Calendrier du 20 septembre 2024
Du 20/09/2024 de 13:00 à 14:00
écrit avec Kelsey Wright
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 20/09/2024 de 13:00 à 14:00
R1-09
WRIGHT Kelsey (World Bank)
Social Protection in Niger
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 20/09/2024 de 12:00 à 13:00
R1-14
GOUPILLE-LEBRET Jonathan (ENS LYON)
Tax Design, Information, and Elasticities: Evidence From the French Wealth Tax
écrit avec Bertrand GARBINTI, Mathilde MUNOZ, Stefanie STANTCHEVA, and Gabriel ZUCMAN
Using exhaustive administrative wealth and income tax data, we study a French wealth tax reformthat scaled back information reporting requirements below a certain wealth threshold. We developa dynamic bunching approach that permits estimating the average response to the reform, the share ofcompliers, and the LATE. Reported wealth declines sharply in response to the reform and annual wealthgrowth rates are on average 20% lower among affected taxpayers. This decline appears due to increasedevasion facilitated by the lower reporting requirements, as suggested by the fall in self-reported wealthbut the lack of response in third-party-reported labor and capital incomes. By contrast, the elasticitiesto tax rates estimated are very small and insignificant. This illustrates the critical role of informationreporting policies in shaping taxpayers’ behavior
Brown Bag Economics of Innovation Seminar
Du 20/09/2024 de 10:00 à 12:00
3 rue d’Ulm 75005 Paris
ARAGONESES Martin(INSEAD)
CHOI Jaedo(Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
The Firm Life Cycle Origins of the Aggregate Investment Puzzle
Martin Aragoneses: The decline in US investment after the 1980s is puzzling because profits increased and interest rates fell, which should have stimulated investment. I find the decline in the startup rate of new businesses is behind this missing investment boom puzzle. Confidential micro data from the US Census shows a striking divergence between micro and macro trends: investment increased by 10% for the average firm despite a 14.5% decline in aggregate investment. Changes in the firm age distribution masked this investment boom from aggregate data. Fewer births aged firms and depressed aggregate investment because older firms invest less intensely despite being more profitable. In a calibrated firm dynamics model, firm aging due to falling entry explains 80% of the investment trend decline from 11.5% to 9% of GDP between 1980 and 2010. Given historical changes in startup rates, the life cycle model rationalizes the boom and bust in aggregate investment and its puzzling relation with profits and interest rates since the 1950s. Consistent with the model, cross-country data shows rising investment and falling profits amidst a resurgence in startup activity since 2010.
Jaedo Choi: Should policymakers in developing countries prioritize foreign technology adoption over domestic innovation? How might this depend on development stages? Using historical technology transfer data from South Korea, we find that greater productivity gaps with foreign firms correlate with larger productivity growth after adoption, despite lower fees. Furthermore, non-adopters increased patent citations to foreign sellers, suggesting knowledge spillovers. Motivated by these findings, we build a two-country growth model with innovation and adoption. As the gaps narrow, productivity gains and spillovers from adoption diminish and foreign sellers strategically raise fees due to intensified competition, which renders adoption subsidies less effective. Korea’s shift from adoption to innovation subsidies substantially contributed to growth and welfare. We also explore the optimal policy and its interaction with import tariffs.