Calendrier du 26 janvier 2023
Job Market Seminar
Du 26/01/2023 de 12:00 à 13:15
R2-21
OSPITAL Augusto (UCLA)
Urban Policy and Spatial Exposure to Environmental Risk
In the past two decades, about half of the new homes in the United States were built
in environmentally risky areas. Why is new residential development being exposed to such
risk? I posit that land-use regulations restricting development in safer areas contribute to this
pattern. I study this question in the context of exposure to wildfire risk in the metropolitan
area of San Diego, California, where areas unexposed to risk are highly regulated and built
out. I estimate a quantitative urban model using detailed spatial data on zoning, density
limits, lot size restrictions, wildfire risk, and insurance. In the model, the regulations benefit
landowners and reallocate the population to unregulated at-risk areas. These effects depend on
estimated disamenities from wildfire risk, insurance access, and the spatial correlations between
regulations, wildfire risk, and location amenities. I find that land-use regulations raise citylevel rents by an average 28% and explain 7% of the residents living in fire-prone areas. The
estimated present-discounted cost of wildfire risk is $14,149 per person, with existing regulations
accounting for 10% of that cost. Over the next 40 years, as wildfire risk intensifies, the population
grows, and the current land restrictions become more binding, the number of exposed residents
will grow by 12%. The results show that institutions that restrain relocating out of harm’s way,
such as land-use regulations, can limit adaptation to climate change.