Calendrier du mois de mars 2022
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 31/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
AHLFELDT Gabriel (LSE)
Optimal minimum wages
écrit avec Duncan Roth and Tobias Seidel
We develop a quantitative spatial model with heterogeneous firms and a monopsonistic labour market to derive minimum wages that maximize employment or welfare. Quantifying the model for German micro regions, we find that the German minimum wage, set at 48% of the national mean wage, has increased aggregate worker welfare by about 2.1% at the cost or reducing employment by about 0.3%. The welfare-maximizing federal minimum wage, at 60% of the national mean wage, would increase aggregate worker welfare by 4%, but reduce employment by 5.6%. An employment-maximizing regional wage, set at 50% of the regional mean wage, would achieve a similar aggregate welfare effect and increase employment by 1.1%.
Texte intégral
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 31/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1-14 Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
CASELLA Alessandra (Columbia)
Delegation under Liquid Democracy: One Experiment and a Half
Under Liquid Democracy (LD), decisions are taken by referendum, but voters are allowed to delegate their votes to other voters. LD has been heralded as the golden medium between direct and representative democracy: better than the former because experts can be delegated votes and thus weigh more; better than the latter because different experts can be chosen for each decision, according to their specific competences. When experts are correctly identified, LD shifts voting weight from a larger number of less informed voters towards fewer better-informed voters. Theory shows that the outcome can be superior to simple majority voting. However, by reducing the number of voters, delegation reduces the variety of independent information sources. Optimal delegation is counter-intuitively rare. We report the results of a lab experiment where by design experts are correctly identified and yet systematic over-delegation leads to LD underperforming relative to simple majority. A second experiment, run on a large electorate online, will have a different design, making it possible for some information to be worse than random. We hypothesize that in such an environment, closer to the confused conditions in which political decisions are made, LD may perform better, relative to majority voting.
Behavior seminar
Du 31/03/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
SESSION CANCELLED
DOLTON Peter (University of Sussex)
Is Football a Matter of Life and Death – Or is it more Important than that?
écrit avec George MacKerron (University of Sussex)
Football is the national sport of most of the planet. This paper examines how happy the outcomes of football matches make us. We calibrate these results relative to other activities and estimate the dynamic effects these exogenous events have on our utility over time. We find that football – on average – makes us unhappier – so why would we go through the pain of following a football team? This behavioural choice paradox occupies much of the paper, so we investigate why we go on following our teams, even though matches make us more unhappy on average. We examine how much our story changes if we examine the dynamic effects of football matches over time in different hours before and after the game and the extent to which our happiness is influenced by what we would rationally expect the result to be beforehand – as based on the betting odds.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 31/03/2022
LANE Philip (ECB)
With Lecture Chaire Banque de France
Paris Migration and Demographic Economics Seminar (PMDES)
Du 30/03/2022 de 17:30 à 19:00
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan
DUSTMANN Christian (UCL)
Labor Market Effects of Immigration – Identification and Interpretation
écrit avec joint with Sebastian Otten, Uta Schönberg and Jan Stuhler
This paper revisits the literature on the effects immigration has on native wages and employment. We show that the regional employment effect as identified by prior studies can be decomposed into an individual displacement effect, a reallocation effect, and a crowding out effect. Exploiting quasi-experimental variation in the supply of foreign workers across German regions, we document that the individual displacement effect on existing workers constitutes only a small fraction of the regional effect. We then document a similar identification problem in the estimation of immigration’s effect on wages, distinguishing the effect on the regional wage from its effect on the price of labor that abstracts from compositional changes induced by workers entering or leaving a region exposed to immigration. While the short-run effect on the price of labor is negative, the impact on regional wages is negligible. These results suggest that prior studies on cross-sectional data offer only limited insights into two central questions: how immigration affects the price of labor, and how immigration affects the labor market outcomes of native workers.
Development Economics Seminar
Du 30/03/2022 de 16:30 à 17:30
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan
KU Hyejin (UCL)
The Rise of China and the Global Production of Scientific Knowledge
écrit avec Joint with Tianrui Mu (UCL)
Scientific progress is more important than ever in tackling many challenges the world faces. Recently, the momentum for new developments has shifted eastward, in particular as China has dramatically expanded its scientific output. Today, China trails only the US as the world’s leading producer of high-quality scientific research. Understanding how China’s ascent has affected worldwide production of scientific knowledge is therefore of key importance. To shed light on the causal impact of China’s rise in science on research productivity elsewhere, we focus on the evolution of scientific publications at world-leading universities over 1996-2016, exploiting patterns of research collaborations between institutions. We find that non-Chinese universities that have stronger historical links to China collaborate substantially more with China in the late 2000s and also produce more scientific output in general. These effects are heterogeneous across research fields and also across the quality of research publications. We explore the movements of Chinese students going abroad and returning to China as a possible mechanism driving these findings.
Histoire des entreprises et de la finance
Du 30/03/2022 de 16:00 à 17:30
Salle R1.14, Campus Jourdan
EFFOSSE Sabine (Université Paris Nanterre)
The banking emancipation of married women in 20th Century France
Economic History Seminar
Du 30/03/2022 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan
BENGTSSON Erik (Lund University)
Incomes and Income Inequality in Stockholm, 1870–1970: Evidence from Micro Data
écrit avec with Jakob Molinder (Uppsala)
This paper builds on a new dataset of 36,630 randomly sampled Stockholm residents from the population register, which was also the income tax list, with information about people’s incomes of various types, age, and household composition, in the years 1870, 1880, 1900, 1920, 1940 and 1950. We use this dataset, along with a Statistics Sweden random sample of 67,733 Stockholm residents from 1970, to calculate the growth and distribution of incomes in Stockholm over a hundred years. The Gini coefficient for adults with incomes fell from about 60 in 1870 to about 50 in 1900, then increased again to almost 60 in 1920. There was a large equalization to 1940, with a Gini coefficient of slightly above 46, and further equalization to slightly above 40 in 1950 and just below 40 in 1970. The share of total income accruing to the top decile was quite stable 1870–1920 (while the top one percent’s share grew 1900–1920) and fell steeply afterwards. Women constitute the lion’s share of the bottom half of income earners. Domestic service was very low paid and the single most common occupation in the city but decreased as share of working-class jobs from 45 percent in 1870 to 10 percent in 1950. Using birthplace information in the 1940 and 1950 data, we also show that domestic migrants could improve their income significantly by moving to Stockholm. We also study inequality on the household level. The (long-run decreasing) trend is very similar on the household level compared to the individual level, but while inequality was slightly higher on the household level in 1870 and 1880, it was more equal than individual-level inequality in 1950.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 29/03/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13, Zoom link: https://zoom.us/j/94740575953
NG Robin (UC Louvain)
TBA
Virtual Development Economics Seminar
Du 29/03/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
On line
CASEY Kate (Standford University & CEPR)
Scaling Political Information Campaigns
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 29/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.09 PSE
NEEF Theresa (Halle Institute for Economic Research & World Inequality Lab)
When capitalism takes over socialism: (missing) capital and East-West-German income inequality
écrit avec Stefan Bach (DIW Berlin), Charlotte Bartels (DIW Berlin)
Thirty years after the German reunification, differences in income, wealth and living standards between East and West German households persist. Economic convergence is slowing down, while resentment and extreme voting behaviour are on the rise. In recent years, a critical debate about the adequacy of policies accompanying the German reunification has rekindled. This paper explores the reasons behind the persisting income differences by constructing Distributional National Accounts (DINA) for East and West Germany. We use the universe of individual income taxpayers, complement it with information on non-filers recorded in SOEP survey data and align incomes with National Accounts aggregates. This allows us to study the distribution of pre-tax income since 1990. We find that East German residents are still underrepresented at the top of the national income distribution and relate this finding to a lack of capital ownership among East Germans. At the macro level, this phenomenon is mirrored by capital income generated in East Germany flowing to West German capital owners.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 28/03/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R2.01 - Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
GOLUB Ben (Northwestern University)
Taxes and Market Power: A Network Approach
écrit avec Andrea Galeotti, Benjamin Golub, Sanjeev Goyal, Eduard Talamas, Omer Tamuz
Suppliers of differentiated goods make simultaneous pricing decisions, which are strategically linked. Because of market power, the equilibrium is inefficient. We study how a policymaker should target a budget-balanced tax-and-subsidy policy to increase welfare. A key tool is a certain basis for the goods space, determined by the network of interactions among suppliers. It consists of eigenbundles---orthogonal in the sense that a tax on any eigenbundle passes through only to its own price---with pass-through coefficients determined by associated eigenvalues. Our basis permits a simple characterization of optimal interventions. A planner maximizing consumer surplus should tax eigenbundles with low pass-through and subsidize ones with high pass-through. The Pigouvian leverage of the system---the gain in consumer surplus achievable by an optimal tax scheme---depends only on the dispersion of the eigenvalues of the matrix of strategic interactions. We interpret these results in terms of the network structure of the market.
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 28/03/2022 de 13:00 à 14:00
Maison des Sciences Economiques, Salle S/03
VERDINI Daniele (UCLouvain, FNRS)
Globalization and Market Power
écrit avec Catherine Fuss (National Bank of Belgium) & Lorenzo Trimarchi (University of Namur)
Recent decades have been characterized by a substantial increase in firms' market power both in the U.S. and the EU. In this paper, we study the role played by globalization in determining the evolution of this phenomenon. We use detail firm-level balance sheet and trade data for Belgian manufacturing over the period 2000-2015, and following the identification strategy proposed in Acemoglu et al. (2016), we provide a causal analysis of the impact of rising trade exposure on various measures of market power. Along standard concentration measures, we estimate firm-level markups over the period by applying De Loecker and Warzynski (2012) methodology. We estimate that, following the surge of Chinese import competition, relatively more exposed industries do experience an increase in markups over time. These changes are not driven by reallocation between firms, but by within adjustments of the incumbents.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 28/03/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
DOBKOWITZ Sonja (University of Bonn)
Redistribution, Demand, and Sustainable Production
PSE Internal Seminar
Du 25/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1-09
ANDREESCU Marie(PSE)
MACé Antonin(PSE)
Voting in Shareholders Meetings
This paper studies the informational efficiency of voting mechanisms in shareholder
meetings. When the management does not affect the proposal being voted on, we
show that voting mechanisms are more efficient when their ballot space is richer.
Moreover, efficiency requires full divisibility of the votes. When the management has
agenda power, we uncover a novel trade-off?: more efficient mechanisms provide worse
incentives to select good proposals. This negative effect can be large enough to wash
out the higher voting efficiency of even the most efficient mechanisms.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 24/03/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
Using Zoom
SCHMITT-GROHE Stéphanie(Columbia)
EDOUARD SCHAAL AND Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel()
Optimal Bank Reserve Remuneration and Capital Control Policy
écrit avec Chun-Che Chi and Martin Uribe
A central prediction of open economy models with a pecuniary externality due to a collateral constraint is that the unregulated economy overborrows relative to what occurs under optimal capital controls. A maintained assumption in this literature is that households borrow directly from foreign lenders. This paper shows that in a more realistic setting in which foreign lending to households is intermediated by domestic banks and in which the government has access to capital controls and interest on bank reserves, the unregulated economy underborrows. Under optimal policy, the central bank injects reserves during recessions. In this way, when the collateral constraint binds, the central bank uncouples household deleveraging from economy-wide delever- aging, which results in a higher average level of external debt. The paper documents that during the 2007-2009 global financial crisis the lending spread in emerging and developed economies displayed a muted response. This fact is consistent with a decline in the demand rather than in the supply of loans and gives credence to models in which the collateral constraint is placed at the level of the nonfinancial sector as opposed to at the level of the bank.
brown bag Travail et Économie Publique
Du 24/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
GOEDDE Julius (PSE)
The long run impact of childhood interracial contact on residential segregation
écrit avec LUCA PAOLO MERLINO and MAX FRIEDRICH STEINHARDT
This paper investigates whether interracial contact in childhood impacts residential choices in adulthood. We exploit quasi-random variation in the share of black students across cohorts within US schools. We find that more
black peers of the same gender in a grade induces whites to live in blacker census tracts more than 20 years after exposure. We do not find any effect on labor market outcomes or other neighborhood characteristics, suggesting the most likely mechanism is a change in preferences of respondents
Behavior seminar
Du 24/03/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
Online and Room R2.01, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
NAGEL Rosemarie (ICREA, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE, Spain)
Integrating Level-k, Efficiency Heuristics, and a Behavioral Taxonomy for 2x2 Games
The outcomes from strategic decision-making (such as market entry or technology adoption) depend on structural features of situations and types of players involved. Even in identical situations, players differ in their perceptions of situations, goals, and strategic sophistication. Informed by behavioral and experimental economics, we present and integrate two classes of heuristic player types under strategic uncertainty in new situations, exemplified within the simplest class of games, two players–two actions (2x2) games, e.g., Prisoner's dilemma or Entry games. One class anticipates others' behavior and (iteratedly) best-replies to beliefs (called iterated reasoning or level-k heuristic), while the other is guided by goals, e.g., equality or social optimum, ignoring procedural details, such as others'reasoning (called efficiency heuristic). To understand the implications of game structure and player types, we develop a behavioral system of 2x2 games. Due to the fundamental differences of the two classes, the large set of 2x2 games collapses to four distinct game classes for efficiency types and five, albeit different ones, for iterated reasoning, and to 14 in a joint system based on (behavioral) gametheoretic features. Thus, advanced knowledge of players' strategic capabilities or goals considerably simplifies the strategic analysis by inducing a categorization of games. Furthermore, we predict differences in the heterogeneity of behavior and outcomes, depending on the presence of different player types and game structure.
Development Economics Seminar
Du 23/03/2022 de 16:30 à 17:45
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan
SERNEELS Pieter (Universty of East Anglia)
The collective action mechanism in community-based monitoring of public services.
écrit avec with Abigail Barr, Frederick Mugisha, Andrew Zeitlin
We conducted an experiment to test one mechanism through which community monitoring of public services may operate. Working with the Government of Uganda, we randomly assigned schools and their management committees to two variants of a score card. Community based score cards are found to have higher impact than standardised ones on teacher absenteeism and pupil enrolment, presence and learning, by individual or joint testing employing randomisation inference. They also induce higher cooperation, measured directly through a public goods game. Further analysis rules out information as an alternative channel. Mediation analysis confirms that a substantial share of impact stems from collective action.
Histoire des entreprises et de la finance
Du 23/03/2022 de 14:30 à 16:00
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan
HOšMAN Mirek Tobiáš (Université Paris Cité)
No Longer a Bank: The Economists’ Takeover at the World Bank
Economic History Seminar
Du 23/03/2022 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan
DAUDIN Guillaume (Université Paris Dauphine)
Not “easy to win”: The British war on French trade, 1744-1815
International trade is one of the main issues at stake in the rivalry between powers. The British war on French trade from the War of Austrian Succession to the fall of Napoleon gives us a lesson on how to win it when outright destruction is not an option. We suggest a measure of the achievements of a war on French trade. We present the policies implemented by Britain to wage it: establishment of naval supremacy, overseas territorial capture, predation on French ships and extension of this predation to neutral carriers. We show that long term success implied a durable change in the structure of French trade. Finally, we compute that, compared to loses inflicted on the French economy, waging this war on trade was a costly endeavor.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 22/03/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13, Zoom link: https://zoom.us/j/94740575953
HéLIE Julia ()
TBA
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 22/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.09 PSE
ZHURAVSKAYA Ekaterina (PSE)
Independent Media, Propaganda, and Religiosity
écrit avec Irena Grosfeld, Seyhun Orcan Sakalli, and Etienne Madinier
Can media affect religious behavior? We study the effect of a drastic change in the media landscape on religious participation in Poland, a country, where the vast majority of the population considers itself Catholics. Before 2015, news on mainstream public and private media outlets had a similar moderately-liberal slant. In 2015, a right-wing populist party Law and Justice (PiS) came to power and took control of the editorial policy of public media, introducing a substantial conservative pro-government and pro-Church bias in public-media broadcast. A private TV network, TVN, remained the main source of freely available independent-from-the-government news on Polish television. In a difference-in-differences setting, we exploit spatial variation in TVN signal, sufficiently good for reception in about two-thirds of the country, and the overtime change in the content of the major state-owned TV network, which has good reception almost everywhere. We document that, after PiS came to power, religious participation fell more in municipalities with access to TVN compared to municipalities receiving only state TV signal. Using a large-scale online randomization experiment, we examine the effects of exposure to different types of content available only via independent media. We show that exposing both the pedophilia within the Church and the mutual financial and political support between the Church and the ruling PiS party decreases trust in religious institutions, but the effect of exposing pedophilia scandals is stronger. The experiment's results persist for at least three weeks.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 21/03/2022 de 17:30 à 19:00
Online
SHAPIRO Joseph (UC Berkeley)
Regulating Untaxable Externalities: Are Vehicle Air Pollution Standards Effective and Efficient?
What is a feasible and efficient policy to regulate air pollution from vehicles? A Pigou-vian tax is technologically infeasible. Most countries instead rely on exhaust standards that limit air pollution emissions per mile for new vehicles. We assess the effectiveness and efficiency of these standards, which are the centerpiece of US Clean Air Act regulation of transportation, and counterfactual policies. We show that the air pollution emissions per mile of new US vehicles has fallen spectacularly, by over 99 percent, since standards began in 1967. Several research designs with a half century of data suggest that exhaust standards have caused most of this decline. Yet exhaust standards are not cost-effective in part because they fail to encourage scrap of older vehicles, which account for the majority of emissions. To study counterfactual policies, we develop an analytical and a quantitative model of the vehicle fleet. Analysis of these models suggests that tighter exhaust standards increase social welfare and that increasing registration fees on dirty vehicles yields even larger gains by accelerating scrap, though both reforms have complex effects on inequality.
Econometrics Seminar
Du 21/03/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
DOVONON Prosper (Concordia University)
Specification Testing for Conditional Moment Restrictions under Local Identification Failure
écrit avec Co-author: Nikolay Gospodinov
In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of the specification test in conditional moment restrictions model under first-order local identification failure with dependent data. More specifically, we obtain conditions under which the conventional specification test for conditional moment restrictions remains valid when first-order local identification fails but global identification is still attainable. In the process, we obtain some novel intermediate results that include extending the first- and second-order local identification framework to models defined by conditional moment restrictions, characterizing the rate of convergence of the GMM estimator and the limiting representation for degenerate U-statistics under strong mixing dependence. Simulation and empirical results illustrate the properties and the practical relevance of the proposed testing framework.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 21/03/2022
Salle R2.21 - Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
LIANG Annie (Northwestern University)
Algorithmic Design: Fairness Versus Accuracy
écrit avec joint with Jay Lu and Xiaosheng Mu
Algorithms are increasingly used to guide consequential decisions, such as who should be granted bail or be approved for a loan. Motivated by growing empirical evidence, regulators are concerned about the possibility that the errors of these algorithms differ sharply across subgroups of the population. What are the tradeoffs between accuracy and fairness, and how do these tradeoffs depend on the inputs to the algorithm? We propose a model in which a designer chooses an algorithm that maps observed inputs into decisions, and introduce a fairness-accuracy Pareto frontier. We identify how the algorithm's inputs govern the shape of this frontier, showing (for example) that access to group identity reduces the error for the worse-off group everywhere along the frontier. We then apply these results to study an ``input-design" problem where the designer controls the algorithm's inputs (for example, by legally banning an input), but the algorithm itself is chosen by another agent. We show that: (1) all designers strictly prefer to allow group identity if and only if the algorithm's other inputs satisfy a condition we call group-balance; (2) all designers strictly prefer to allow any input (including potentially biased inputs such as test scores) so long as group identity is permitted as an input, but may prefer to ban it when group identity is not.
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 18/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2-01
RENK Andréa (PSE and Université de Namur)
Who gains from increased rights? Women empowerment, patriarchy and violence in Nepal
Behavior Working Group
Du 18/03/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
MSE (114)
SAUCET Charlotte ()
*
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 17/03/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
LEVCHENKO Andrei (University of Michigan)
News Media and International Fluctuations
écrit avec Ha Bui, University of Texas at Austin and Zhen Huo, Yale University
We develop a multi-country multi-sector model with global value chains and informational frictions. Producers in a sector do not perfectly observe shocks to other countries and sectors, and their output decisions respond to beliefs about the productivity innovations worldwide. To discipline the agents’ information sets, we collect a novel quarterly dataset of the frequencies of industry-specific economic news reports by leading newspapers in the G7 plus Spain. Newspapers in each country publish articles on select events in both domestic and partner-country sectors, and not every event is reported worldwide. We show in reduced-form regressions that (i) greater news coverage is associated with smaller GDP forecast errors; and (ii) sectors more covered in the news exhibit greater business cycle comovement, even controlling for their trade intensity. We then use the news coverage data to discipline the key parameters in the quantitative model, namely the precision of the public signals about country-sector productivities. Noise shocks about TFP throughout the global value chain can be a quantitatively important source of international GDP comovement. Furthermore, these shocks would appear as labor wedges in standard models without dispersed information.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 17/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
LEUVEN Edwin (U. Oslo)
Sorting, Screening and College Admission
Quantitative measures of academic preparedness play a key role in college admissions around the world. We study the use of high-school GPA as opposed to the use of alternative objective and subjective criteria in college admission. Our context is the Danish higher education system where most programs admit applicants in two quotas. In a first quota, admission is based on high-school GPA. If rejected, applicants can also compete in a second quota where candidates are ranked on alternative criteria such as the subjective evaluation of CVs, essays and interviews, or specific grades and college entry tests. Applicants in both quotas are ranked and admitted based on their rank priority score. We show conceptually that alternative evaluation can affect admission outcomes through two channels; on the one hand it can affect selection into application, while on the other it will change screening conditional on application. We build on the features of the admission process to implement a regression discontinuity design across the two quotas to estimate how admission affects program and college completion. We investigate the relative importance of sorting and screen, and investigate how admission outcomes depends on the evaluative criteria used.
PEPES (Paris Empirical Political Economics) Working Group
Du 17/03/2022 de 12:30 à 14:00
Salle R2.01, Campus Jourdan
PASQUAMARIA SQUICCIARINI Mara (Bocconi)
Religiosity and Science: an Oxymoron? Evidence from the Great Influenza Pandemic
écrit avec joint with Enrico Berkes, Davide Coluccia, and Gaia Dossi
This paper studies the impact of the Spanish influenza pandemic (1918-20) on religiosity and science. Focusing on the United States during the 1900-1930 period, we define a novel indicator of revealed religiosity that leverages naming patterns of newborn babies, and measure scientific progress through the universe of patents granted over this period. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the pandemic, we find that relatively more affected counties became both more religious and more innovative. Moreover, we document that the relationship between religiosity and science changed over time, being negative before 1918, and positive thereafter, a finding at odds with the current literature. We use individual-level data to shed light on the mechanisms. We show that in counties affected by the pandemic: i) individuals in science-related fields, who were less religious before the shock, became even less religious than the rest of the population; ii) pre-existing differences in religiosity increased, leading to a polarization of religious beliefs.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 17/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.15, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
GOURSAT Laure (PSE)
How Do I Know How Much I Like You? Valuation and v-stability for matching markets with incomplete information
In this project, I set a one-to-one matching market with no transfer and incomplete information - only the current state of the market (matching and realized match utilities) is observed. I wonder: (1) How do agents estimate counterfactual match utilities? (2) How does this estimation affect the market outcome? To address those questions, (1) I define a heuristic termed “valuation” - an agent who considers blocking with a target extrapolates from his current utility and the current utility of the target’s current partner. (2) I characterize v-stable matchings – unblocked matchings when blocking decisions are based on comparisons of valuations. The necessary and sufficient condition for v-stability is “happiness sorting” - any two partners must hold the same within-side rank according to realized match utilities. Working with various standard classes of preferences illustrates that the size and relation to the u-stable set are very changeable. In the general case, the lack of existence of a v-stable matching and the lack of convergence of a dynamic decentralized v-blocking pair process predict persistent moves on the market. I consider several extensions of the valuation heuristic: accounting for the possibility of unmatched agents, allowing extrapolation on the utility’s arguments rather than on the utilities themselves, generalizing to mixed matchings.
Behavior seminar
Du 17/03/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan, 75014 Paris
MULLER Laurent (GAEL)
A Global & Analytical Willingness-to-Pay Elicitation Method. The case of the Corporate Social Responsibility attribute for wine
This paper develops a willingness-to-pay elicitation method that combines the strengths of choice experiments and experimental auctions. While these tools are standard for estimating consumer values of goods and their attributes, they tend to produce dissimilar results since their methodological discrepancies may trigger distinct types of behaviour. The Global & Analytical willingness-to-pay elicitation method (G&A method) generates for each individual two measures of willingness-to-pay, one derived from an initial holistic approach and the other from a reflective assessment about the relative importance of the attributes composing the good. We applied this method to the wine market, and in particular to the question of how consumers value the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) attribute. We show that while analytical assessment leads to reduced willingness-to-pay for wine, the marginal willingness-to-pay for CSR increases relatively to the other attributes.
Histoire des entreprises et de la finance
Du 16/03/2022 de 16:00 à 17:30
Salle R1.14, Campus Jourdan
MAJERUS Benoît (Université du Luxembourg)
Holdings financières au Luxembourg
Economic History Seminar
Du 16/03/2022 de 14:00 à 15:30
On Line 14h -15h 30
STELZNER Mark (Connecticut College)
The Productivity Growth of Enslaved Workers in Antebellum America.
écrit avec with Sven BECKERT
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PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 15/03/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13, Zoom link: https://zoom.us/j/94740575953
ASAI Kentaro (PSE)
Working hour reform and labor demand: evidence from Portugal
Virtual Development Economics Seminar
Du 15/03/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
On line
WOODRUF Chris (University of Oxford, BREAD & CEPR)
Long-run Effects of Cash Grants: The Sri Lanka Microenterprise Project after 10 years
écrit avec w. S. De Mel and D. McKenzie
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 15/03/2022 de 14:30 à 16:00
PSE, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
DORN David (U. Zurich and CEPR)
No Help for the Heartland? The US Employment Effects of the Trump Tariffs
écrit avec D. Autor, A. Beck and G. Hanson
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 15/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan
BARRERA Oscar (Paris School of Economics)
Information and Normative Economics on Attitudes Towards the Top one Percent
écrit avec Emmanuel Chavez
We study the effects of providing quantitative information and normative economics about top earners on people's attitudes towards the richest 1 percent. We conduct an online experiment with 2000 French participants assigned randomly to either only quantitative information on top earners' income levels and their respective sources of income (capital vs. labor), or to quantitative information plus normative egalitarian interpretations. We find that: (i) respondents overestimate the income of the richest 1 percent and want them to pay a higher income tax rate than the current one. (ii) Quantitative information shifts attitudes about top earners towards the unfavorable spectrum. This effect comes mainly from information on the sources of income. (iii) Quantitative information by itself does not affect preferences towards the top income tax rate. In contrast, (iv) quantitative and normative egalitarian interpretations lead respondents to choose a higher income tax rate for the richest 1 percent.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 14/03/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1.09 - Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
CURELLO Gregorio (U of Bonn )
Incentives for Collective Innovation
GSIELM (Graduate Students International Economics and Labor Market) Lunch Seminar
Du 14/03/2022 de 13:00 à 14:00
MSE(106, Blv de l'Hôpital, salle Banquier: S03) 75013 Paris
BOCQUET Leonard (PSE)
The Network Origin of Slow Labor Reallocation
There is a growing concern that the reallocation of worker might be quite slow after trade or technological shocks. In this paper, I study the determinants of the speed of the worker reallocation process. My first contribution is to document the extent of frictions to occupational mobility thwarting the reallocation process. The basic idea is that skill dissimilarity prevents workers to achieve certain professional transitions. The originality of my approach is to view these frictions as representing a network, whose nodes are occupations and edges are possible occupational transitions. I find that this network is sparse, hinting at large frictions to occupational mobility, and that some highly central occupations have the potential to block the entire reallocation process. Second, I build a model of search and matching of the labor market, which I augment with an occupational network. I give an analytical characterization of the equilibrium and clarify how the occupational network shapes the distribution of equilibrium wages and tightness ratios. Perhaps surprisingly, I find that the steady-state worker distribution is quite similar to that of the standard model but that the transition dynamics are very different. I show that the model can account for transition dynamics which are two orders of magnitude slower than predicted by the standard model. Therefore, this model suggests an explanation for the sluggishness of labor market adjustments after certain shocks.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 14/03/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
LAUKKANEN Marita (VATT)
*Vehicle scrappage subsidies as a climate policy tool: program effects on new car emission intensity
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 11/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2-01
LEPAULT Claire (PSE)
Is urban wastewater treatment effective in India?
EPCI (Economie politique du changement institutionnel) Seminar
Du 11/03/2022 de 11:00 à 12:30
Salle 19, Maison des Sciences Économiques, 112 Bd de l'Hôpital, 75013 Paris
HäUSERMANN Silja (University of Zurich, Department of Political Science)
Welfare State Politics in a Transforming European Party System
The rise of the knowledge economy has changed the social policy agenda in Western Europe and the transformation of electoral competition in Europe has changed the set political movements and parties that shape welfare politics. The result is a new configuration of welfare politics in terms of issues and actors, with the potential to deeply transform social policies in Europe. The talk presents findings from a ongoing ERC-project. It will show that despite these transformations, European welfare politics is still profoundly shaped by a class divide. However, the object of this class divide relates less to the extent than to the type of social policy voters and parties prefer: while working class voters and constituencies priorities social transfers, middle class voters and constituencies emphasize social investment. The talk discusses different explanatory mechanisms for this class divide, putting forward an explanation based on differentials in perceived economic opportunities in the knowledge economy.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 10/03/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-01
RENNE Jean-Paul (HEC Lausanne)
FISCAL LIMITS AND THE PRICING OF EUROBONDS
écrit avec KEVIN PALLARA
This paper proposes a methodology to price bonds jointly issued by a group of countries—Eurobonds in the euro-area context. We consider two types of bonds: the first is backed by several and joint (SJG) guarantees, the second features several but not joint (SNJG) guarantees. The pricing of SJG and SNJG bonds reflects different assumptions regarding the pooling of debtors’ fiscal resources. We estimate fiscal limits for the four largest euro-area economies over 2008-2021 and deduce counterfactual Eurobond prices. Amid the euro-debt crisis, 5-year SNJG bond yield spreads would have been about three times larger than SJG ones. Hence, issuing SJG bonds would result in gains at the ag-gregate level. We finally show that (i) the gains stemming from the issuance of SJG bonds could be shared among countries through post-issuance redistribu-
tion schemes and that (ii) these schemes may alleviate the reduction in market discipline resulting from common bonds issuances.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 10/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.15, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
HAGENBACH Jeanne (Sciences Po)
Motivated vs. Skeptical Beliefs
écrit avec Charlotte Saucet (University Paris 1)
This experiment aims at studying how individuals reconcile the formation of equilibrium beliefs and the formation of motivated beliefs in strategic settings of asymmetric information. Subjects play several rounds of Sender-Receiver disclosure games, in which the Receiver's equilibrium beliefs are skeptical. The experimental treatments affect whether or not the Receiver has intrinsic preferences over what he/she believes. We then vary whether the skeptical beliefs are aligned or not with the Receiver's preferred beliefs. We show that the Receivers' level of skepticism is lower when the skeptical beliefs are self-threatening than when Receivers have no preferences over beliefs. When the skeptical beliefs are self-serving, skepticism is not significantly enhanced compared to the case where Receivers have no preferences over beliefs. We investigate the role of Receivers' IQ and priors on the beliefs they form.
brown bag Travail et Économie Publique
Du 10/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
VIDALENC Basile (PSE)
Optimal Eligibility for Unemployment Benefits
A minimum employment history is usually an eligibility condition to receive unemployment benefits. This paper characterizes its optimal level when unemployment risks are heterogeneous. First, by modeling the trajectory of workers on the labor market, I show that the optimal requirement follows a selection versus moral hazard in employment and unemployment trade-off. Second, thanks to french administrative data, I identify the behavioral responses to a requirement variation by using a bunching method and a regression kink design. These statistics are sufficient to assess the welfare implications of an eligibility change and to bound the optimal requirement. An eligibility reform has heterogeneous welfare implications within the labor force and its overall effect depends on the risk distribution and on frictions.
Behavior seminar
Du 10/03/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
VAN DE WEELE Joël (University of Amsterdam)
Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking
écrit avec with Jan Engelmann, Mael Lebreton, Nahuel Salem-Garcia and Peter Schwardmann
It is widely hypothesized that anxiety about adverse future outcomes motivates people to adopt comforting beliefs or to engage in wishful thinking. However, there is little direct causal evidence for this effect. In a first experiment, participants perform a visual pattern recognition task where some patterns may result in the delivery of an electric shock, a proven way of inducing anxiety. Participants engage in significant wishful thinking: they are less likely to correctly identify patterns that they know may lead to a shock. A second and third experiment establish that participants also engage in wishful thinking in anticipation of monetary losses and that the phenomenon is robust to another perceptual task, which draws on different cognitive processes. Across our three experiments, greater ambiguity of the visual evidence is associated with more wishful thinking. Our within-subject design allows us to detect wishful thinking at the individual level. We find that wishful thinking is heterogeneous across and stable within individuals.
Histoire des entreprises et de la finance
Du 09/03/2022 de 16:00 à 17:30
Salle R1.14, Campus Jourdan
PITTELOUP Sabine (Université de Genève)
Avoir foi en la libre entreprise: Nestlé, ses actionnaires religieux et la politisation de l'Eglise (1970-1990)
Economic History Seminar
Du 09/03/2022 de 12:00 à 13:30
Salle R1.09, Campus Jourdan
HUBERMAN Michael (U.Montreal)
All Politics is Local: The Social Housing Experiment of Red Vienna, 1923-1933
The moderating effects of World War I on wealth and income inequality varied across belligerents. In Austria the state embraced austerity measures to restrain hyperinflation and respect commitments to the League of Nations. To fill the void, the Social Democratic Workers’ Party turned to its political stronghold in Vienna to advance its agenda of social spending and progressive taxation. In this paper, we cast attention on social housing, Red Vienna’s signature program. Applying an electoral-cycle model, we find that the construction of new buildings increased the party’s share of votes in municipal elections. The program mobilized the support of young families in search of affordable and quality housing. It also attracted the backing of the middle classes and elites, despite the higher tax burden imposed on them. The physical attributes of the new buildings and related investments, such as in schools, hospitals, and city infrastructure, benefited all Viennese.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 08/03/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13, Zoom link: https://zoom.us/j/94740575953
BOMARE Jeanne ()
TBA
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 08/03/2022 de 14:30 à 16:00
PSE, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
BAKKER Jan (Bocconi University)
Cities, Heterogenous Firms and Trade
écrit avec A. Garcia-Marin, A. Potlogea, N. Voigtländer, Y. Yang
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 08/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.09 PSE
SOUIDI Youssef (PSE)
Is the redrawing of catchment areas an effective tool for fighting against school segregation? Evidence from France
Default school assignment is often set through catchment areas. Usually drawn around schools, they are likely to reflect residential sorting. This paper focuses on the French context, where one third of students bypass the default assignment by resorting to opt-out options. Using novel geographic information data, I first show that neighboring schools sometimes dramatically differ in the social composition of their catchment area. It suggests that, despite residential sorting and current school siting, there is room for reducing segregation across schools' recruitment pools. In the second part of the paper, I evaluate the causal impact of a change in catchment areas’ boundaries on families’ short-term behavioral reactions using a difference-in-differences strategy. Preliminary
results show that changing such boundaries does not necessarily translate into more socially diverse schools. I find that, when assigned a lower performing school, both high-SES and low-SES families react by using opt-out options, but behavioral reactions are much stronger for high-SES families.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 07/03/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
Salle R1.09 - Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
ARNOSTI Nick (University of Michigan)
*
Econometrics Seminar
Du 07/03/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
BEYHUM Jad (ENSAI)
Instrumental variable estimation of dynamic treatment effects on a survival outcome
écrit avec Co-authors: Samuele Centorrino, Jean-Pierre Florens, and Ingrid Van Keilegom
This paper considers identification and estimation of the causal effect of the time Z until a subject is treated on a survival outcome T. The treatment is not randomly assigned, T is randomly right censored by a random variable C and the time to treatment Z is right censored by min(T,C) The endogeneity issue is treated using an instrumental variable explaining Z and independent of the error term of the model. We study identification in a fully nonparametric framework. We show that our specification generates an integral equation, of which the regression function of interest is a solution. We provide identification conditions that rely on this identification equation. For
estimation purposes, we assume that the regression function follows a parametric model. We propose an estimation procedure and give conditions under which the estimator is asymptotically normal. The estimators exhibit good finite sample properties in simulations. Our methodology is applied to find
evidence supporting the efficacy of a therapy for burn-out.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 07/03/2022 de 12:00 à 13:15
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
WAGNER Katherine (UBC)
Technology Lock-In and Optimal Carbon Pricing
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 03/03/2022
PANIZZA Ugo (Graduate Institute Geneva)
With Lecture Chaire Banque de France
Economic History Seminar
Du 02/03/2022 de 14:00 à 15:30
On line
WANG Yuhua (Harvard University)
The Rise and Fall of Imperial China
China was once the world’s leading superpower for almost two millennia, falling behind only in the last two centuries and now rising to dominance again. What factors led to imperial China’s decline? Yuhua Wang will discuss his new book The Rise and Fall of Imperial China, which offers a systematic look at the Chinese state from the seventh century through to the twentieth.
Virtual Development Economics Seminar
Du 01/03/2022 de 17:00 à 18:15
On line
RASUL Imran (UCL, IFS,BREAD & CEPR)
The Search for Good Jobs: Evidence from a Six-year Field Experiment in Uganda
écrit avec with O. Bandiera (LSE), V. Bassi (USC), R. Burgess (LSE), M. Sulaiman (BRAC) and A. Vitali (UCL)
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 01/03/2022 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-13, Zoom link: https://zoom.us/j/94740575953
VIDALENC Basile (PSE)
Optimal eligibility for unemployment insurance