Calendrier du 25 janvier 2022
Du 25/01/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
GRAS Clément (PSE)
TBA
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 25/01/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1.09 Jourdan
ZABROCKI Leo (PSE)
Unbiased but Inflated Causal Effects
écrit avec Vincent Bagilet (Columbia University)
In this paper, we bridge two existing ideas. On the one hand, to avoid confounders, most identification strategies throw out variation and can inherently lead to a reduction in statistical power. On the other hand, when power is low, published estimates may overestimate true effects sizes. Using fake data simulations, we show that in a wide range of situations, neat causal identification strategies may produce inflated effects. As a consequence, there could be a trade off between avoiding confounders and overestimating true effect sizes due to low power issues. We discuss potential avenues to address this underrated issue.