Calendrier du 09 septembre 2024
Régulation et Environnement
Du 09/09/2024 de 11:00 à 12:15
R1-09
REITZMANN Leo (PSE)
’Bad’ Oil, ’Worse’ Oil and Carbon Misallocation
Not all barrels of oil are created equal: their extraction varies in both private cost
and carbon intensity. Leveraging a comprehensive micro-dataset on world oil fields,
alongside detailed estimates of carbon intensities and private extraction costs, this
study quantifies the additional emissions and costs from having extracted the ’wrong’
deposits. We do so by comparing historical deposit-level supplies to counterfactuals
that factor in pollution costs, while keeping annual global consumption unchanged.
Between 1992 and 2018, carbon misallocation amounted to at least 11.00 gigatons of
CO2-equivalent, incurring an environmental cost evaluated at $2.2 trillion (US$ 2018).
This translates into a significant supply-side ecological debt for major producers of
high-carbon oil. Looking forward, we estimate the gains from making deposit-level
extraction socially optimal at about 9.30 gigatons of CO2-equivalent evaluated at $1.9
trillion along a future aggregate demand pathway coherent with the objective of net-
zero emissions in 2050, and document unequal reserve stranding across oil nations