Applied Economics Lunch Seminar

Du 13/11/2018 de 12:30 à 13:30

R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris

POTTIER Antonin (CERNA - PSL)

Integrated assessment of climate and population change: A first evaluation

We develop an integrated assessment model with endogenous population dynamics accounting for the impact of global climate change on mortality. An age-dependent endogenous mortality rate, which depends linearly on global temperature increase, is introduced and calibrated. We consider three scenarios (a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, a 3 ?C scenario and a 2 ?C scenario) and find that climate-induced deaths per annum range from 160,000 (in the near term) to more than 300,000 (at the end of the century). We examine the number of life-years lost because of climate change in a given year and find figures ranging from 5 to 13 millions annually. Interestingly, the number of life-years lost is constant (BAU) or decreasing (3 ?C and 2 ?C scenarios) through time due to changes in the age-composition of future population. Using standard levels of the value of a statistical life, we can estimate that climate change-induced mortality is equivalent to a monetary loss between 0.2% and 0.5% of world GDP each year.