Calendrier du 11 décembre 2017
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 11/12/2017 de 17:00 à 18:30
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
NAVA Francesco (LSE)
“Differentiated Durable Goods: Competition and Market Power”
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 11/12/2017 de 13:00 à 14:00
Room S3 MSE, 106-112 Bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris
PANON Ludovic (Sciences Po)
The Cost of Not Getting Along: Interstate Tensions and International Trade
écrit avec Florin Cucu (Sciences Po)
In this article, we provide evidence of the impact of interstate tensions on international trade. Using a large panel data set on asylum applications in the EU from 2002 to 2015, we develop a novel measure of interstate tensions based on refugee admission rates. Humanitarian conditions in the origin country explain little of the variation in approval rates, asylum policies being often used by governments as a foreign policy tool. Specifically, countries are more likely to accept refugees from rival countries. We then study the impact of this measure on trade flows between the EU and the rest of the world. We find that a one percentage point increase in our asylum policy based measure leads to a drop in trade ranging from 1% to 4%. Taking into account endogeneity concerns, we also exploit the variation in asylum policy across European countries as an instrumental variable and find that a change of 1 percentage point in our measure entails a drop in trade flows of 1% to 4% from one year to the next.