Calendrier du 13 juin 2024
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 13/06/2024 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R1-15
BILAL Adrien (Harvard)
Unveiling the Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature
écrit avec Diego Kanzig (Northwestern)
This paper estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are at least three to five times larger than previously thought. We exploit natural variability in global temperature and rely on a time series approach. We find that a 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world GDP. We document that global temperature shocks correlate much more strongly with extreme climatic events than country-level temperature shocks that the traditional panel literature relies on, explaining why our estimate is substantially larger. We then use our reduced-form results to estimate structural damage functions in a standard neoclassical growth model. A business as usual warming scenario implies a present value welfare loss of 32% and a Social Cost of Carbon of $772 per ton of carbon dioxide, several orders of magnitude above previous estimates.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 13/06/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-15
TIAN Lin (INSEAD)
Formation of Human Capital in Modern Economy
écrit avec Valerie Smeets and Sharon Traiberman
We study how the distribution of skills in the economy is shaped by students' choices over field of study. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium framework that incorporates both a labor market where workers differ in their field of study, and an education margin where students choose their fields in anticipation of future demand. Leveraging uniquely rich Danish administrative data, and features of the Danish university application system, we develop a methodology to jointly estimate students' field preferences and key labor market parameters, while allowing for latent heterogeneity in workers' skills and student preferences. We find that heterogeneity in how responsive students are to shocks, with some students being substantially more responsive than previous estimates. However, we also find that students cluster into several preference types over fields of study---e.g., STEM---so that they are only elastic across a subset of fields. We close the model and consider the general equilibrium consequences of globalization, as well as the effects of various labor market and education policies. We find that field of study explains 17% of the variation in labor market outcomes due to offshore shocks.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 13/06/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2-20
BARDIER Pierre (PSE)
Unanimity of two-selves in decision making
écrit avec Pierre BARDIER, Bach DONG-XUAN, Van-Quy NGUYEN.
We propose a new model of incomplete preferences under uncertainty, which we call unanimous dual-self preferences. Act f is considered more desirable than act g when, and only when, both the evaluation of an optimistic self, computed as the welfare level attained in a best-case scenario, and that of a pessimistic self, computed as the welfare level attained in a worst-case scenario, rank f above g. Our comparison criterion involves multiple priors, as best and worst cases are determined among sets of probability distributions, and is, generically, less conservative than Bewley preferences and twofold multi-prior preferences, the two ambiguity models that are closest to ours.
PEPES (Paris Empirical Political Economics) Working Group
Du 13/06/2024 de 12:30 à 14:00
Room H405 at Sciences Po
AMBRA SECK Awa (Harvard)
En Route: The French Colonial Army, Emigration, and Development in Morocco
: Between 1830 and 1962, six million Africans living under colonial rule served in the French army. Most were deployed internationally to maintain order or fight French wars. After independence, all were repatriated and granted the right to move to France. We estimate the effect of military deploy- ment on the soldiers’ long-term outcomes, as well as on their communities of origin, using historical data on Moroccan soldiers, and exploiting the arbitrary assignment of troops to international locations. We show that, within a municipality, cohorts with a higher share of soldiers deployed to France were more likely to relocate there after independence. In contrast, deployment to other locations did not affect emigration. Consistent with the establishment of emigration networks, we find that the effects persist for decades after independence. Furthermore, communities with a higher share of soldiers deployed to France have experienced better economic outcomes and a shift from the agricultural to the service sector today. These results highlight the role that colonial rule played in shaping emigration networks from the colonies and in contributing to persistent changes in their patterns of economic development