Calendrier du 31 janvier 2022
Econometrics Seminar
Du 31/01/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
HIRSHBERG David (Emory)
The Basis for Inference based on Synthetic Control Methods
Synthetic Control methods are becoming popular far beyond the context of comparative case studies in which they first proposed. It is no longer the rule that they are used only when we have one (or few) treated units. But despite recent attention, there is little consensus on when they work and how to do inference based on them. That there is no one way to think about panel data makes this difficult. In some interpretations, we are solving what is essentially a matrix completion problem with noise that is completely unrelated to selection of treatment; in others, we are inverse propensity weighting to adjust for the selection of treatment based on past outcomes, noise and all.
In this talk, I will discuss some results characterizing synthetic control estimation based on these two interpretations, drawing on the literature on synthetic control estimators for panel data as well as that on covariate balancing or calibrated inverse propensity weighting estimators for cross-sectional data. And I will highlight some issues that become apparent when we try to mix these perspectives, approaching inference based on selection of treatment from a perspective in which behaviors specific to individual units, i.e. fixed effects— interactive or otherwise, are needed to explain the heterogeneity of the data.
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 31/01/2022 de 13:00 à 14:00
https://zoom.univ-paris1.fr/j/97695651406?pwd=YldRUXh3eHA0Zk1XODJVaHdlSHdxUT09
ASCIONE Fabio (Paris 1 )
A lending hand from abroad? Corporate saving and imported intermediate inputs in three European countries
Rising corporate saving has figured prominently in the debate on economic inequality and the emergence of global imbalances, even though little is known on the detrimental drivers of this dramatic trend. This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of corporate saving by highlighting the role of intermediate input importing from non-financial industries in Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands over the period 2000-2014. Combining comprehensive firm-level data from the Orbis Bureau Van Dijk database with industry information on imported intermediate inputs from the World Input-Output Database, I find robust evidence that expanded access to cheaper intermediates has significantly contributed to the rise in corporate saving. The effects are particularly strong for imports from Eastern Europe and somewhat weaker for imports from China. These findings imply that the increasing fragmentation of production of the non-financial sector has contributed considerably to corporate sector surpluses, and hence to macroeconomic imbalances and economic inequality while qualifying Eastern Europe as special in that it accounts for the bulk of these surpluses in major current account surplus countries.
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