Calendrier du 23 mai 2022
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 23/05/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R2.21 - Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
KONDOR Peter (LSE)
Cleansing by Tight Credit: Rational Cycles and Endogenous Lending Standards
écrit avec Maryam Farboodi
Endogenous cycles emerge through the two-way interaction between lending standards and production fundamentals. When lenders choose credit quantity over quality, the resulting lax lending standards lead to low interest rates and high output growth but the deterioration of future loan quality. When the quality is suciently low, lenders switch to tight standards, causing high credit spreads and low growth but a gradual improvement in the quality of loans. This eventually triggers a shift back to a boom with lax lending, and the cycle continues. As such, credit standards play a dual role.
If they help the economy through promoting loan quantity today, they hurt future loan quality, and vice-versa. Investors don't internalize either role, thus, the constraint ecient economy features both a static and a dynamic externality, and albeit often being cyclical, it di ers from the decentralized equilibrium.
Texte intégral
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 23/05/2022 de 13:00 à 14:00
MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, Room Banquier: S03) 75013 Paris
NERI--LAINé Matteo (Paris Dauphine University - PSL)
Sovereign Gravity -- The Military Alliances’ Effect on trade and its implication in structural gravity
This paper tests and analyses the effect of military alliances on bilateral exports. Using CEPII’s and
Correlate of War’s country-level data from 1967 to 2012, we perform a gravity approach. Our baseline's
results show that alliances increase trade by 60%. We confirm the causality with an instrumental variable estimation. Thanks to the estimation of the differenced average treatment on the treated à la Couch and Placzek (2008), we show a stronger effect of 80% for the deepest alliances. Moreover, we determine this huge impact can be explained by alliances’ ability to create strong military cooperation. Therefore, they imply for exporting firms a decrease in their expropriation risk and a lower cost of information. In line with our empirical results, we formalize and include the military alliances in a generalizable theoretical structural gravity model. Performing a general equilibrium analysis, we demonstrate the trade liberalization enforced by military alliances leads to substantial welfare gains for signatories, but also losses for non-aligned countries.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 23/05/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
FRANçOIS Manon (PSE)
The complexity of multinational enterprises and tax avoidance
Does the complexity of multinationals' ownership structure serve tax avoidance? We use cross-country firm-level data to provide a description of the complexity determinants of ownership structure of multinational firms and show that affiliates belonging to more complex MNEs are more likely to bunch around zero profit, consistent with tax avoidance by multinational firms.