oehlsen and Verónica C. Pérez
Since the 18th century, policymakers have debated the merits of industrial policy
(IP). Yet, economists lack basic facts about its use. This study sheds light on
industrial policy by measuring and studying global policy practice for the first
time. We first create an automated classification algorithm for categorizing
industrial policy practice from text. We then apply it to a global database of
commercial policy descriptions and quantify policy use at the country, industry,
and year levels (2009-2020). These data allow us to study fundamental policy
patterns across the world. We highlight four findings. First, IP is common (25%
of policies in our database) and has expanded since 2010. Second, instead of
blunt tariffs, IP is granular and technocratic. Countries tend to use subsidies
and export promotion measures, often targeted at individual firms. Third, the
countries engaged most in IP tend to be wealthier (top income quintile) liberal
democracies. In our data, IP is rarer among the poorest nations (bottom quintile).
Fourth, IP is targeted toward a subset of industries and is highly correlated with
an industry’s revealed comparative advantage. We show that industrial policy is
a prominent feature of the global economy and a far cry from industrial policies
of the past.
Texte intégral
STEP (Seminar of Trade Economists in Paris)
Du 21/05/2024 de 13:00 à 14:00
R1-13
BOEHM Johannes (IHEID)
Trade and the End of Antiquity
écrit avec Thomas Chaney
What caused the end of antiquity, the shift of economic activity away from the Mediterranean towards Northern Europe? Henri Pirenne (1939) proposes that it was caused by the disruption of trade linkages following the Arab conquests of Northern Africa and Iberia by the Arabs and the associated loss of Byzantine naval power in the Western Mediterranean. To test the ‘Pirenne Thesis’ we assemble a large database of coin flows between the 4th and 10th century which we study through the lens of a dynamic gravity model of trade. Coins gradually diffuse alongside trade linkages. Coins contain information on the date and place of minting, which allows us to reconstruct trade flows from data on the spatial and temporal distribution of coins found in coin hoards. We estimate changes in trade costs arising from changing political and religious borders following the Arab conquests. Border effects can explain the relative decline of the eastern Mediterranean, but not the increased urbanization in Muslim Spain and in the Frankish lands. These patterns can be explained when we further account for technological change and for increased mint output. The estimated model points to the large effects that geopolitical changes can have by disrupting long-distance trade.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 21/05/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21
CHIOCCHETTI Alice ()
The Global Allocation of Extractive Windfalls
écrit avec Ninon Moreau-Kastler
Profits of oil, gas and mining companies are strongly linked to commodity prices, but little is known on how those windfall profits are distributed between corporations and states. To answer this question, we build a new dataset covering a large share of tax payments made by extractive firms worldwide by combining all mandatory reports on their tax payments. Using this new dataset, we estimate that a 1% increase in commodity prices results in a 0.45% increase in fiscal windfalls for states, with significant heterogeneity across types of payments and countries. In a second part, we investigate how fluctuations in profits arising from commodity price changes are distributed worldwide using a multi-country unconsolidated firm-level database matched with production data covering a large number of extractive firms from 2012 to 2022. We find that the profits of subsidiaries located in tax havens are more elastic to changes in commodity prices compared to other subsidiaries.