Calendrier du 25 mars 2019
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 25/03/2019 de 17:00 à 18:30
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
FRICK Mira (Yale)
Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning
écrit avec Ryota lijima and Yuhta Ishii
We study to what extent information aggregation in social learning environments is robust to slight misperceptions of others' characteristics (e.g., tastes or risk attitudes). We consider a population of agents who obtain information about the state of the world both from initial private signals and by observing a random sample of other agents' actions over time, where agents' actions depend not only on their beliefs about the state but also on their idiosyncratic types. When agents are correct about the type distribution in the population, they learn the true state in the long run. By contrast, our first main result shows that even arbitrarily small amounts of misperception can generate extreme breakdowns of information aggregation, where in the long run all agents incorrectly assign probability 1 to some fixed state of the world, regardless of the true underlying state. This stark discontinuous departure from the correctly specified benchmark motivates independent analysis of information aggregation under misperception. Our second main result shows that any misperception of the type distribution gives rise to a specific failure of information aggregation where agents' long-run beliefs and behavior vary only coarsely with the state, and we provide systematic predictions for how the nature of misperception shapes these coarse long-run outcomes. Finally, we show that how sensitive information aggregation is to misperception depends on how rich agents' payoff-relevant uncertainty is. A design implication is that information aggregation can be improved through interventions aimed at simplifying the agents' learning environment.
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 25/03/2019 de 13:00 à 14:00
Campus MSE - Room 19
EL MALLAKH Nevine (Paris 1)
The effect of FDI liberalization on manufacturing firms’ technology upgrading
écrit avec Maria Bas
Régulation et Environnement
Du 25/03/2019 de 12:00 à 13:00
salle R1-13, campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
MARTINEZ-ZARZOSO Inma (University of Göttingen)
Searching for Grouped Patterns of Heterogeneity in the Climate-Migration Link
This paper investigates the extent to which international migration can be explained by climate change and whether this relationship varies systematically between groups of countries. The primary focus is to further investigate the differential effect found for countries with different income levels using a high-frequency migration dataset and allowing the country-grouping to be data-driven. For this purpose, the main results of this paper are based on the group-mean fixed-effects (GFE) estimator proposed by Bonhomme and Manresa (2015), which allows us to group the countries of origin according to the data generating process. The results indicate that on average, increasing average temperatures are associated with an increase in emigration rates, but that the pattern differs between groups. The relationship is driven by a group of countries mainly located in sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia. No statistically significant association is found between average local precipitation and emigration.