Calendrier du 13 février 2023
Econometrics Seminar
Du 13/02/2023 de 16:00 à 17:00
BEYHUM Jad (ENSAI)
Nowcasting GDP with factor-augmented high-dimensional MIDAS regression
écrit avec Co-author: J. Striaukas
This paper introduces a factor-augmented high-dimensional mixed-frequency regression model to nowcast GDP growth. This new approach goes beyond classical sparse regression and factor models, by combining them. We derive rates of convergence of our estimator. The new technique is applied to nowcast GDP. We find that it significantly improves over a range of more classical nowcasting methods based on either sparse regression or factor models.
Paris Migration Economics Seminar
Du 13/02/2023 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.14, Campus Jourdan
SIGNORELLI Sara (University of Amsterdam)
Talent Flows and the Geography of Knowledge Production: Causal Evidence from Multinational Firms
écrit avec with D. Bahar, P. Choudhury, J. Sappenfield
We investigate how reforms that ease or restrict inventor mobility affect both local and global innovation patterns. Leveraging a unique dataset that merges patent data with exhaustive information on work-related migration reforms that took place in 15 countries over 26 years, we employ a novel event-study approach. Our results show that reforms discouraging inventor mobility decrease the patenting of MNE subsidiaries within a country, while reforms encouraging it have a positive but much smaller effect. Building on the global nature of our exercise, we show that positive (negative) reforms adopted in the U.S. shifted innovation away from (toward) other countries, highlighting the existence of a global competition for talent. Finally, we provide evidence that policies easing migration have facilitated about half of the shift in the global share of innovation toward emerging markets.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 13/02/2023 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
UGINET Pierre (PSE)
*Melt water, seasonality and economic activities. An example from South Asia.
While climate change is projected to deeply modify melting processes of solid water, the links between seasonal snow, mountain glaciers melt and downstream economic activities is still unclear. In an econometric analysis of melt water shocks and overall economic activity at subnational levels, I deepen the understanding of whether and through which channel hydrological conditions affect economic development. I construct a new data set of monthly melt water shocks based on snow cover and glaciers data and combine them with nighttime light intensity at the 0.1? grid cell level over the entire region of Himalayan-fed hydraulic sub-basins. The data set covers all months from 2000 to 2013. I estimate the change in month specific annual economic development in a hydraulic sub-basin as a function of current and past melt water shocks in the chain of upstream sub-basins. This paper provides further evidence that upstream hydrological conditions have causal effects on downstream economic development. The key findings are that (i) economic development are significantly dependent on seasonal melt water quantities, (ii) shocks in discharged melt water have causal impacts on downstream economic activities and (iii) agriculture is the main channel through which the impacts propagate through the economy.