Calendrier du mois de septembre 2024
Programme de la semaine précédente | Programme de la semaine | Programme de la semaine suivante | |
(du 2024-09-09 au 2024-09-16) | (du 2024-09-16 au 2024-09-22) | (du 2024-09-22 au 2024-09-29) |
Semaine du 2024-09-16 au 2024-09-22 |
Du 20/09/2024 de 13:00 à 14:00
écrit avec Kelsey Wright
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 20/09/2024 de 13:00 à 14:00
R1-09
WRIGHT Kelsey (World Bank)
Social Protection in Niger
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 20/09/2024 de 12:00 à 13:00
R1-14
GOUPILLE-LEBRET Jonathan (ENS LYON)
Tax Design, Information, and Elasticities: Evidence From the French Wealth Tax
écrit avec Bertrand GARBINTI, Mathilde MUNOZ, Stefanie STANTCHEVA, and Gabriel ZUCMAN
Using exhaustive administrative wealth and income tax data, we study a French wealth tax reformthat scaled back information reporting requirements below a certain wealth threshold. We developa dynamic bunching approach that permits estimating the average response to the reform, the share ofcompliers, and the LATE. Reported wealth declines sharply in response to the reform and annual wealthgrowth rates are on average 20% lower among affected taxpayers. This decline appears due to increasedevasion facilitated by the lower reporting requirements, as suggested by the fall in self-reported wealthbut the lack of response in third-party-reported labor and capital incomes. By contrast, the elasticitiesto tax rates estimated are very small and insignificant. This illustrates the critical role of informationreporting policies in shaping taxpayers’ behavior
Brown Bag Economics of Innovation Seminar
Du 20/09/2024 de 10:00 à 12:00
3 rue d’Ulm 75005 Paris
ARAGONESES Martin(INSEAD)
CHOI Jaedo(Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
The Firm Life Cycle Origins of the Aggregate Investment Puzzle
Martin Aragoneses: The decline in US investment after the 1980s is puzzling because profits increased and interest rates fell, which should have stimulated investment. I find the decline in the startup rate of new businesses is behind this missing investment boom puzzle. Confidential micro data from the US Census shows a striking divergence between micro and macro trends: investment increased by 10% for the average firm despite a 14.5% decline in aggregate investment. Changes in the firm age distribution masked this investment boom from aggregate data. Fewer births aged firms and depressed aggregate investment because older firms invest less intensely despite being more profitable. In a calibrated firm dynamics model, firm aging due to falling entry explains 80% of the investment trend decline from 11.5% to 9% of GDP between 1980 and 2010. Given historical changes in startup rates, the life cycle model rationalizes the boom and bust in aggregate investment and its puzzling relation with profits and interest rates since the 1950s. Consistent with the model, cross-country data shows rising investment and falling profits amidst a resurgence in startup activity since 2010.
Jaedo Choi: Should policymakers in developing countries prioritize foreign technology adoption over domestic innovation? How might this depend on development stages? Using historical technology transfer data from South Korea, we find that greater productivity gaps with foreign firms correlate with larger productivity growth after adoption, despite lower fees. Furthermore, non-adopters increased patent citations to foreign sellers, suggesting knowledge spillovers. Motivated by these findings, we build a two-country growth model with innovation and adoption. As the gaps narrow, productivity gains and spillovers from adoption diminish and foreign sellers strategically raise fees due to intensified competition, which renders adoption subsidies less effective. Korea’s shift from adoption to innovation subsidies substantially contributed to growth and welfare. We also explore the optimal policy and its interaction with import tariffs.
brown bag Travail et Économie Publique
Du 19/09/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
HEIM Arthur (PSE)
Rage against the matching: fairness and inequalities in a market design experiment of daycare assignments in France
The choice of childcare alternatives is a central decision which affects several key societal dimensions such as child development, mothers' labour supply, and economic and gender inequalities. While families from lower socioeconomic backgrounds tend to gain the most from formal childcare, these services are overwhelmingly used by more affluent families - a phenomenon often called the Matthew effect.
In this paper, we consider access to daycare as a matching problem controlled by local authorities. Based on policymakers' definitions of the procedure, we use market design to define assignment mechanisms and we analyse the consequences of important design choices in a field experiment. The daycare assignment problem is similar to school choice, but includes two additional features: multidimensional constraints that cover weekdays and diversity constraints, typically age groups. Policymakers' design choices affect the definition and range of stable matchings. Our algorithms deliver student optimal fair assignments (SOFA) in the different versions of the problem. From 2020 to 2023, we assigned daycare slots to families in nine urban districts in France. Our objectives were twofold: i) to provide automated assignment mechanisms with desirable properties and ii) to introduce random variation in assignment probabilities for future work on causal effects of accessing daycare. We use two case studies to demonstrate that our assignments meet their intended objectives and compare different assignments. Using a change in priorities in one case study and counterfactual simulations of alternative priority scores, we show that i) giving larger weights to some group (e.g. dual earners) increases their assignment probabilities and share in daycares, ii) increasing priorities with time since registration strongly penalises single parents, in part because iii) dual-earner couples compete for early entry and strategically register as soon as possible, as incentives. iv) Being the largest group and also receiving high social weights, their strategies crowd-out parents who cannot register that early and create inequalities of opportunities even among strategic parents, correlating assignment probabilities with birth month. Other analyses show that diversity constraints may create sharp discontinuities in assignment probabilities that are unrelated
to priority scores. Our results provide clear evidence of the mechanisms that contribute to the Matthew effects in childcare, and they are mostly political choices. However, our tools can be used to satisfy other distributional objectives and achieve higher transparency in the assignment processes.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 19/09/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1-14
MOISSON Paul-Henri (PSE)
The Cooperative and the For-Profits
écrit avec Pierre Dubois and Jean Tirole
Behavior seminar
Du 19/09/2024 de 11:00 à 12:00
R2-21
SANJURJO Adam (Universidad de Alicante) *;
La séance est annulée
Du 18/09/2024 de 16:30 à 18:00
R2-01
ULYSSEA Gabriel (University College London)
*
Economic History Seminar
Du 18/09/2024 de 12:30 à 14:00
R1-09
YANG Li (ZEW Mannheim and WIL)
The Making of China and India in 21st Century: Long Run Human Capital Accumulation from 1900 to 2020
This paper investigates the economic divergence of China and India in the 1980s through the lens of long-run human capital accumulation. By integrating a wide array of historical and educational reports and surveys, we have compiled a novel dataset covering the past120 years, detailing trends in human capital accumulation in both countries. Utilizing this comprehensive dataset, we establish a comparative framework to analyze the educational development strategies of China and India and evaluate their long-term impacts on inequality and economic development. We show that the progression of modern education in China and India diverged along several key dimensions. China adopted a bottom-up approach, prioritizing quantity over quality. Conversely, India implemented a top-down strategy, gradually expanding its educational system with an emphasis on maintaining quality. Additionally, compared to India’s educational system, China’s system featured more diversified secondary and tertiary education, with a strong emphasis on vocational education, teacher training, and engineering. Driven by differing educational development strategies, India exhibits much higher education inequality, accounting for one-quarter of observed wage inequality, compared to 5-12% in China. Ironically, India has a larger share of tertiary-educated graduates alongside a significant proportion of illiterates, whereas China has a much larger share of primary, secondary, and vocational graduates. High illiteracy in India hinders structural transformation by trapping many in low-productivity agriculture, while tertiary education in the humanities and accounting has made the service sector more attractive. While China’s better mix of engineering and vocational graduates produced human capital well-suited for the developing manufacturing sector.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 17/09/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2-21
AVETIAN Vladimir ()
Ink and Ire: The Revolutionary Impact of Russian Literature
Can the written word spark resistance against an autocratic state? To explore this question, we delve into Russian literature from its Golden Age, assessing how Russian literature may have fueled violent dissent against the State. We provide evidence that penetration of the magazine, notably carrying works of Russian literary giants that called for democratic change, intensified violent attacks against the Czar’s regime. Utilizing the “circle of Alexander Pushkin,” the legendary Russian poet and founder of the magazine, as a source of quasi-random variation in magazine’s spread in the early years and controlling for the pre-treatment density of writers in each mudnicipality, we show the relationship is likely causal. An instrumental variable strategy, focusing on the spread of the magazine through “haphazard” or “one-off” encounters with Pushkin, provides further causal leverage to our findings. Exploration of mechanisms suggests that the magazine inspired a new generation of Russian writers to write for political change. We test for and find evidence against several threats to identification. Overall, our findings underscore that Russian literature, one of recorded human history’s greatest literary triumphs, wielded a profound influence, serving as a catalyst for political violence and fueling the flames of resistance against the repressive Russian State.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 16/09/2024 de 16:00 à 17:15
R1-09
BATTIGALLI Pierpalo (Bocconi)
Monotonicity and Robust Implementation Under Forward-Induction Reasoning
It is well known that, in sequential games, the set of paths consistent with rationality and forward-induction reasoning may change non-monotonically with respect to transparent restrictions on players' beliefs (see Battigalli & Siniscalchi J. Econ. Theory 2002, and Battigalli & Friedenberg, Theor. Econ. 2012). Yet, we prove that---in an incomplete-information environment---predictions become sharper when the restrictions only concern initial beliefs about types. This monotonicity theorem implies that strong rationalizability for games with payoff uncertainty characterizes the path-predictions of forward-induction reasoning across all possible restrictions to players' initial hierarchies of beliefs on the exogenous uncertainty. The latter result allows us to solve an open problem in implementation theory: The implementation of social choice functions through sequential mechanisms under forward-induction reasoning---which considerably expands the realm of implementable functions compared with simultaneous-move mechanisms (Mueller, J. Econ. Theory 2016)---is robust in the sense of Bergemann and Morris (Theor. Econ. 2009).
Econometrics Seminar
Du 16/09/2024 de 16:00 à 17:15
ZOOM
CHEN Kevin (SIEPR)
Empirical Bayes When Estimation Precision Predicts Parameters
Empirical Bayes methods usually maintain a prior independence assumption: The unknown parameters of interest are independent from the known standard errors of the estimates. This assumption is often theoretically questionable and empirically rejected. This paper instead models the conditional distribution of the parameter given the standard errors as a flexibly parametrized family of distributions, leading to a family of methods that we call CLOSE. This paper establishes that (i) CLOSE is rate-optimal for squared error Bayes regret, (ii) squared error regret control is sufficient for an important class of economic decision problems, and (iii) CLOSE is worst-case robust when our assumption on the conditional distribution is misspecified. Empirically, using CLOSE leads to sizable gains for selecting high-mobility Census tracts. Census tracts selected by CLOSE are substantially more mobile on average than those selected by the standard shrinkage method.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 16/09/2024 de 11:00 à 12:15
R1-09
VAN BIESEBROECK Johannes (KU Leuven)
*Imperfect (Re)allocation in Imperfect Markets: Evidence from China’s Pilot Carbon ETS*
We evaluate the effectiveness of both absolute and intensity emission regulations in the Chinese carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) pilots that were established in 2013. The coexistence of two types of regulation within a single energy market provides a unique opportunity to study their differential effects on the magnitude and nature of emission reductions. We employ a difference-in-differences estimation strategy to examine the behavior of various market participants on all potential margins of adjustment, including energy consumption, industrial output, electricity trade, and substitution between power sources. We find that both types of regulation induce carbon mitigation, but that they come with distinct tradeoffs. Our results indicate that an aggregate annual reduction equivalent to an energy consumption of 7.5 and 8.7 million tons of standard coal can be attributed to the absolute and intensity-type emission regulations, respectively. This amounts to 9% and 23% of yearly energy consumption covered by the schemes.