Calendrier du mois de octobre 2022
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 27/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R2-01
ZWICK Eric (Chicago)
Stimulating Durable Purchases
écrit avec David Berger, Tianfang Cui, Nicholas Turner
What determines how durable purchases respond to fiscal and monetary stimulus? Though empirical studies show large responses to temporary subsidies for durable goods, the evidence is inconclusive on these policies’ stimulative effect net of reversal. We build a heterogeneous agent general equilibrium model in which durable takeup and adjustment decisions over the life cycle are lumpy and subject to financial constraints. We calibrate the model to match steady-state durable consumption patterns as well as quasi-experimental moments from homebuying subsidies. We then use the model to explore what drives stimulus reversal, to decompose reduced form responses of consumption to stimulus, and to evaluate the welfare benefits of alternative policies.
The model reconciles empirical results on temporary policies’ reversal, emphasizing how aggregate effects depend on the stimulated good’s durability and the timing of stimulus receipt. Heterogeneity affects aggregate responses to policies due to households facing binding financial constraints when buying durables, for whom temporary subsidies shift their medium-run durable purchase decisions. Whether policies precisely target downpayment constraints matters both for the magnitude of policy response and the composition of households that benefit from a given policy.
We use data from credit registers to develop out-of-sample tests of the model. The data reveal how different stimulus policies shift the age distribution of households who adjust to take advantage of a given policy. We propose alternative subsidy schedules that increase the level of durable expenditures stimulated per dollar spent. We also use the model to rank housing support policies, ranging from deductibility for mortgage interest to zoning reforms to unconditional cash transfers.
Economic History Seminar
Du 26/10/2022 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R2.01 Campus Jourdan
RYCKBOSCH Wouter (Université de Bruxelles)
Inequality in the streets. Using witness depositions to study social and economic change in 18th and 19th-century urban Belgium
Between 1750 and 1850 cities in Belgium went through a period of profound and comprehensive transition. Industrial mechanisation, urban growth, migration, and political revolution brought an end to the ‘ancien régime’: the society of orders was abolished and replaced by one of the most unequal class-based countries in 19th-century Europe. Although the emergence of a property- and class-based society is widely regarded as one of the most fundamental changes in history, its causes and effects in many cases remain up for debate and revision. By looking at subtle changes in social interactions in everyday life in the modernising city, this contribution aims to contribute to a better understanding of the reconfiguration of the inequality regime in 18th- and 19th-century Belgium.
Historians have long argued that everyday life and social relations, such as time-use and labour activities, were impacted by the ascent of industrial mechanisation (Thompson; Glennie & Thrift; Voth). However, in recent years the opposite argument has also been formulated: that the rise of capitalism stimulated property- and class-based social distinctions in daily life prior to, and ultimately leading up to, the French Revolution (Roche; Sewell).
The current paper aims to test such hypotheses by examining how everyday patterns of labour, leisure, urban space, and time converged or diverged for different social groups between 1700 and 1900. In order to do so I will use a new dataset of digitised witness depositions from criminal court cases from the town of Bruges to extract and trace patterns over the course of this period.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 25/10/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
Salle R1.13
GIURICKOVIC Enrichetta (PSE)
How do Firms Adjust Employment in Reaction to Shocks? Evidence from France
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 25/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Campus Jourdan, R1.09
LOCKS Gedeão (University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)
Behavioral Responses to Inheritance Taxes: Evidence from Brazil
In this paper, I examine behavioral responses to inheritances and gifts taxes in
Brazil using inheritance tax microdata (2014-2020). Using bunching and differencesin-differences (DD) techniques, I provide compelling evidence that individuals react to
tax hikes by re-timing their wealth transfers. I leverage intra-national variation from six
reforms that modified the inheritances and gifts tax design to identify how they shape
individual responses. I find that anticipatory effects respond mostly to the underlying
variation in gifts taxes and changes in the tax system (flat versus progressive rates).
Moreover, I use the DD approach to investigate the reform’s medium-run effects. I
find that evasion increased, as the number of declared bequests dropped substantially
after the reforms were implemented. I rule out the possibility that this effect is driven
by migration. Lastly, I find that that reforms did not impact inheritance and gift
tax revenues up to 5 years after the reform implementation. A back-of-the-envelope
calculation suggests that roughly 30% of the projected tax revenue increase is lost
through re-timing responses.
Du 24/10/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 24/10/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
DENICOLO Vincenzo (Bocconi)
*Acquisitions, innovation and the entrenchment of monopoly”. Below is the abstract. I also attach a copy of the paper (which is co-authored with Michele Polo).
We analyze a dynamic model of repeated innovation where inventors may either be acquired by an incumbent or else resist takeover and challenge for leadership. In the short run, acquisitions always spur innovation because of the invention-for-buyout effect. In the longer run, however, they may stifle it because of a countervailing effect, the entrenchment of monopoly. The latter occurs when the incumbent's dominance depends on past levels of activity and is therefore reinforced by recurrent acquisitions. We show that if the entrenchment effect is sufficiently strong, forward-looking policymakers should prohibit acquisitions in anticipation of the long-run negative impact on innovation. This argument sets out a new theory of harm that can be used to block acquisitions that could otherwise go unchallenged.
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 24/10/2022 de 13:00 à 14:00
Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle 116
KöGEL Clara(OECD)
ZUNIGA-CORDERO Alvaro()
TBA
Texte intégral
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 24/10/2022 de 13:00 à 14:00
Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle 116
KöGEL Clara(OECD)
ZUNIGA-CORDERO Alvaro()
Gender Diversity in Senior Management and Firm Productivity: Evidence from nine OECD Countries
écrit avec Peter Gal and Cyrille Schwellnus
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 21/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
MALLIA Paola (PSE)
Blame it on the weather: the case of sweet potato in Uganda
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 20/10/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
DEBORTOLI Davide (UPF)
Idiosyncratic Income Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations
écrit avec J. Galí
We study the role of idiosyncratic income shocks for aggregate fluctuations within a simple heterogeneous household framework with no binding borrowing constraints. We show that the presence of idiosyncratic income shocks affects the economy’s response to an aggregate shock in a way that can be captured by a consumption weighted average of the changes in uncertainty generated by the shock. We apply this framework to two example economies —an endowment economy and a New Keynesian economy— and show that under plausible calibrations the impact of idiosyncratic income shocks on aggregate fluctuations is quantitatively small, since most of the changes in uncertainty are concentrated among poorer (low consumption) households.
PEPES (Paris Empirical Political Economics) Working Group
Du 20/10/2022 de 12:30 à 14:00
Sciences Po.
MARTINEZ-BRAVO Monica (CEMFI)
The Management of the Pandemic and its Effects on Trust and Accountability
écrit avec with Carlos Sanz (Bank of Spain)
The COVID-19 pandemic took place against the backdrop of growing political polarization and distrust in political institutions in many countries. Furthermore, most governments fell short of expectations regarding preparedness and quality in the management of the pandemic. Did deficiencies in government performance further erode trust in public institutions? Did citizens’ ideology interfere on the way they processed information on their government performance? To investigate both questions, we conducted a pre-registered online experiment in Spain in November 2020. Respondents in the treatment group were provided information on the number of contact tracers in their region, a key policy under the control of regional governments. We find that individuals greatly over-estimate the number of contact tracers in their region. When we provide the actual number of contact tracers, we find: a decline in trust in governments; a reduction on willingness to fund public institutions; and a decrease in COVID-19 vaccine acceptance. We also find that individuals endogenously change their attribution of responsibilities when receiving the treatment. In regions where the regional and central governments are ruled by different parties, sympathizers of the regional incumbent react to the negative news on performance by attributing greater responsibility for it to the central government. We call this the blame shifting effect. In those regions, the negative information does not translate into lower voting intentions for the regional incumbent government. These results suggest that the exercise of political accountability may be particularly difficult in settings with high political polarization and where areas of responsibility are not clearly delineated.
brown bag Travail et Économie Publique
Du 20/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R2-01
PAUL-VENTURINE Julia ()
Understanding the spatial impacts of land use regulations : the case of risk prevention plans in France
The Lubrizol explosion and the recent floods in Germany reminds that urban areas are exposed to diverse risks. Risks prevention plans (PPR) are a type of land use regulation that intend to tackle externalities deriving from inhabitants and firms choosing to locate in hazardous areas by strictly controlling construction and land use. It also provides objective information to inhabitants about existing risks. I investigate the effects of PPR implementation on local housing markets by exploiting variation in application dates in a difference-in-difference with staggered adoption framework.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 20/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1-14, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
DEKEL Amit (PSE)
*Set-Valued Rational Expectations and Farsighted Stability
An abstract game consists of a set of states, preferences over states, and an effectivity correspondence specifying which coalitions are allowed to move from one state to another. Traditional solution concepts used to analyze abstract games under the assumption that players are farsighted (i.e. take into account the entire chain of moves that may follow their own), such as the Farsighted Stable Set or the Largest Consistent Set, do not fully respect the principle of optimizing behavior. This is commonly referred to as the maximality critique. Dutta and Vohra (2017) propose a fix to this problem that comes at the expense of restricting the protocol of play. Ray and Vohra (2019) propose a fix that comes at the expense of scaring existence away. We build on ideas in these papers to propose a fix which is free of such shortcomings. Unlike existing solution concepts, we specify expectations which are set-valued, meaning that several states may be expected to follow any given state. We relate the proposed solution concept to existing ones, discuss its properties, provide necessary conditions for existence, and study its application to strategic and extensive form games.
Behavior seminar
Du 20/10/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
Via Zoom
LEFEBVRE Mathieu (Aix-Marseille University)
*Information Disclosure under liability
We experimentally investigate the impact of information disclosure on managing collective harms that are caused jointly by a group of liable agents. Subjects interact in a public bad setting and must choose ex ante how much to contribute in order to reduce the probability of causing a common damage. If a damage occurs, subjects bear a part of the loss according to the liability-sharing rule in force. We consider two existing rules: a per capita rule and a proportional rule. Our aim is to analyze the relative impact of information disclosure under each rule. We show that information disclosure increases contributions only under a per capita rule. This result challenges the classical results regarding the positive effects of information disclosure, since we show that this impact may depend upon the legal context. We also show that while a proportional rule leads to higher contributions than a per capita one, the positive effect of disclosure on a per capita rule makes it as efficient as a proportional rule without information disclosure.
Development Economics Seminar
Du 19/10/2022 de 16:30 à 18:00
Salle R2.21 Campus Jourdan
CALLEN Michael (LSE)
Modernizing the State During War: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan
écrit avec Joshua E. Blumenstock (U.C Berkeley), Anastasiia Faikina (U.C San Diego), Stefano Fiorin (Bocconi, LEAP, CEPR), Tarek Ghani (Washington University)
This paper provides evidence on how to effectively build basic state capacity during active internal conflict. We report results from a randomized evaluation of a major reform intended to improve the Afghan government’s ability to pay its employees, which involved over 30,000 employees of the Ministry of Education between 2018 and 2020. The first element of the program, designed to eliminate ‘ghost’ workers, required employees to register for a mobile money wallet with biometric identification. This helped eliminate ghosts from the payroll (1.3% of employees), and allows estimation of the true share of ghosts (8.4% - 20.4%). The second element transitioned employees from receiving their salary in cash to receiving it via direct mobile money transfers. This led to a 26 percentage point increase in support for the reform to be scaled nationally, reduced salary delays, and caused employees to dramatically increase activity on the mobile money network, demonstrating a potential pathway toward expanding Afghanistan’s formal financial system. Because the experiment spanned both secure cities and contested rural regions, we can examine whether state control complemented the reform. While the reform brought benefits everywhere, improvements materialized faster in cities. Our results highlight the importance of long-term horizons in state-building efforts and provide evidence that progress toward a modern bureaucracy is possible, even in the shadow of war and while the broader state is under threat.
Histoire des entreprises et de la finance
Du 19/10/2022 de 16:00 à 17:30
Salle R1.13 Campus Jourdan
ROBERTSON Charlotte (Harvard Business School)
Integral Outside: The Marseille Coulisse, the Electric Telegraph, and the Politics of Pricing in Second Empire France
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 19/10/2022 de 12:00 à 13:00
Salle R1.13, Campus Jourdan
PAPPADà Francesco (PSE)
The dynamics of fiscal policy and informal economy under sovereign risk
écrit avec Yanos Zylberberg
In economies with imperfect tax enforcement, the dynamics of the informal economy might mitigate the relationship between fiscal policy and default risk. We build a model of sovereign debt with limited commitment and imperfect tax enforcement to assess the consequences of dynamic distortions induced by fiscal policy. In the model, fiscal policy persistently affects taxable activity, which impacts future fiscal revenues and thus default risk. The interaction of tax distortions and limited commitment strongly constrains the dynamics of optimal fiscal policy and leads to costly fluctuations in consumption.
Economic History Seminar
Du 19/10/2022 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan
GONZALEZ FELIPE (Queen Mary University)
Policies in Turbulent Times: Historical Evidence from Salvador Allende's Milk Program
écrit avec joint work with Mounu Prem
Democracies weaken when policies are implemented poorly and fail to sustain or increase government support. We study the link between policy and politics in the context of a country-wide milk program aiming to improve children's health during Salvador Allende's government (1970-1973) in Chile. Using historical data, we show that milk distribution increased markedly during Allende's tenure and followed beneficiaries closely without being distorted by political considerations. Moreover, we show that this public health policy was successful in building political support for Allende's coalition at times when democracy was at risk. We conclude that well-implemented policies can strengthen governments even in turbulent times.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 18/10/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1.13
CHERITEL Côme (PSE)
Robust integration of (physical) uncertainty into climate policies
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 18/10/2022 de 14:45 à 16:15
Sciences Po, 28 rue des Saints-Pères, 75007 Paris (M° Saint Germain des Prés), SALLE H 405
RUZIC Dimitrije (INSEAD)
Factor-Biased Outsourcing: Implications for Capital-Labor Substitution
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 18/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan
RICHARD Marion (PSE)
Who Feels Poor? Transitions into Poverty and Subjective Well-Being
Identifying who is poor with the help of meaningful poverty lines is of major interest from a public policy perspective. Yet, the level of monetary poverty line at 60% used by most OECD countries is never discussed. Using detailed panel administrative data for France, I question the level of this threshold by comparing the income trajectories of households to the evolution of their well-being, and I find that individuals’ satisfaction is not affected by transitions into poverty at 60% of the median income. I show that falling below 80% of the median income leads to a significant drop in satisfaction for respondents, thus making this threshold a subjective line of poverty. Extending the analysis to a set of countries, I find the same result for Australian households, but not for British and German households, whose well-being exhibits a different profile around negative income shocks.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 17/10/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
KNOEPFLE Jan (QMUL)
*Should the Timing of Inspections be Random ?
A principal provides funding for a long-term project that culminates in a success or a failure. Arrival rates of success and failure are governed by an agent's hidden actions: diverting the funds for private benefit increases the likelihood of failure; investing the funds increases the likelihood of success. The principal learns about past actions by performing costly inspections.
We show that the form of the optimal timing of inspections depends only on the relative sensitivity of success and failure rates to the agent's investment choice. When investment primarily generates success, the inspection dates are predictable. When investment primarily prevents failure, the optimal timing of inspections is random.
Paris Migration Economics Seminar
Du 17/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.15, Campus Jourdan
STUHLER Jan (U. Carlos III de Madrid)
Immigration and Monopsony: Evidence Across the Distribution of Firms
Régulation et Environnement
Du 17/10/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
GOUSSEBAILE Arnaud (ETH Zürich)
*Democratic Climate Policies with Overlapping Generations
An extensive climate policy literature provides various recommendations, but they are not supported democratically since the models employed consider either infinitely-lived individuals or normative social objectives (or both). In contrast, the present paper provides policy recommendations that are able to go through democratic processes. I develop an overlapping generation model with political process micro-foundations. I analyze how democratic policies, which are directly and indirectly related to climate change, differ from standard recommended policies. The novel politico-economic formula derived for the interest rate highlights that individual pure time preference, individual altruism toward descendants, and young generation political power are key determinants of democratic climate policy ambition.
PSE Internal Seminar
Du 14/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2-01
JEHIEL Philippe(PSE)
RICKNE Johanna(Stockholm University)
*
EPCI (Economie politique du changement institutionnel) Seminar
Du 14/10/2022 de 11:00 à 12:30
Salle du 6e, Maison des Sciences Économiques, 112 Bd de l'Hôpital, 75013 Paris
CARBONNIER Clément (U. Paris 8 Vincennes-St Denis, LED & Sciences Po, LIEPP)
Décomposition de l’évolution des inégalités en France de 1970 à 2018
La mesure des inégalités a connu de grandes avancées ces dernière décennies, avec la production de données détaillées et comparables intertemporellement et internationalement. Toutefois, ce grand détail et ces comparabilités se paient en partie par la mise en retrait de certaines dimensions, notamment démographiques et familiales, se focalisant sur des paramètres homogènes et continus : principalement le revenu et le patrimoine. L'objectif de la présente étude est de documenter l'évolution des inégalités de revenu en France sur longue période (de 1970 à 2018), en décomposant cette évolution entre plus dimensions : composition familiale, CSP des hommes, CSP des femmes, revenus du travail, autres revenus, prélèvements obligatoires, allocations et transferts.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 13/10/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-01
CHALLE Edouard (Pse & Cnrs)
Inequality and optimal exchange-rate policy
écrit avec Sushant Acharya
We study optimal exchange rate stabilization in a tractable Small Open HANK Economy with endogenous consumption risk and rich cross-sectional inequalities. Besides the closed-economy channels, aggregate demand management operates through the real exchange rate, which affects both GDP (through expenditure switching) and national income (through the relative price of foreign goods) and ultimately feeds back to domestic cross-sectional heterogeneity. We show that these open-economy channels require stabilizing the exchange rate substantially more in HANK than in RANK after aggregate productivity shocks; this is because stabilizing the exchange rate mitigates expenditure switching and the implied fluctuations in domestic inequalities. The same is true in response to capital-flow shocks, provided that agents are sufficiently risk averse.
brown bag Travail et Économie Publique
Du 13/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R2-01
IRAIZOZ Ander ()
Saving for Retirement as a Self-Employed Worker: Evidence from the Voluntary Pension Scheme in Spain
This paper investigates the effect of pension saving incentives for self-employed workers. For this, I take advantage of the unique setting offered by the Spanish pension system, which allows the self-employed in Spain to voluntarily decide on the level of their Social Security contributions (SSC). I exploit the change in public pension saving incentives induced by the 1997 pension reform using a difference-in-differences approach. I find that the self-employed give modest saving responses relative to the magnitude of the return provided by the Spanish public pension system. I provide evidence implying that the low salience of the expected return to pension contributions is one of the main drivers of such a modest response. Overall, this paper concludes that a voluntary system without salient saving incentives does not support transferring resources across the life-cycle for self-employed workers.
PEPES (Paris Empirical Political Economics) Working Group
Du 13/10/2022 de 12:00 à 14:00
Sciences Po.
PAPAIOANNOU Elias (LBS)
Forced Displacement and Human Capital
écrit avec with Giorgio Chiovelli, Stelios Michalopoulos, and Sandra Sequeira
We examine the impact of conflict-driven displacement on human capital by looking at the Mozambican civil war (1977-1992), during which more than four million civilians fled to the countryside, cities, refugee camps, and settlements in neighboring countries. First, we present descriptive patterns linking displacement to education and sectoral employment for the entire population. Second, we compare brothers and sisters separated during the war. Displaced individuals invest more in education than their siblings who stayed behind, particularly rural-born children escaping to urban areas. Third, we jointly estimate place-based and uprootedness effects as potential mechanisms. Both are present, with displacement fostering education and decreasing attachment to agriculture by the same rate as exposure to an environment approximately half-a-standard deviation more developed than one's birthplace. Fourth, we report on an original survey we conducted in Mozambique's largest Northern city, whose population doubled during the civil war. Those displaced to Nampula have significantly higher education than their siblings who remained in the countryside. Besides, their education has converged to non-mover urban dwellers. However, internally displaced people report significantly lower social/civic capital and have worse mental health three decades after the war. Jointly the results suggest that forced displacement, especially to cities, can trigger human capital investments and break links with subsistence agriculture but at the cost of lasting social and psychological traumas.
Behavior seminar
Du 13/10/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
R2-21
ATTEMA Arthur (Erasmus School of Health Policy & Management )
*Decomposing Social Risk Preferences for Health and Wealth
This study reports the results of the first artefactual field experiment designed to measure the prevalence of aversion toward social risks for health and wealth in a large and demographically representative sample. We identify social risk preferences for wealth and health for losses and gains, and decompose these attitudes into four different dimensions: viz., an individual risk dimension, a collective risk dimension, an ex-post inequality dimension and an ex-ante inequality dimension. The results of a non-parametric analysis suggest that aversion to risk and inequality is the modal preference for outcomes in health and wealth in the domain of gains and losses. Furthermore, we find stronger ex-ante than ex-post inequality aversion for health gains, and the opposite for health losses. These differences are of the same sign but not significant for wealth gains and losses. A parametric decomposition reveals that attitudes toward individual risk are moderated by the domain of the outcomes; respondents are risk neutral for individual members of society in the loss domain for health and wealth. These results highlight the importance of considering different components of social risk preferences when managing social risk.
Du 13/10/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
Behavior Working Group
Du 13/10/2022 de 10:00 à 11:00
DEKEL Amit (PSE)
Testing myopic and farsighted stability concepts: a network formation experiment
Development Economics Seminar
Du 12/10/2022 de 16:30 à 18:00
Salle R1.09 Campus Jourdan
KONDYLIS Florence (World Bank)
Learning from self and learning from others: Experimental evidence from Bangladesh
écrit avec with John Loeser, Mushfiq Mobarak, Maria Jones, and Daniel Stein
Can decentralizing demonstration accelerate diffusion of new technologies? We randomize approaches to demonstration of a new flood-saline-resilient seed in Bangladesh, led either by a single farmer or with expanded participation holding fixed village-level demonstration scale. Decentralization increases the impacts of demonstration on adoption: more farmers learn by demonstrating, and additional demonstrators strengthen social learning. However, in the long run, the impacts of demonstration fall and additional impacts of decentralization strikingly vanish. We estimate a Bayesian model of learning the returns to a new technology; adoption is nonmonotonic in learning, and decentralizing demonstration increases expected gains from demonstration.
Histoire des entreprises et de la finance
Du 12/10/2022 de 16:00 à 17:30
Salle R1.14, Campus Jourdan
CADOREL Jean-Laurent ()
The french historical yield curve since 1870
Economic History Seminar
Du 12/10/2022 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R1.13, Campus Jourdan
BENVENISTE Stéphane (INED-AMSE)
Political and Business Dynasties in France: a Social Gradient in Returns to Elite Education
Dynasties constitute a visible sign of intergenerational persistence and raise questions on the legitimacy of the ruling elite. Among graduates of prestigious higher education institutions, this paper quantifies occupational following in the French political and business elites. I link nominative data on 103,309 graduates from 12 French Grandes Écoles born between 1931 and 1975 to their professional careers between 1958 and 2019 as politicians with national-level mandates or as board members of French firms. Identifying familial lineage though shared surnames, I find that children of political and business leaders had higher chances than their graduate peers to embrace careers in the elite, emphasizing a social gradient in returns to elite education. Political dynasties were particularly sizeable, although progressively declining. These dynasties also affect the composition of the French elite. Indeed, dynastical board members are less frequently graduates from top institutions than first-generation directors, and members of the elite manage to propel their offspring much younger to top business and political positions.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 11/10/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1.13
STRICOT Maëlle (PSE)
Understanding the determinants of sexual violence (under)reporting: Evidence from France
Sexual violence and its underreporting are major social problems. Encouraging victims to report to formal authorities is key to preventing and combating this violence. This paper explores the determinants of reporting sexual violence to the police using data from the French victimization survey. I show that the reporting propensity is higher for victims with low socioeconomic status, living in urban areas, or having suffered an assault involving physical injuries. I also analyze rare information on the reasons for not reporting to unveil the mechanisms behind these findings, which allows me to discard some frequently advanced explanations. First, I provide suggestive evidence that victims of higher socioeconomic status report less not because they fear social recrimination but due to better knowledge of the criminal justice system and the material and psychological costs associated with reporting. Second, the sizable impact of physical injury occurrence is unlikely to be explained by better prospects of winning the case thanks to this solid evidence. Instead, it seems driven by better alignment with the cultural norms stemming from the "classic rape" stereotype. Overall, the results suggest that the low reporting of sexual violence stems more from distrust in the criminal justice response than fear of inadequate police intake.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 11/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan
IGNACIO MERCATANTE Juan (PSE)
Food access or energy security? The case of biofuels in Argentina
Biofuels are an alternative source of energy that is renewable and less polluting than traditional fuels. However, their production is strongly linked to food access conditions since it requires the use of primary inputs that could be alternatively used for food production. The most widely applied policy around the world regarding biofuels is the mandatory blend of fuels and biofuels in a fixed proportion set by the law. This work proposes the application of a new biofuel policy: the flexible blend. The idea behind this proposal is to exploit the substitutability between fossil fuels and biofuels to improve the productive, distributive, and environmental performance of the economy. It is also addressed the impact of this flexible blend in terms of energy security and food access. The first research question is: how does the flexible blend performs compared to other biofuel mandates under a business-as-usual scenario? The second one is: how do these types of blends react under different contexts? I evaluate four scenarios: (i) an increase in the international price of oil, (ii) an increase in the international price of agricultural commodities, (iii) a carbon tax, and (iv) a fall in the productivity of the agricultural sector (i.e., drought or floods). For that purpose, I have developed a Computable General Equilibrium model calibrated with an own elaborated Social Accounting Matrix of Argentina in 2018. The main results suggest that a flexible blend has positive impact on the economic activity and the national welfare. Moreover, it improves energy and food access conditions to households. Finally, this flexible energy policy allows cushioning the unwanted effects of different external socks and other domestic policies.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 10/10/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
HE Junnan (Sciences Po)
*Learning from Viral Content - (with Krishna Dasaratha)
We study learning on social media using an equilibrium model where users interact with shared news stories. Rational users arrive sequentially and each observes an original story (i.e., a private signal) and a sample of predecessors' stories in a news feed, then decides which stories to share. Sampled news stories depend on what predecessors share as well as the sampling algorithm, which represents a design choice of the platform. We focus on how much the algorithm relies on virality (how many times a story has been previously shared) when generating news feeds. Showing users more viral stories can increase information aggregation, but can also generate steady states where most shared stories are wrong. Such misleading steady states self-perpetuate, as users who observe these wrong stories develop wrong beliefs, and thus rationally continue to share them. Moreover, these bad steady states appear discontinuously.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 10/10/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE, room R1-13
SUN Liyang (CEMFI)
Empirical Welfare Maximization with Constraints
When designing eligibility criteria for welfare programs, policymakers naturally want to target the individuals who will benefit the most. This paper proposes two new econometric approaches to selecting an optimal eligibility criterion when individuals’ costs to the program are unknown and need to be estimated. One is designed to achieve the highest benefit possible while satisfying a budget constraint with high probability. The other is designed to optimally trade off the benefit and the cost from violating the budget constraint. The setting I consider extends the previous literature on Empirical Welfare Maximization by allowing for uncertainty in estimating the budget needed to implement the criterion, in addition to its benefit. Consequently, my approaches improve the existing approach as they can be applied to settings with imperfect take-up or varying program needs. I illustrate my approaches empirically by deriving an optimal budget-constrained Medicaid expansion in the US.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 10/10/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
NIEDERMAYER Andras (Cergy Paris Université)
*Rational Panic Purchases
We analyze rational panic purchases in a two-period model that incorporates uncertainty about sellers’ capacity and buyers’ need for the good. Even if sellers have enough capacity to satisfy demand, there may be shortages because consumers panic purchase. We show that panics can only occur if consumers are risk averse or in noncompetitive equilibria. In noncompetitive equilibria, sellers initially price below opportunity cost to induce a panic and achieve higher profits later. Conventional wisdom for various policies may be overturned when it comes to preventing panic purchases: rationing, price caps, information policy, changes of consumption tax, and restrictions on resellers.
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 07/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
MARGOLIS David (PSE)
The Gendered Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic in the Philippines
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 06/10/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R1-14
BOYER Marcel (Université de Montréal)
The taxation of couples
écrit avec Felix Bierbrauer, Andreas Peichl, Daniel Weishaar
This paper studies the tax treatment of singles and couples. We use two different approaches. One is tailored to the analysis of systems that stick to the principle that the tax base for couples is the sum of their incomes. One is tailored to the analysis of reforms towards individual taxation. We study the US federal income tax since the 1960s through the lens of this framework. We find that, for the recent past, realizing efficiency gains requires to lower marginal tax rates for secondary earners. We also find that revenue-neutral reforms towards individual taxation are in the interest of couples with high secondary earnings while couples with low secondary earnings are worse off. The support for such a reform recently passed the majority threshold. It is rejected, however, by a Rawlsian social welfare function. Thus, there is a tension between Rawlsian and Feminist notions of social welfare.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 06/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R2-01
DURANTE Ruben (UPF)
Visual Representation and Stereotypes in News Media
écrit avec Elliott Ash, Mariia Grebenshchikova and Carlo Schwarz
We propose and validate a new method to measure gender and ethnic stereotypes in news
reports, using computer vision tools to assess the gender, race and ethnicity of individuals
depicted in article images. Applying this approach to 700,000 web articles published in the New
York Times and Fox News between 2000 and 2020, we find that males and whites are
overrepresented relative to their population share, while women and Hispanics are
underrepresented. Relating images to text, we find that news content perpetuates common
stereotypes such as associating Blacks and Hispanics with low-skill jobs, crime, and poverty, and
Asians with high-skill jobs and science. Analyzing news coverage of specific jobs, we show that
racial stereotypes hold even after controlling for the actual share of a group in a given occupation.
Finally, we document that group representation in the news is influenced by the gender and ethnic
identity of authors and editors.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 06/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1-14, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
LACLAU Marie (HEC)
Communication on networks and strong reliability (joint with L. Renou and X. Venel)
We consider sender-receiver games, where the sender and the receiver are two distant nodes on a communication network. We show that if the network has two disjoint paths of communication between the sender and the receiver, then we can replicate not only all equilibrium outcomes of the direct communication game (i.e., when the sender and the receiver communicate directly with each other), but also of the mediated game (i.e., when the sender and the receiver communicate with the help of a mediator).
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 05/10/2022 de 12:00 à 13:00
Salle R 1.13, Campus Jourdan
CASI-EBERHARD Elisa (Norwegian School of Economics)
So close and yet so far: The ability of mandatory disclosure rules to crack down on offshore tax evasion
écrit avec Mohammed Mardan and Rohit R. Muddasani
We study the short-term effect of the introduction of the mandatory disclosure program for aggressive tax arrangements by focusing on the one introduced in May 2018 under the Council Directive 2018/288/EU (or DAC6). Employing bilateral data on cross-border deposits, we study the effect of this new disclosure requirement on cross-border tax evasion. Our results show a reduction of cross-border deposits in EU countries with a strong enforcement, captured by large monetary penalties for misreporting. At the same time, we document a relocation of income and wealth to countries with limited intermediary reporting obligation. Finally, we detect an increase in the volume of cross-border deposits from countries offering citizenship/residence by investment programs, suggesting the use of these schemes as regulatory arbitrage to circumvent the disclosure mandated under DAC6. We provide timely and relevant evidence contributing to the debate on international administrative cooperation to reduce cross-border tax evasion.
Economic History Seminar
Du 05/10/2022 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan
MOHR Cathrin (University of Bonn )
Who makes it in an Autocracy? Networks and Political Careers in the GDR
écrit avec Leonie Bielefeld
We study the link between networks and political careers in former autocratic East Germany. Using detailed CV data on potential politicians and information about the official state hierarchy, we track and quantify career trajectories within the regime over time. Becoming connected to leading politicians can harm high-profile careers, while it has a positive effect on low-profile careers. We exploit exogenous networks that were formed through joint imprisonment during the Nazi Era. An extensive analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that the negative effect of being linked to the party leadership on individuals' probability to be part of the ruling elite is the result of anti-factionalism.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 04/10/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1.13
ELINA Eustache (PSE)
From labour income to wealth inequality : general equilibrium matters
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 04/10/2022 de 14:45 à 16:15
Sciences Po, 28 rue des Saints-Pères, 75007 Paris (M° Saint Germain des Prés), SALLE H 405
MANELICI Isabela (LSE)
Responsible Sourcing? Theory and Evidence from Costa Rica.
écrit avec A. Alfaro-Ureña, B. Faber, C. Gaubert, and J. P. Vasquez
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 04/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan
ÖZGÜZEL Cem (CES & IZA)
Trusting Immigrants
écrit avec Cevat Giray Aksoy (King’s College London)
We consider the role of early life experience in shaping political trust. We focus on immigrants encountering different political institutions in their native country and country of immigration. Individuals exposed to higher levels of political corruption before migrating vest more trust in the political institutions of their new country. We interpret this in terms of Kahneman and Tversky’s reference-point thesis, according to which corruption in an immigrant’s home country serves as a reference point for evaluating corruption in the host country. Large differences in levels of income and democracy in the immigrant’s countries of origin and destination amplify the impact of home-country corruption on evaluations of institutional performance in the destination country. Media exposure providing independent information about institutional performance in the destination country diminishes the effect.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 04/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan
ÖZGÜZEL Cem (CES & IZA)
Trusting Immigrants
écrit avec Cevat Giray Aksoy (King’s College London)
We consider the role of early life experience in shaping political trust. We focus on immigrants encountering different political institutions in their native country and country of immigration. Individuals exposed to higher levels of political corruption before migrating vest more trust in the political institutions of their new country. We interpret this in terms of Kahneman and Tversky’s reference-point thesis, according to which corruption in an immigrant’s home country serves as a reference point for evaluating corruption in the host country. Large differences in levels of income and democracy in the immigrant’s countries of origin and destination amplify the impact of home-country corruption on evaluations of institutional performance in the destination country. Media exposure providing independent information about institutional performance in the destination country diminishes the effect.
Du 04/10/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
AKSOY Cevat Giray (King’s College London)
Trusting Immigrants
écrit avec Cem Özgüzel (OECD)
We consider the role of early life experience in shaping political trust. We focus on immigrants encountering different political institutions in their native country and country of immigration. Individuals exposed to higher levels of political corruption before migrating vest more trust in the political institutions of their new country. We interpret this in terms of Kahneman and Tversky’s reference-point thesis, according to which corruption in an immigrant’s home country serves as a reference point for evaluating corruption in the host country. Large differences in levels of income and democracy in the immigrant’s countries of origin and destination amplify the impact of home-country corruption on evaluations of institutional performance in the destination country. Media exposure providing independent information about institutional performance in the destination country diminishes the effect.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 03/10/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
BUISSERET Peter (Department of Government, Harvard University)
Politics Transformed? Electoral Strategies under Ranked Choice Voting
We analyze a model of multi-candidate elections under plurality rule versus ranked choice voting (RCV). Candidates choose platforms either to target their core supporters, or instead to appeal to undecided voters. We present two main results. First, RCV intensifies candidates’ incentives to target their core supporters rather than pursue a broad policy appeal. Second, we unearth circumstances in which RCV increases the probability that a Condorcet loser wins the election. Our findings contradict widely-held contentions about RCV’s benefits, relative to plurality rule elections.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 03/10/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
MANSUR Erin (Dartmouth College)
*Decarbonization and Electrification in the Long Run
Decarbonization will require a completely transformed electricity grid. We analyze a long-run model that captures crucial aspects of the electricity industry such as time-varying demand for electricity, intermittency of renewables, optimal use of storage technologies, and entry and exit of generation and storage capacity. Long-run effects can differ in surprising ways from short-run intuition: A carbon tax can increase electricity consumption; cheaper storage may lead to a decrease in renewable capacity by decreasing prices when renewables are operating; and an increase in electricity demand (e.g., electrification) may lead to a decrease in emissions if it induces sufficient renewable entry. Using hourly data for the U.S. market, we calibrate the model to evaluate decarbonization policies. A carbon price of $150 or more essentially eliminates carbon emissions. Given a modest decarbonization goal, a renewable subsidy performs better than a nuclear subsidy, but this ranking is reversed for an ambitious decarbonization goal. Policies promoting transmission or storage are unlikely to yield significant benefits
unless paired with subsidies for renewables. Electrifying 100% of car miles traveled (thereby eliminating gasoline vehicle carbon emissions) would increase electricity-sector carbon emissions by 23-27% if vehicles are charged at night, but could decrease electricity-sector carbon emissions if vehicles are charged during the day.