Calendrier du 10 mars 2022
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 10/03/2022 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-01
RENNE Jean-Paul (HEC Lausanne)
FISCAL LIMITS AND THE PRICING OF EUROBONDS
écrit avec KEVIN PALLARA
This paper proposes a methodology to price bonds jointly issued by a group of countries—Eurobonds in the euro-area context. We consider two types of bonds: the first is backed by several and joint (SJG) guarantees, the second features several but not joint (SNJG) guarantees. The pricing of SJG and SNJG bonds reflects different assumptions regarding the pooling of debtors’ fiscal resources. We estimate fiscal limits for the four largest euro-area economies over 2008-2021 and deduce counterfactual Eurobond prices. Amid the euro-debt crisis, 5-year SNJG bond yield spreads would have been about three times larger than SJG ones. Hence, issuing SJG bonds would result in gains at the ag-gregate level. We finally show that (i) the gains stemming from the issuance of SJG bonds could be shared among countries through post-issuance redistribu-
tion schemes and that (ii) these schemes may alleviate the reduction in market discipline resulting from common bonds issuances.
Texte intégral
brown bag Travail et Économie Publique
Du 10/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
VIDALENC Basile (PSE)
Optimal Eligibility for Unemployment Benefits
A minimum employment history is usually an eligibility condition to receive unemployment benefits. This paper characterizes its optimal level when unemployment risks are heterogeneous. First, by modeling the trajectory of workers on the labor market, I show that the optimal requirement follows a selection versus moral hazard in employment and unemployment trade-off. Second, thanks to french administrative data, I identify the behavioral responses to a requirement variation by using a bunching method and a regression kink design. These statistics are sufficient to assess the welfare implications of an eligibility change and to bound the optimal requirement. An eligibility reform has heterogeneous welfare implications within the labor force and its overall effect depends on the risk distribution and on frictions.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 10/03/2022 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R1.15, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
HAGENBACH Jeanne (Sciences Po)
Motivated vs. Skeptical Beliefs
écrit avec Charlotte Saucet (University Paris 1)
This experiment aims at studying how individuals reconcile the formation of equilibrium beliefs and the formation of motivated beliefs in strategic settings of asymmetric information. Subjects play several rounds of Sender-Receiver disclosure games, in which the Receiver's equilibrium beliefs are skeptical. The experimental treatments affect whether or not the Receiver has intrinsic preferences over what he/she believes. We then vary whether the skeptical beliefs are aligned or not with the Receiver's preferred beliefs. We show that the Receivers' level of skepticism is lower when the skeptical beliefs are self-threatening than when Receivers have no preferences over beliefs. When the skeptical beliefs are self-serving, skepticism is not significantly enhanced compared to the case where Receivers have no preferences over beliefs. We investigate the role of Receivers' IQ and priors on the beliefs they form.
Behavior seminar
Du 10/03/2022 de 11:00 à 12:00
Salle R2.21, Campus Jourdan 75014 Paris
VAN DE WEELE Joël (University of Amsterdam)
Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking
écrit avec with Jan Engelmann, Mael Lebreton, Nahuel Salem-Garcia and Peter Schwardmann
It is widely hypothesized that anxiety about adverse future outcomes motivates people to adopt comforting beliefs or to engage in wishful thinking. However, there is little direct causal evidence for this effect. In a first experiment, participants perform a visual pattern recognition task where some patterns may result in the delivery of an electric shock, a proven way of inducing anxiety. Participants engage in significant wishful thinking: they are less likely to correctly identify patterns that they know may lead to a shock. A second and third experiment establish that participants also engage in wishful thinking in anticipation of monetary losses and that the phenomenon is robust to another perceptual task, which draws on different cognitive processes. Across our three experiments, greater ambiguity of the visual evidence is associated with more wishful thinking. Our within-subject design allows us to detect wishful thinking at the individual level. We find that wishful thinking is heterogeneous across and stable within individuals.