Calendrier du 18 septembre 2018
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 18/09/2018 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
YAKOVLEV Evgeny (NES )
Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Sizable Conditional Child Subsidy
écrit avec Ilia Sorvachev
The paper documents the strong effect of sizable child subsidy on fertility. The effect is significant in the short run and facilitates in the long run. To identify the causal effect of the subsidy in the short run, we apply Regression Discontinuity strategy within a short time interval near child subsidy's adoption. The long-run effect is documented using various Dif-in-Dif estimates, where we 1) compare fertility across Russian regions that implemented different regional child subsidies; 2) compare Russia with Eastern European countries that showed similar pre-reform trends in fertility.
The subsidy is conditional and can be used mainly to buy apartments (houses). We find that fertility grew faster in regions with a shortage of housing, with a higher ratio of subsidy to price of apartments, as well as in poorer regions. At the individual level, in regions outside Moscow, the subsidy affects the fertility decisions of families with higher (relative to the regional average) level of income and higher education more.
Finally, we find that the subsidy has substantial general equilibrium effect. It affected family stability. It results in the decrease of the share of single mothers, and in higher marriage rates. It also affected the housing market. We find that housing prices and the supply of new houses increased significantly as a result of the reform